Feijóo's PP stops the rise of Vox and reaches the PSOE

The

after the change in the direction of the PP has boosted the electoral expectations of its new leader, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, and has disrupted the map that the polls had been defining.

For the first time so far this year, the popular ones manage to match the PSOE and dispute the first place in a hypothetical general election, according to the May 40dB barometer.

for EL PAÍS and Cadena SER.

The arreón of the PP with the arrival of Feijóo slows down the growth of Vox in recent months, while reinforcing the options of a government formula for the whole of the right.

The May barometer is the first in 2022 that gives the right a sufficient majority to regain power.

The sum of PP, Vox and the Navarrese regionalists would gather 174 seats, according to the average calculation of the work of 40dB., to which two other Citizens could be added.

If the upper part of the distribution brackets of deputies is taken, the two parties on the right would win a comfortable absolute majority.

Access to the database on which the sociological work is based is free and gratuitous.

The survey places PSOE and PP in a technical tie.

The Socialists would be slightly ahead in votes (26.2% compared to 25.8%), but the Popular would outperform them in deputies (108 to 106).

And this is happening not because the Socialists have regressed —some progress has even been detected in the last month of Pedro Sánchez's party—, but because of the great leap that the PP has made.

The recovery of the popular ones was already noted in the previous barometer for April and is fully consolidated in this one, with a huge advance, 2.7 points, in just one month.

The strength of Feijóo's PP also manages to contain the sustained growth of Vox, which lost almost one point compared to the previous poll.

The demographic research data reveals a noticeable change of mood in the electorate of the popular.

In March, in the worst of the internal crisis that would crush the leadership of Pablo Casado, the PP retained 66% of its voters.

With Feijóo, loyalty rises to 74%.

The improvement of the PP is very appreciable in the more temperate sectors of the electorate, those who place themselves in the center, the center-right and even slightly in the center-left.

In March, the PSOE was the first force among the voters who consider themselves to be central.

Two months later, the PP surpasses the Socialists in that segment of the electorate.

04:21

Which politician would respondents invite to their birthday?

The popular ones manage to penetrate better in moderate sectors without suffering losses on the other flank.

On the contrary, they also recover some ground against Vox in the most clearly right-wing positions.

The last month, with the implementation by the Government of the measures to mitigate the crisis derived from the war in Ukraine, has not been particularly bad for the PSOE.

The Socialists recover seven tenths since the April barometer, carried out in full effervescence of the protests of carriers and groups in the rural world.

But a slightly broader perspective shows that in recent weeks disaffection has been sown in part of the socialist electorate.

Since March, the percentage of PSOE voters willing to reaffirm their trust in Sánchez has fallen more than five points, from 72.7% to 67.4%.

The party to which the Socialists would suffer the most flight would be the PP, which would take 6% of their electorate, twice as much as in March.

Downhill from UP

The main gap that 40dB.

warns in the electoral expectations of the Government is located in the minority partner.

The last month has been disastrous for United We Can, which leaves two points in vote estimation.

If elections were held today, the party would barely exceed 10% of the vote, three points less than in 2019, and would lose 10 of the 35 seats it won then.

More Country does not manage to collect that discontent and even yields one of the five deputies who gave him the April survey.

In the last two months, the mobilization of the electorate of United We Can has fallen by four points.

And the percentage of those who are willing to revalidate their support has been reduced by six, going from 69% to 63%.

These figures show without a shadow of a doubt the difference in the moods of the electorates of both ideological blocs.

The degree of voter loyalty to UP is 10 points below that enjoyed by the PP and an abyss of almost 20 points below that of Vox.

The Socialists appear only slightly better in this regard, just four points above their government partner.

And they are the party, after Ciudadanos, that have the most regular followers considering abstention (13%).

The PSOE compensates for this by taking over 10% of those who in 2019 had opted for the formation then commanded by Pablo Iglesias.

The

dilutes for now the illusions of

that the PP crisis had fueled in Vox.

If in March, while the popular ones were fierce on the battlefield, Vox came to be only 2.5 points apart from the great party on the right, now the advantage of this one increases again until reaching eight points.

Although the extreme right loses everything it has gained in this period, its electoral prospects continue to rise.

If elections are held now, Santiago Abascal would receive 18% of the votes, four points more than in 2019, and would climb from 52 to 66 seats.

And above all, he would be in a position to demand his entry into the future government.

DATA SHEET

Scope:

Spain.

general population resident in Spain (except Ceuta and Melilla) over 18 years of age and with the right to vote.

2,000 interviews.

Online interview (CAWI).

±2.2% (95% confidence).

from April 20 to 25, 2022