The situation on the Korean peninsula has heated up in the past few days.
As of October 9, North Korea had launched 7 ballistic missiles in 15 days, the most notable of which was the launch of a medium- and long-range ballistic missile on the 4th that passed over Japan and landed in the Pacific Ocean with a range of 4,500 kilometers.
This is the first time a North Korean missile has flown over the Japanese archipelago since 2017 after a five-year interval, landing in the Pacific Ocean about 3,200 kilometers east of Japan's northeastern region.
On October 6, 12 North Korean fighter planes flew into the vicinity of the special surveillance area of the South Korean army for an air-to-ground shooting exercise. 30 South Korean military planes attacked to respond. The two sides faced off for about an hour.
North Korea's formation flight this time is really rare and is the first time in the past year.
The South Korean government urgently held a national security meeting for this purpose. US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan immediately had a telephone conversation with relevant officials in South Korea and Japan. Respond and deploy fighter jets for precision bombing exercises.
Leaders of the United States and Japan, the United States and South Korea, and Japan and South Korea have discussed the situation one after another.
Why has the situation on the Korean Peninsula suddenly reached the point of confrontation between fighter jets and mutual military demonstrations?
How will the situation escalate in the future?
North Korea launched a medium-range ballistic missile on October 4 that flew over Japan and crashed into the Pacific Ocean.
(AP)
The current situation seems to be provocation by North Korea, but in fact it is the inevitable result of the development and changes in the situation on the peninsula after the change of the US and South Korean governments.
During the Trump administration, the U.S., South Korea and North Korea basically formed a preliminary consensus on North Korea's suspension of ballistic missile launches and nuclear tests, and the U.S. and South Korea would not hold large-scale military exercises.
But after Joe Biden came to power, he overturned the Trump-era policy toward North Korea. The Biden administration's policy of "simultaneous diplomacy and severe deterrence" is still essentially the policy of extreme pressure under the Obama administration.
After the U.S. and South Korea governments changed their terms, in August this year, the U.S. and South Korea resumed the largest military exercise on the Korean peninsula, the Ulchi Freedom Shield, which had been suspended for five years.
In September of this year, the USS Reagan aircraft carrier strike group arrived in Busan again after five years for a joint exercise with the South Korean side.
The frequent rehearsals of the United States and South Korea to launch attacks on North Korea are equivalent to bringing the confrontational atmosphere on the Korean Peninsula back to the state before the Trump administration.
On the other hand, with the support of the Biden administration, the Yin Xiyue administration advocated a grand compromise with Japan, and the three-way alliance between the United States, Japan and South Korea basically tends to reunite.
This is a major peripheral situation for North Korea.
North Korea fired missiles over the Japanese archipelago and into the Pacific Ocean, demonstrating its ability to easily strike Japan and strike Guam.
At the same time, a large number of fighter jets demonstrated against South Korea, which was a warning to South Korea.
North Korea is showing an unyielding attitude to the United States, Japan and South Korea.
This kind of exchange between you and me is likely to be the mainstream of the peninsula game in the next few years.
USS Reagan: The picture shows the USS Reagan arriving at the Port of Busan, South Korea, on September 23, 2022.
(AP)
In the author's opinion, the degree of escalation of the situation on the Korean Peninsula in the future will be in the hands of the United States, Japan and South Korea, not North Korea.
In the past, North Korea frequently provoked conflicts on the peninsula to justify its nuclear tests.
The purpose of creating incidents is to blackmail the United States and South Korea, and they are playing a crisis management game of negotiating nuclear weapons at the same time.
Now, North Korea has completed its nuclear test and has nuclear capabilities, and North Korea's own military security has been guaranteed to a certain extent.
At present, the missile launches and fighter jet exercises carried out by North Korea have not affected the United States and South Korea, but at most the psychology of the United States and South Korea.
There is a certain safety bottom line.
Under the baton of concentrating its efforts on economic development, what North Korea needs is a stable development environment. What North Korea can do is to demonstrate its ability and posture in self-defense, and it does not need to provoke major conflicts.
Provoking conflict will only trigger the international community to force North Korea to abandon its nuclear weapons.
Kim Jong Un is not stupid and I believe he will make a wise choice.
Rather than worrying about whether North Korea will provoke a more serious military situation, it is better to worry about the extent to which the United States, Japan and South Korea intend to provoke the situation in their own interests.
After North Korea acquired a nuclear weapon, the military balance between North and South Korea has actually been broken.
Although the conservatives represented by Yin Xiyue ideologically advocate pro-US and show strength to North Korea, in reality, South Korea must reshape a new security front, and it is just necessary to move closer to the United States indefinitely to obtain protection.
U.S. President Joe Biden (center), South Korean President Yoon Seok-wyeh (left), and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida (right) held a summit meeting between the three countries during the NATO summit in Madrid on June 29.
The officials sitting behind Biden are White House National Security Adviser Sullivan, Secretary of State Blinken and Defense Secretary Austin.
(AP)
That's why the U.S. and South Korea have restarted extended deterrence dialogue after Biden's visit to South Korea this year.
The connotation that the United States will provide South Korea with a nuclear umbrella will be updated in the future.
And after Biden took office, when the leaders of the United States and South Korea met, the range restrictions of South Korea's missiles were lifted. In the future, South Korea's armament development, especially the development and production of missiles, will accelerate.
The tripartite front of the United States, Japan and South Korea is the security bastion that South Korea can think of.
This is an inevitable choice for the escalation of the arms race.
In order to deal with China, the Biden administration must revive the alliance system. Japan and South Korea must seize it. In particular, South Korea has an important position in the chip supply chain. Uniting South Korea must be considered by Biden.
Only by binding South Korea militarily can it be exchanged for South Korea's economic and political help.
The United States certainly understands this.
Japan's constitutional revision has proceeded to this day, and there is no turning back.
Tensions on the peninsula and North Korea's threat are excellent excuses for the Japanese authorities to demand further US military de-escalation.
Japan is also very supportive of being tough on North Korea.
Although Japan has an arrogant attitude towards South Korea, in the context of the rise of China, Japan recognizes the importance of forming a tripartite alliance between the United States, Japan and South Korea.
In order to further seize South Korea and unite Japan, it is not ruled out that the United States will create a new security crisis.
The current Ukraine war seems to be a military operation initiated by Russia, which is essentially a manifestation of the US provoking Russia-Europe relations and Russia-Ukraine relations.
Through the Ukrainian war, the united front between European countries and the United States has been further consolidated and strengthened.
Without a world war, a war in Ukraine would have been enough to unite Europe.
In the future, in the Asia-Pacific, will the United States provoke the next small-scale Korean War in order to make South Korea and Japan stand firmly in the United States?
Such a possibility cannot be ruled out.
South Korea: 12 North Korean fighter planes flew into the South Korean military special surveillance area. South Korean fighter planes took off to confront the North Korean side seriously watching the US-South Korea military exercises, referring to the two countries’ bluffing New North Korean Nuclear Agency?
North Korea launches missile | Japan and South Korea condemn the United States: are in close consultation with allies