By Sahil Kapur -
NBC News
WASHINGTON — A decade ago, when 20 children and six adults were killed at a Connecticut elementary school, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell extended his thoughts and prayers, lamenting a tragedy that he said was “notable for its horror,” and then used filibustering to block a bipartisan bill to toughen gun laws.
But last month, after a gunman in Uvalde, Texas, killed 19 elementary school children and two teachers, McConnell did something different: He said Congress must act, giving Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas , his blessing in reaching a deal with Democrats on modestly stricter gun laws, which he endorsed on Tuesday.
[Declare “unconstitutional” to prohibit the sale of semi-automatic weapons to those under 21 years of age in California]
McConnell's change reflects a new political paradigm as mass shootings become more frequent in the United States.
Permissive gun laws have allowed easy access to AR-15-type rifles, even for dangerous people intent on committing murder.
The Kentucky Republican also has a political incentive: to win back voters in the suburbs, who support gun control but have drifted away from the GOP coalition and leaned toward the Democrats in the last election.
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For McConnell - a longtime opponent of gun control who has called himself the "grim reaper" of progressive priorities - the opening to a gun bill also reflects his desire to show that the Senate can work with the filibustering rule. of 60 votes intact.
A GOP leadership adviser familiar with his thinking explained that it would show that the Senate is "not broken" and that "those who want to change the rules are wrong."
[Deaths of minors in the US with firearms increased by 29% in 2020]
The final bill has yet to be drafted, but many senators from both parties are optimistic that the framework agreement alone marks a sea change after nearly three decades of failure to combat gun violence.
“There is no question that the school shootings have represented a change in the atmosphere,” Mitt Romney, a senator from Utah and a former Republican presidential candidate in 2012, said in an interview with our sister network NBC News. many of us: Are there some things we can do that don't infringe on the rights of gun owners - but at the same time make it harder for disturbed young people to commit acts of such horror?"
McConnell is keeping an eye on political trends as he seeks to win control of the Senate for Republicans in the midterm elections this fall.
A day after the 2020 election, he said he is "disturbed by the loss of support in the suburbs" for GOP candidates.
“If you look at our situation, the Republican situation nationally, I think we need to take back the suburbs.
We have to do better with college-educated voters than we've been doing lately, and we have to do better with women."
A Springfield Armory Hellpup rifle during the National Rifle Association (NRA) Annual Meeting at the George R. Brown Convention Center in Houston, Texas on May 28, 2022. Patrick T. Fallon/AFP via Getty Images
In a CBS News poll this month, 69% of American women said gun laws should be stricter (6% said they were less strict);
and 65% of white college graduates said they should be more stringent (10% said they were less stringent).
[More and more Latinos buy guns after the increase in homicides and hate crimes]
And the
status quo
doesn't appeal to them: Only a quarter of women and white college graduates said gun laws should stay the same.
“McConnell can read the polls as well as anyone.
There is broad public support to do something given the magnitude of the tragedy in Uvalde,” said Dan Eberhart, a Republican donor and oil and gas executive.
“Republicans are being painted as extremists on all issues because of the Make America Great Again (MAGA) issue.
Guns are an issue where they can disprove that narrative and support a reasonable approach,” he opined.
“They can't move forward on abortion.
But they have more room to negotiate on weapons,” he added.
The support is "overwhelming"
At a closed-door meeting of the Senate GOP on Tuesday, Cornyn presented Republicans with a survey of 1,000 people in households with guns that found 79% support "red flag" laws, 86% support closing the boyfriend loophole and 87% support including juvenile records in the background check system, according to slides shared with NBC News by a source familiar with the meeting.
Moments later, McConnell came to the fore, telling reporters that "support for the framework provisions is out of the ordinary, it's overwhelming."
[Biden claimed that more children are killed by guns than by car accidents. This is what the data says]
Liam Donovan, a lobbyist and former Republican campaign operative, attributed the intrapartisan shift to the rising prevalence of mass shootings and a "gop coalition realignment."
"Romney's suburban voters, who used to be part of the base, are now on the line, if they don't start leaning Democratic, and this is the kind of issue that could make a big difference at the margin, both in midterms and in the future,” Donovan said.
Democrats say the mood of public opinion has changed dramatically.
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"Americans are really scared," said Sen. Richard Blumenthal, a Democrat from Connecticut.
"There's a totally different mood now," he added.
Sen. Gary Peters, D-Michigan, chairman of the Democrats' election arm, said there is "overwhelming support in the country for gun safety laws and for dealing with guns."
He noted that “there is no doubt in my mind” that the suburbs are pushing it, adding that expanding background checks has about 80% public support.
[Firearms become the leading cause of death for children and adolescents in the US for the first time.]
“There are very few issues that get that kind of support right now after dealing with gun safety,” Peters said in an interview.
The integrity of the Second Amendment
However, it is not clear whether the Republicans will get the 20 or 25 votes they want.
Many senators are carefully watching reactions from conservative activists (including the National Rifle Association) and commentators to see if they face backlash for backing a bill.
The same electoral readjustment that has made some Republicans more willing to toy with gun legislation has left others in the party more reliant on pro-gun voters.
[US Senators Announce Bipartisan Agreement on Proposed Gun Control Laws]
In particular, McConnell's top aides - Sen. John Thune, R-D.C., and Sen. John Barrasso, R-Wyoming, who represent small rural states with gun cultures - have not taken a position on the framework. .
Some Republicans say the party needs to make concessions to keep guns away from dangerous people, or risk delegitimizing the Second Amendment altogether.
“Even if you're a huge supporter of the Second Amendment, which I am, there are some things you're going to have to do if you want to keep it intact for the long haul,” he opined.
Sen. Mike Braun, R-Indiana, said, "Guns in the hands of the mentally ill... Every time that happens, it damages the integrity of the Second Amendment."
Two senior Senate Republican aides said the rise in the prevalence of mass shootings has softened the caucus's resistance to action.
Cornyn said Democratic negotiators were willing to narrow negotiations down to areas Republicans could agree on.
She said Murphy and Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, D-Arizona, "were very reasonable."
“And when we told them that if you add that, we can't get 60 votes, they were very pragmatic and practical,” he clarified.