Drought and war in Ukraine fuel forced marriages in the Horn of Africa

When Russian troops crossed the Ukrainian border on February 24, the first piece of a domino effect fell that has reached every corner of the world.

The value of energy and fuel have been the most talked about effects, but in the Horn of Africa, the earthquake of Putin's war has added to a severe drought to shake the lives and futures of a generation of girls.

Faced with food shortages, hunger and uncertainty, exacerbated by the skyrocketing prices of food imported from lands that until recently were the "granary of Europe", in many cases they are the ones who pay the ultimate price.

As a result of the deepening of the crisis, according to data from several international NGOs present in the region, in recent months in Ethiopia and Somalia there has been a dramatic increase in gender-based violence, and especially in forced marriages and school dropouts.

The relationship between the two situations may not be obvious, but it is clearly seen on the ground, especially in rural areas, where the practice is still culturally ingrained, explains Nakhungu Magero, Save the Children's regional gender adviser.

“This issue is becoming more prevalent, especially as a mechanism to deal with economic difficulties.

In the communities, girls up to 10 years old get married because that way they receive a dowry;

so it is seen as a benefit for the family, ”she says by video call.

Due to the differences that exist between regions and urban and rural areas, the general figures, in addition to being very difficult to compile, are not representative of the problem.

So, the best clue there is to measure this phenomenon is more focused data.

For example, according to data provided by Unicef, in East Hararghe, a central area of ​​Ethiopia with around 2.7 million inhabitants, there has been a 51% increase in forced marriages.

In six other districts affected by the drought they have almost multiplied by four: between February and August of last year, 672 cases were registered, while between September and March of this year there were 2,282.

ActionAid, for its part, has received reports from the Government of Somalia indicating that in the semi-autonomous region of Somaliland gender-based violence, more broadly,

One of the many animals dying of thirst in the Ceel-Dheere community in Somalia.Mahelder Haileselassie/ActionAid

This trend occurs despite the fact that, for years, Save the Children and other organizations have been working to change sensitivities and end these practices in the region.

The advances achieved in this area are very weak at such critical times, admits Magero;

especially considering that as late as 2016, 40% of Ethiopian girls were married before the age of 18 and 14% before the age of 15. “In addition to the economic motivation, which is stronger than ever, there is also recourse to to marriage as a way to protect the girl from unwanted pregnancies –or from the resulting family shame– as a result of rape or forced recruitment by armed groups, which are also on the rise”, details the advisor.

It is a question of vulnerability.

While parents are forced to travel greater distances to obtain food and water due to the drought, families have chosen to stop sending their sons and daughters to school to help with household chores or help in the search for food and sustenance.

Unicef ​​estimates that at least 600,000 minors in Ethiopia alone have stopped studying as a result of the current crisis.

Without the protection afforded by access to education, girls are at greater risk of violence and sexual exploitation, explains Plan International, an NGO that watches over the rights of minors.

Unicef ​​estimates that at least 600,000 minors in Ethiopia alone have stopped studying as a result of the current crisis

In Somalia, Plan workers have spoken to girls, some as young as 11 or 12, who have told them they are being exploited by men for food, water or money.

They know perfectly well the possible future that awaits them, and they live in fear.

"Every time I see a man talking to my mother, I terrify myself thinking that I am the deal," says the anonymous voice of a 13-year-old girl included in a recent statement from the NGO.

In the chain of events that culminates in this fear, or in its consummation, the previous station is hunger, which has multiple causes that have been piling up over the years.

First, one of the worst droughts in decades that is entering its fourth year and that has decimated agricultural production, as well as the livelihood of most of the rural population.

In the second instance, the remains of past crises: an invasion of locusts two years ago and the latest reverberations of the covid-19 pandemic.

Third, the local armed conflicts that continue: such as the civil war in the Tigray region of Ethiopia, or in Somalia, against the Islamist insurgent group Al-Shabab.

Finally, as if there weren't enough adversities, the war in Ukraine has sent fuel and food prices skyrocketing.

The region's trade dependency on Russia and the Ukraine explains the huge impact that the rise in prices caused by the war is having.

Ethiopia and Somalia import 67 and 92% of their respective wheat from both countries, according to data quoted in an Al Jazeera column written by Mohamed M. Fall, UNICEF's regional director for Eastern and Southern Africa.

When you take into account that wheat accounts for a third of cereal consumption for the population of the region, the blow that its high value means is dimensioned.

Likewise, the region depends on Russia and Ukraine for the supply of sunflower oil and fertilizers, the latter essential to save the few crops that sprout during the drought.

Two women are on their way to collect water in the Ceel-Dheere community in Somalia.Mahelder Haileselassie/ActionAid

In this context, other effects are displacement and malnutrition.

It is difficult to make an aggregate of the people who have been forced to leave their homes, as the data focuses only on certain regions and there may be more than one reason behind their movement.

However, according to various sources, millions of people are now completely dependent on humanitarian aid in makeshift displacement camps.

Furthermore, food shortages mean that, according to Unicef, 1.7 million children currently require urgent attention for malnutrition, and that number is increasing with each passing day.

In five months there has been an increase of more than 15%, and in Somalia alone 286,000 children desperately need treatment, exceeding by 40,000 those who required care in the 2011 famine.

For Save the Children's Magero, this means there is no time for regrets.

He explains how he is working directly with the most needy people in different areas, from food to continuous awareness against structural gender violence, such as the practice of forced marriage.

In such a broad crisis, all fronts are priorities.

That said, it all boils down to one thing: funding.

“Between various organizations we have appealed for 4.4 billion dollars [4.1 billion euros] for Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia, as part of the response to the drought.

But so far what has been formally financed is only 2%, around 93 million”, he says, now, with some discouragement in his voice.

The deputy regional director of UNICEF for Eastern and Southern Africa, Rania Dagash, spoke in the same tone a few days ago in Geneva.

“If the world doesn't look beyond the war in Ukraine and act immediately, an explosion of child deaths is about to occur in the Horn of Africa… I just got back from Somalia.

At a health center in the border town of Dollow I met Ismayel and her one-year-old twins, Salman and Libaan.

She is pregnant, but the devastating effects of the drought forced her to walk 120 kilometers to receive treatment for her children's malnutrition.

Many children will not make it that far.

She heard of children buried along the road as her families make long, desperate treks to seek help.

And we fear that the worst is just around the corner,” she recounted,

For those on the ground in the Horn of Africa, it is clear that all the spotlights are on the crisis in Ukraine, but they also hope that the situation of children in this other part of the world, who are paying With your childhood a war being fought more than 5,000 kilometers away, make it clear that all victims, direct or indirect, deserve the same attention.

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