Brussels fears that Italy will become the EU's Achilles heel against Russia

The fall of a government in Italy is such a common phenomenon (they last an average of 13 months since World War II) that in Brussels it usually goes unnoticed.

But the ouster of Prime Minister Mario Draghi, launched by his own coalition allies, comes at a time of enormous geostrategic tension with Russia.

And in the community capital it is feared that Italy, the third largest economy in the euro zone, will become a vulnerable point in the strategy against Moscow or, in the worst case, a Trojan horse at the service of the Russian president, Vladimir Putin.

The participation in the demolition of Draghi of the popular group, the same one to which the president of the European Commission and the president of the European Parliament belong, has also caused stupor in the socialist ranks of the European Parliament.

"It is a disaster for Italy, but also for Europe and all this with the complicity of the European People's Party [EPP]", accuses the MEP Iratxe García, leader of the socialist parliamentary group in the European Parliament.

García blames the European popular group, led by the German MEP Manfred Weber, for having encouraged the maneuvers of his co-religionist Silvio Berlusconi to seize the Government from Draghi.

Finally, the support of Berlusconi's party, Forza Italia, has been key so that the offensive orchestrated by Matteo Salvini's League and by the 5-Star Movement

has managed to put an end to the Draghi period.

“Are you going to applaud the position your party has taken in Italy today as well?” asks the Socialist MEP about Weber's favorable attitude towards Berlusconi.

The European Commission, chaired by the popular German Ursula von der Leyen, on Wednesday stayed out of the political crisis in Rome.

"The Commission never comments on political events in the Member States," said the body's official spokesman.

"President von der Leyen has repeatedly emphasized close and constructive cooperation with Prime Minister Mario Draghi and she wishes to continue that cooperation with the Italian authorities on all EU policies and priorities," added the same source.

Brussels has had in Draghi - who has announced in Parliament that he is about to resign this Thursday - a faithful guardian of political and economic orthodoxy.

And the former president of the European Central Bank has enjoyed the trust of Berlin and Paris, which have always seen him as a benchmark, especially on economic issues.

His presence at the head of the Italian Government also offered a certain guarantee on the execution of the recovery plan and the profound reforms required in exchange for 191.4 billion euros in subsidies and loans.

Rome had already achieved, under Draghi's mandate, the delivery of a first tranche of 21,000 million.

And last month, he requested the second payment, for another 21,000 million.

But the foreseeable fall of the Government may leave compliance with the conditions included in the recovery plan up in the air.

The pending task is enormous because Italy has so far only completed 10% of the milestones and objectives agreed with Brussels, compared to 13% in Spain (which has already obtained the green light for the second payment) or 22% in France ( which goes for the first payment).

To the concern about the economic stability of Italy, which will predictably weigh heavily on the decisions of the European Central Bank this Thursday, is added the growing concern in Brussels about the close ties of a good part of the Italian political class with the Kremlin.

The two parties most implicated in bringing about Draghi's downfall, Matteo Salvini's League and the 5-Star Movement, have traditionally been very sympathetic to Vladimir Putin's policies.

Salvini came to prepare a trip to Moscow in the middle of the war, which could not be carried out.

And the one who was leader of the Movement and until recently Foreign Minister, Luigi Di Maio, left the formation in June due to the refusal of the

to send weapons to Ukraine to defend itself from the Russian invasion.

European diplomatic sources have been pointing out for weeks that Italy is also becoming the port of entry for allegedly academic and neutral theories that question the EU's position in the war in Ukraine.

The argument repeatedly spread in certain Italian media encourages the theory that European sanctions against the Kremlin are a self-inflicted damage to the European economy that do not make a dent in the Russian firepower.

Moscow energy agency

Italy is seen in Brussels as the most fragile Achilles' heel for the EU's unity in the resistance against Putin.

The transalpine country, without nuclear power plants or coal, has a foreign energy dependence of more than 70% and Russian hydrocarbons cover more than a fifth of its total energy consumption.

Italy imports almost 93% of the natural gas consumed (a percentage higher than that of Germany) and this fuel accounts for 45% of the country's energy consumption.

Brussels fears that public opinion in countries such as Italy or Hungary will turn against sanctions on Russia if the war in Ukraine drags on and Moscow cuts gas supplies in retaliation for European sanctions.

For now, the European Commission has proposed a voluntary cut of 15% of gas consumption in all EU countries.

But Brussels does not rule out imposing that cut if the voluntary savings do not give the expected result.

A recent survey by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) think tank already showed in June that Italy is the EU country with the least support for Ukraine.

Only 56% of Italians, according to the survey, consider Russia guilty of the war compared to 80% of the European average;

and only 39% believe that Moscow is the main obstacle to peace, while in Europe 64% think so.

In Italy, 28% blame the conflict on the United States, a figure that remains at 9% in the other countries in the survey.

Despite his public opinion, Draghi had put himself at the forefront of the initiatives to stand up to the Kremlin and was the first leader of a large country, ahead of Germany, France or Spain, who unequivocally seconded the request of the Ukrainian president, Volodímir Zelenski, so that his country was recognized as a candidate for admission to the European Union.

Draghi's fall would leave Brussels without a prop and kyiv without a valuable ally.

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