Behind the scenes of the split between Smotrich and Ben Gabir is not only a struggle for places, but also a political analysis derived from the day after the elections.
The bone of contention between the parties was mainly around the first seven.
Ben Gvir was not ready to compromise on less than three distinct places of his in the top seven, while for Smotrich it was a red line that he was not ready to cross.
Why does Smotrich insist on less than three places for Ben Gabir in the first seven, while he has already offered him four places in the top ten, and the polls show that their joint run will yield 11 seats?
Ben Gvir
Netanyahu would prefer Gantz over him, photo: Gideon Markovich
We will try to explain: seven mandates - this is the safest scenario in a joint run on election day.
Usually, the key requirement for ministers is that each party gets one portfolio in the government for every three mandates.
If Ben Gvir holds three real seats in the Knesset, in a joint run they will have to give him a ministerial position according to the key.
Smotrich has no objection in principle to Ben Gvir being a minister, but he fears a scenario of a minister developing every seven mandates.
In such a situation, Smotrich fears that even if the right-wing bloc obtains 61 mandates, Gantz will tell his voters that he is joining Netanyahu, if only to prevent Ben Gabir from becoming a minister.
In such a case, Smotrich will again be thrown into the opposition.
Netanyahu has proven in the past that even in a situation of 61 mandates for the right, he prefers a government without the ideological extreme right.
Benjamin Netanyahu.
Want a union without payment, photo: Gideon Markovich
In a situation where Ben Gabir and Smotrich run together - things change.
Netanyahu, Smotrich estimates, will not have public legitimacy to leave 10 mandates outside and will therefore integrate them into his government.
Therefore, Smotrich has already agreed to give Ben Gabir four places, two of which are places 9 and 10.
Along with the risk that Smotrich and Ben-Gvir running together would allow Netanyahu to keep the duo out, Netanyahu could also win a mandate or two from them on election day if he is sure that they will pass the threshold.
In a situation where the two will run separately, Netanyahu will not be able to make the traditional feast for them for fear that one of them will not pass the percentage of obstruction.
Against the background of Netanyahu's expected feast of mandates, Smotrich wants to get armor in Likud as a dowry for unity with Ben Gabir, but it seems that this time it will be difficult for Netanyahu to pay this price.
He also has problems with the armor division, among them pressure to armor more women and also a figure from the Ethiopian community, so as not to lose the community's votes.
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