Experts agree on corona scenario - immunologist warns of BA.5 and urges measures

Created: 06/10/2022, 04:50

By: Bettina Menzel

Carsten Watzl, Secretary General of the German Society for Immunology (DGfI), is standing in a laboratory.

The expert assumes that the Corona variant BA.5 will also prevail in this country (archive image).

© picture alliance/dpa/Leibniz Institute for Labor Research at the TU Dortmund (IfADo) |

According to experts, the Corona variant BA.5 will prevail in Germany.

Targeted measures are therefore necessary to counter the next corona wave in autumn.

Dortmund – In Portugal, BA.5 is already the predominant variant of the corona virus.

It was first detected in the small country on the Iberian Peninsula at the end of March, and as of June 2022 it is responsible for around 87 percent of all new infections registered.

This emerges from data from the Portuguese health authority.

Experts expect a similar development in Germany - and are already naming targeted corona measures for the fall.

Corona virus: One in 20 cases goes back to the BA.5 variant - and the trend is rising

The corona numbers in Germany are currently (as of June 8th) relatively constant.

There could be a significant increase in new infections due to the BA.5 variant of the corona virus.

This is considered more contagious and could possibly escape the immune response, say experts.

“We know that omicron is very contagious.

The BA.2 variant is currently predominant here and BA.5 is a bit more contagious and that is why BA.5 can also prevail here," explained the immunologist and professor at the University of Dortmund, Carsten Watzl, in an interview with

.

According to Watzl, the number of new infections could already be relatively high in the summer.

Around 5.2 percent of the cases that tested positive in Germany can be traced back to the BA.5 variant - i.e. one in twenty cases.

For comparison: The BA.2 variant has a share of around 93 percent, according to RKI data from the end of May.

However, the numbers climbed quickly: in the week beginning May 2, the share of the BA.5 variant was still 1.2 percent, a week later it was already 2.5 percent.

There are regional differences.

According to the Becker test laboratory, the proportion of BA.5 in southern Germany is already 15.3 percent.

Coronavirus-BA.5: This is what Lauterbach, Ciesek and Co. say about the BA.5 development in Germany

The European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) recently warned that omicron subvariants BA.4 and BA.5 could lead to a resurgence in case numbers.

In Portugal, this forecast has already come true - even though the country has one of the highest vaccination rates in the world.

Experts also agree on Omikron's developments in Germany.

The virologist Sandra Ciesek announced via the short message service Twitter that she assumed that BA.5 or BA.4 would prevail in Germany.

"Especially if the previous infection or vaccination was a long time ago, you can become infected again with BA.4 and BA.5," according to the expert.

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Federal Minister of Health and epidemiologist Karl Lauterbach (SPD) also sees these two variants “on the rise” in Germany.

In addition, unfortunately, Portugal has shown that the mortality rate increases again with the BA.5 omicron variant, Lauterbach continues.

"We have to be prepared for this in the fall," concludes the SPD politician.

, the chairman of the World Medical Association, Frank Ulrich Montgomery,

also expects the BA.5 omicron variant to become established in Germany.

Coronavirus variant BA.5: Experts propose these measures

Meanwhile, immunologist Carsten Watzl recommended starting preparations for the fall corona wave now (June 2022).

In his opinion, vaccination is still the most effective protection against a severe course.

“Anyone who has received a triple vaccination and is otherwise healthy no longer has to be very afraid of this virus,” the expert explained to

.

But you should still have respect, advised Watzl.

It is unclear whether a fourth vaccination for people at increased risk makes sense now - or better only in the fall with an adapted vaccine.

According to the immunologist, data on this would be available in the coming weeks.

Watzl also pushed for a mask requirement - for example in pharmacies, when shopping or in care facilities.

It is particularly about those places where people at increased risk need special protection.

In addition, new drugs could be used to treat the corona virus.

“We have already learned a lot and we will also get new medicines.

And I think that can still be improved,” says the expert.

The virologist Dr.

Martin Stürmer is a specialist in microbiology and a lecturer at the Institute for Medical Virology at the University of Frankfurt/Main (archive image, 2020).

© IMAGO / teutopress

Corona mask requirement in autumn?

- "Simple, proven means"

The virologist Martin Stürmer also considers a mask requirement to be “a very simple, proven means of reducing the risk of transmission – in addition to vaccinations,” the expert told the

.

Due to the long-Covid risk, the infection process “should not simply be allowed to run its course,” Stürmer continued.

Expert Sandra Ciesek recommends representative testing of the population and genomic surveillance.

She also advises older people over 80 to get a second booster vaccination.

Depending on the development, however, it may be necessary to extend the recommendations to other groups.

“Unfortunately, you also realize that we will probably be lagging behind again with a BA.1 adapted vaccine.

We have to get better and faster here,” demanded the expert.

Ciesek also noted that she has as much respect for the influenza as she does for the BA.4/BA.5 variant.

Because parts of the population could “have lost their partial immunity to influenza because this virus has hardly circulated at all for two years,” explains the virologist.

More information could be available shortly as to which corona measures are planned for autumn and winter in Germany.

Because on Wednesday, the Federal Government's Expert Council will announce its recommendations for preparations for autumn and winter.

In their decisions, the federal and state governments repeatedly refer to the advice of this specialist body.