Germany fears that the cut of Russian gas for maintenance of Nord Stream 1 will become definitive

Pipes that are part of the Nord Stream gas pipeline at the arrival facility, in the German town of Lubmin. HANNIBAL HANSCHKE (REUTERS)

Since six in the morning on Monday, the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline has not sent a single cubic meter of Russian gas to Germany.

This is a planned closure, which is done every year to ensure the proper maintenance of the facility, but this 2022, with the war of aggression in Ukraine about to enter its fifth month and in the midst of an energy crisis unprecedented, takes on a new dimension.

Berlin fears that the cutoff, which lasts for 10 days, until the 21st, will change from provisional to indefinite if Vladimir Putin decides to use the total lack of gas as a measure of pressure on the West.

Moscow has also further reduced supplies of the hydrocarbon to Italy and Austria.

Economy and Climate Minister Robert Habeck is the first to suspect that maintenance tasks could become the next excuse the Kremlin uses to breach supply contracts and stop supplying the gas on which German industry depends so much.

Several economists predict, with different figures, that the first economy of the European Union would enter a recession if the gas tap were completely closed this July.

The concern about the consequences for the economy and for consumers extends these days, and will only increase until Thursday of next week.

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The Government of the Social Democrat Olaf Scholz is not considering at the moment increasing the alert level of its energy emergency plan, assured a spokeswoman for the Executive this Monday.

"We can not speculate on what will happen after the 21st ″, she added, to questions from journalists.

Berlin is preparing for the worst, but hopes that the best will still happen, that is, that the flow of the gas pipeline will be restored to at least the volume before the cut.

The Nord Stream 1, a gas pipeline that runs more than 1,200 kilometers along the bed of the Baltic Sea and transports gas directly from Russia to the German coast, is currently the main source of Russian gas supply to the country after Moscow cut off service the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline and reduce shipments through Ukraine.

The energy push and pull that Moscow and Berlin have maintained since even before the invasion began worsened in mid-June, when the Russian state gas company Gazprom announced that it was going to reduce gas deliveries through Nord Stream 1 by two thirds. The company alleged technical problems, specifically the lack of a turbine from the German company Siemens, which was being held in Canada due to sanctions after being sent there for repairs.

Berlin was quick to talk of blackmail, and Minister Habeck said publicly that he did not believe Gazprom's excuse.

Almost a month later, during which barely 40% of the gas that Russia should be supplying by contract has been arriving, the technical shutdown of the gas pipeline adds tremendous pressure to the Executive.

The cut coincides with the period for filling the tanks, which is traditionally done in the summer, taking advantage of the fact that the heating is not used and that the price is normally lower.

This Monday the German storage facilities are at 64.6% of their capacity.

"It is difficult to say [if the gas supply by Nord Stream 1] will return after maintenance," Habeck said in Prague on Monday.

“Winter is going to be critical and we have to prepare as best we can”, he added.

Germany has been trying for months to limit its huge dependence on Russian gas – which was 55% before the invasion and fell to 35% in mid-April – but it is not finding it easy to find new suppliers or reduce the amount of gas it needs. the industrial sector to function normally.

back to coal

Germany has been preparing for weeks for possible gas rationing in the winter and has already been forced to make painful decisions for a coalition that includes the Greens, such as a return to coal burning.

A legislative amendment approved last week already allows the reactivation of old coal plants, the most polluting fuel and which the coalition had promised to abandon before 2030. The risk of lack of supply has also forced the urgent approval of other laws that allow taking the control of critical companies for energy supply in case of need.

The Russian giant Gazprom has also reduced gas shipments to Italy and Austria.

In the case of Italy, the supply has fallen by a third, the Italian hydrocarbons company Eni, controlled 30% by the State, said in a statement on Monday.

The Austrian energy group OMV is barely receiving 30% of the gas it has contracted with Gazprom, its spokesman told the local APA agency.

Supply is assured in both cases.

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