Enlarge image
Photo: DER SPIEGEL
Stephan Weil and his SPD won the state elections in Lower Saxony with a clear lead over the CDU.
But both parties are losing votes compared to 2017, the Christian Democrats to a greater extent than the Social Democrats.
The proportion of votes held by the FDP and the left is also shrinking.
On the other hand, supporters of the Greens and AfD can celebrate.
Thanks to significant gains in votes, both parties achieved a double-digit result.
Even if the Greens hoped for more, they will in all likelihood participate in government in the future: Both Weil and the Greens in Lower Saxony have spoken out in favor of a coalition.
A preliminary voter migration analysis by Infratest dimap shows how votes have shifted since the 2017 election.
The values are a rough estimate, but give a first insight into how the result came about.
Only two parties gained votes compared to 2017: The
Greens
won over almost 100,000 voters who had voted for the SPD, CDU or FDP five years ago.
The second winner - the
AfD
- was even able to snatch 120,000 votes from these three parties.
It is noteworthy that a third of these come from the FDP.
These 40,000 votes are also the largest single loss for the
Liberals
.
Overall, the FDP loses over 100,000 voters.
The CDU
had a similar experience
with top candidate Bernd Althusmann.
The Christian Democrats won some votes from the FDP, but in the end there is a clearly negative balance.
Particularly bitter: a good half of those who turned their backs on the Christian Democrats did not vote for any other party, but are now non-voters.
The poor performance of the CDU made it possible for the
SPD
to win the elections.
The Social Democrats also lost votes on a large scale – around 135,000.
At least the SPD managed to win over some former CDU and FDP voters.
Infratest dimap has not yet published any numbers on voter migration
for the
left .
SPD and CDU particularly strong among seniors
The analysis by age group shows that the SPD was particularly successful with older people.
In the age group of voters over 70, she got almost half of the votes.
The younger the voters, the weaker the Social Democrats did.
Among the youngest voters aged 18 to 24, they received only 19 percent.
A similar picture emerges when looking at the CDU, which only achieved 16 percent in the youngest group of voters.
The FDP scored particularly well with the youngest.
But the Greens are also interesting for young voters.
They were also able to collect a large number of votes from voters between the ages of 25 and 44.
The AfD supporters, on the other hand, have their own age structure.
The party is strongest in the groups between 35 and 44 years of age.
Greens particularly strong among voters with a high level of education
In the group of voters with a high level of education, the SPD is in first place - but only just ahead of the CDU and the Greens.
But social and Christian democrats are significantly stronger among people with a simple education.
It's the same with the AfD.
The result of the Greens follows a well-known pattern: 24 percent of the votes for the higher educated compared to only 5 percent for people with a simple education.
The FDP also achieves better results for people with a higher level of education than for those with a simple education.
The voting behavior of men and women differed only in nuances.
The AfD records the biggest difference.
It's much more popular with men.