Ukraine escalation?
Nuclear weapon states are arming themselves for the first time since the Cold War
Created: 06/14/2022, 12:25 p.m
By: Christoph Gschossmann
A mushroom cloud rises above the test site in the Nevada desert after a nuclear bomb exploded.
The picture was taken in 1999. (symbol photo) © picture alliance / dpa
Russia has already threatened to use its nuclear weapons in the Ukraine war.
The scenario of a nuclear war is as real as it has been in decades.
Munich - Russia attacks Ukraine - and rattles with the atomic saber.
The high point of the Kremlin's nuclear threats to date was that Vladimir Putin had his nuclear forces on standby at the start of the escalating Ukraine conflict.
It is difficult to assess the real danger of nuclear war.
According to peace researchers, however, one thing seems clear: the sheer number of nuclear weapons will increase again for the first time since the Cold War.
Which is not only due to the Russian missiles.
Nuclear weapons: States are arming themselves - US plus of 12.7 percent
The peace research institute Sipri from Stockholm assumes that the currently estimated number of 12,705 worldwide nuclear weapons will increase over the next decade.
For decades, that number had fallen—to a fifth of what it was in the 1980s.
Now the trend is reversing.
"There are clear signs that the declines that have characterized global nuclear arsenals since the end of the Cold War have ended," said Sipri expert Hans M. Kristensen.
His colleague Matt Kora called for immediate and concrete disarmament steps by the nine nuclear weapon states.
A report by the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN) seems to bring clarity.
According to the report, the nuclear powers are spending more and more money on their nuclear arsenals.
Spending in 2021 increased by almost nine percent compared to the previous year to a total of $82.4 billion (€79 billion).
The USA alone spent 44.2 billion dollars on its nuclear weapons program last year - an increase of 12.7 percent.
China invested $11.7 billion, 10.4 percent more than in 2020. Spending by Russia ($8.6 billion), France ($5.9 billion) and the UK ($6.8 billion) also rose slightly .
Pakistan's investments rose from $1 billion to $1.1 billion.
India, on the other hand, reduced its spending from $2.5 billion to $2.3 billion.
In Israel, which has never officially declared it possessed nuclear weapons, spending remained steady at $1.2 billion, according to the report.
At $642 million, North Korea put slightly less money into its nuclear weapons program than in the previous year ($700 million).
According to Sipri's annual report, Russia (5,977) and the United States (5,428) currently have more than 90 percent of all nuclear warheads.
Less than last time - mainly because old weapons were discarded.
However, the two major nuclear powers would maintain costly programs to replace and modernize nuclear warheads, delivery systems and production facilities.
This also applies to the other nuclear weapon states: China, France, India, Pakistan, Israel and North Korea.
None of these countries intend to abolish their nuclear weapons programs.
China, for example, is extensively expanding its arsenal.
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The rhetoric of some nuclear states was quite different at the beginning of the year.
A joint statement by the five UN veto powers USA, Russia, Great Britain, France and China said: "We emphasize that a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be waged." According to Sipri, however, all five are expanding their arsenals or modernize them.
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"Although there have been some significant advances in both nuclear arms control and nuclear disarmament over the past year, the risk of using nuclear weapons now appears higher than at any point since the height of the Cold War," said Sipri director Dan Smith .
Kristensen spoke of a "precarious situation" - because of the conflict between India and Pakistan, India and China, the threat from North Korea - and Russia's possible confrontation with NATO because of the Ukraine war.
According to Kristensen, states without nuclear weapons must put more pressure on those with nuclear weapons – so that the world is spared a nuclear war in the future.
(cg)
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