Zoff about being close to Putin: Estonia is facing new elections – what role does Russia play in this?

Created: 06/09/2022, 17:38

By: Aleksandra Fedorska

Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas needs new coalition partners © IMAGO/Paulius Peleckis

Estonia's coalition has broken up.

Prime Minister Katja Kallas has ended cooperation with the Center Party - because of the proximity to Russia.

Tallinn – The Estonian government led by Prime Minister Kaja Kallas has collapsed.

The coalition between the liberal Reform Party, led by Kallas, and the Center Party was only sworn in at the end of January 2021.

It emerged after the previous governing coalition led by the left-wing Center Party broke up.

At that time, the Center Party formed a coalition with the Conservatives and the right-wing EKRE.

Now the new alliance in Estonia has also fallen apart: Prime Minister Kallas dismissed all seven ministers of the Center Party at the beginning of June.

"More than ever, Estonia needs a functioning government based on common values," Kallas said after her decision, which she justified with security concerns.

"The security situation in Europe does not give me, as Prime Minister, an opportunity to continue working with the Center Party."

Estonia in the government crisis: Even before the Ukraine-Russia war, the coalition was crunching

The Center Party has long been considered the political party favored by Russian-speaking Estonians.

This included cooperation with President Vladimir Putin's United Russia party.

After Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February, the center broke off this long-standing collaboration.

Although Kallas insinuates in her official statements that the Center Party is unreliable in terms of security policy and pro-Russian, the break in the coalition is more about domestic political issues.

The coalition between the Center Party and the Reform Party, with its prominent prime minister who is particularly successful in foreign policy, has had problems for several months.

Prime Minister Kaja Kallas and Jüri Ratas from the Center Party signing the coalition agreement in January © Madis Veltman via www.imago-images.de

The rock bottom was reached when the Center Party opposed the government and along with the right-wing party EKRE on education laws and family laws.

The Center Party has agreed with the opposition to pass a law introducing family and child benefits.

This new benefit would mean an additional burden on the Estonian budget of EUR 300 million per year.

Finally, on June 1, the Center Party, together with the new right-wing party EKRE, voted against an education law that the government had introduced.

This vote brought about the final break in the coalition government.

Ukraine-Russia War: Reform Party moves up in polls - Center Party plummets

The Reform Party's position is relatively strong, although it could not govern independently.

The polls are good because of the PM's strong foreign policy and extensive aid to Ukraine.

Since the outbreak of the Ukraine war, the Reform Party has climbed from around 23 percent to 34 percent.

The Center Party's popularity, on the other hand, fell from 20 percent to 17 percent.

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From this position, the reform party has good prospects of finding new coalition partners with whom cooperation will be better.

New elections, on the other hand, would entail a high risk for most of those involved, apart from the reform party.

Kallas has already announced that he wants to start talks with the conservative Isamaa and the Social Democrats.

Government crisis: How could things continue in Estonia?

Desired coalition with potential for conflict

However, Aleksandra Kuczyńska-Zonik, an Estonia expert at the Institute of Central Europe (IES) and a lecturer at the Catholic University of Lublin John Paul II, believes that the governing coalition that Kallas is aiming for contains a great deal of potential for conflict.

"The Reform Party could definitely come to an understanding with the Social Democratic Party and Isamaa, although there are major programmatic differences between these parties," said Kuczyńska-ZonikHelme

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On the other hand, Isamaa's poll numbers are poor, so public presence will be particularly important to her," says Kuczyńska-Zonik.

A return of the coalition that preceded the Kallas government cannot be completely ruled out.

The Center Party may try again to form a government with EKRE and Isamaa.

But Kuczyńska-Zonik considers this constellation extremely difficult.

However, the EKRE declared itself ready for talks in advance.

"I'm open to different possibilities," said right-wing leader Martin Helme.

"In my opinion, it is quite possible that a minority government will come into power or that new elections will be called," said Helme.

However, the EKRE is a completely unreliable partner, as the Center Party noticed before 2021.

It would be an outright surprise if the Center Party got involved again with the right.

A minority government of the reform party would not have much prospect with its 34 seats out of a total of 101 seats in the Riigikog.

The opposition could then try to isolate the reform party.

That could mean their high poll numbers melt away by the 2023 general election.

This is a scenario that can hardly be contemplated by the reform party.