The 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China opened in Beijing on October 16. It is not only an important party congress of the Communist Party of China at a critical historical turning point, but also a milestone event affecting Hong Kong, Taiwan and the international landscape.
Its influence is particularly important for the resolution of the Taiwan issue, which further clarifies the overall layout of Beijing for the resolution of the Taiwan issue, and also reveals the CCP's thinking, method and process for promoting reunification.
Why was the "1992 Consensus" omitted orally?
During Xi Jinping's nearly two-hour political report, "Hong Kong 01" immediately noticed that the "1992 Consensus" and other words did not appear in its Taiwan-related paragraphs.
In the full text of the full text that was distributed to reporters at the scene after the meeting, existing major policies such as the "One China Principle", "1992 Consensus" and "Peaceful Reunification, One Country, Two Systems" were not omitted.
The differences between the oral version and the full version in these details have aroused considerable discussion in Taiwan, and are also the focus of analysis by scholars and observers.
In fact, whether or not these terms appear, the entire report to the 20th National Congress shows Xi Jinping's confidence in the Chinese Communist Party's line.
As Zhang Denghe, a professor at the Department of Political Science at National Taiwan University, explained at a symposium, "He (the CCP) feels that he has caught something, and he is confident in carrying out reforms to show the Chinese model, Chinese story, and Chinese style."
It can be seen that such a vision, awareness and self-confidence are also reflected in the vision of the Xi era's view of the Taiwan issue in the next five years.
Xi Jinping's report to the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China did not verbally mention the "1992 Consensus", which sparked discussions in Taiwan.
(Associated Press)
Xi Jinping's oral report omits the "1992 Consensus" that has been regarded as a key word in cross-strait relations in the past, and illustrates that Beijing has declared that it will "firmly grasp the dominance and initiative in cross-strait relations, and unswervingly advance the great cause of national reunification." " has taken steps.
The role of the "1992 Consensus" is only to serve as a key to maintain the door of cross-strait interaction. Taiwan must accept it. Of course, it is good. The two sides can sit down and discuss based on political mutual trust. Just like Tsai Ing-wen, the ruling Democratic Progressive Party, not only turned a deaf ear to the "1992 Consensus", but also took advantage of the U.S. chariot to curb China and hollowed out the "One China", so Beijing will not stop reunifying because of this. It is to open a new game at your own pace and rhythm.
Don't just stare at the Taiwan-related paragraphs in the report
Shi Qiping, a senior commentator of Phoenix Satellite TV who has always observed the international situation and geopolitics, believes that compared with Washington and Taiwan in the situation in the Taiwan Strait, mainland China is generally quite calm and rhythmic, and everything has its own steps and The set goals, the long-term, medium-term and short-term progress has been planned, regardless of what the United States and Taiwan are like.
If you want to understand Beijing's "sense of rhythm" on the Taiwan issue in Shi Qiping's words, when reading Xi Jinping's report to the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, you can't just focus on the thirteenth section "Upholding and Improving "One Country, Two Systems" and Promoting the Reunification of the Motherland" Taiwan-related paragraphs in this section.
This is not to say that this section is not important, it is of course important, because the determination and will of the Chinese Communist Party, the "bottom-line thinking" on the Taiwan issue, and the policy actions at the tactical level are all expressed in black and white in this section.
The problem is that if Taiwan only reads this section, it is easy to fall into the dualistic thinking of "soft or hard" and "peace or war", and walk into the zero-sum of the West, where it is either one or the other, life and death. In the misunderstanding of the traditional power game, we cannot see the method and understanding of how Beijing thinks and how to advance.
The report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China pointed out that "promoting the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation in an all-round way with Chinese-style modernization" is the "central task" of the Communist Party of China from now on.
(Xinhua News Agency)
Therefore, it is even more necessary for Taiwan to put aside its prejudices and understand it more deeply. It should belong to the third section "The Mission and Task of the Communist Party of China in the New Era and New Journey", because Xi Jinping has completely and clearly explained in this section that the Communist Party of China will complete the tasks in the next five to ten years. mission and tasks.
In the blueprint plan implied by this action plan, it is naturally impossible to lack the piece of the Taiwan puzzle.
Reunification is one of the central tasks of the CCP
"The Mission and Task of the Communist Party of China in the New Era and New Journey" states: "From now on, the central task of the Communist Party of China is to unite and lead the people of all ethnic groups in the country to build a powerful modern socialist country in an all-round way, and to achieve the second centenary goal. Modernization comprehensively promotes the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation."
There are two important keywords, one is "Chinese-style modernization" and the other is "the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation", the former represents the method and path, and the latter symbolizes the established goal.
Let us first look at the established goal of "the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation".
At the 95th anniversary meeting of the founding of the Communist Party of China on July 1, 2016, Xi Jinping solemnly declared that "promoting the process of peaceful reunification of the motherland and completing the great cause of reunification of the motherland is an inevitable requirement for the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation." This statement was also written in November 2021. In January, the Sixth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China passed the "Resolution of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on the Major Achievements and Historical Experience of the Party's Hundred Years of Struggle", known as the "third historical resolution".
On July 1, 2016, at the 95th anniversary of the founding of the Communist Party of China, Xi Jinping declared that "promoting the process of peaceful reunification of the motherland and completing the great cause of reunification of the motherland are the inevitable requirements for the realization of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation."
(Xinhua News Agency)
In other words, the completion of the reunification can be called "realizing the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation". The "central task" of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China "from now on" is to "comprehensively promote the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation", then "promoting the peaceful reunification of the motherland" progress and complete the great cause of national reunification" is of course one of the "central tasks" implicit in it.
The appearance and texture of China's development includes Taiwan
Then look at the method and path of "Chinese-style modernization".
In his report, Xi Jinping described the connotation of "Chinese-style modernization" in five sentences:
1. Chinese-style modernization is a modernization with a huge population.
2. Chinese-style modernization is a modernization in which all the people are prosperous.
3. Chinese-style modernization is a modernization in which material civilization and spiritual civilization are coordinated.
4. Chinese-style modernization is a modernization in which man and nature coexist in harmony.
5. Chinese-style modernization is a modernization that takes the path of peaceful development.
It can be seen that the action plan framed by these five paths is reflected in the report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China. All-round strategic planning and implementation requirements, so as to outline the overall external appearance and internal texture of China's national development.
For the CCP to solve the Taiwan issue, it not only has historical responsibility and the inevitability of historical laws, but also incorporates it into the overall thinking and deployment of national development.
When Xi Jinping's report to the 20th National Congress said that "the complete reunification of the motherland must be realized and it will be realized", there was 24 seconds of applause at the scene.
(Associated Press)
Therefore, facing the pressure of "reunification", Taiwan may see the "coercion", "annexation", "war" and other fears of the "mighty power" against itself, and thus is trapped in a cycle of ideological resistance, unable to extricate itself.
But in fact, the Chinese Communist Party understands why the Taiwan issue must be resolved from a completely different perspective. The methodology of "Chinese-style modernization" is actually reflected in its call for Taiwan's reunification, including the "post-unification" focus on Governance blueprints to improve people's livelihood and well-being, as well as "unification" mechanisms such as sharing development opportunities, promoting exchanges and cooperation, deepening integrated development, and enhancing spiritual harmony, there are also calls for not giving up peaceful consultations until the last second.
Although Taiwan regards it as a "United Front Conspiracy", it is fundamentally different from the Western way of relying on "fight" as the only way to resolve disputes and conflicts.
The report also sees truthfully from facts that when the Communist Party of China achieves its mission and tasks, it is bound to encounter risks and challenges under the "century of change", including various "black swans" and "gray rhinos", and "prepare to stand the major test of high winds and waves and even turbulent waves." .
This also epitomizes the CCP’s thinking on the Taiwan issue, emphasizing the overall consideration of “two overall situations” at home and abroad, or, as stated in the report, “solving the Taiwan issue is a matter for the Chinese themselves, and it is up to the Chinese to decide”, etc. These are all rounds of contests in response to the challenge of the United States and Taiwan's "Taiwan card". On the one hand, "the fate of China's development and progress is firmly in our own hands." It should be understood that Xi Jinping declared that "the complete reunification of the motherland must be achieved, and it will certainly be achieved".
The 20th National Congress clarifies the "small rhythm" in 2027
Further refinement to the issue of the unified "timetable" that Taiwan society is most concerned about.
When the report of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China was released in 2017, "Hong Kong 01" made an analysis and judgment. To build a "powerful modern socialist country" in 2049, it can be understood as "national rejuvenation". If even the country is still divided, why? Talk about "revival"?
For Xi Jinping, of course, the Taiwan issue will be resolved as soon as possible. Subjectively, it will not be delayed until 2049, the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China.
The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Transport released the latest "National Highway Network Planning" in July 2022, in which the planning of the expressway starting from Beijing and connecting to Taipei via Fuzhou is planned to be completed by 2035.
(Ministry of Transport website)
In addition, the report of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China revealed that the "two fifteen years" of phased struggles actually included a set of "two-step" preparations for the settlement of the Taiwan issue, from the reconstruction of cross-strait relations to the completion of complete reunification .
The goal of "basically realizing socialist modernization" in 2035 can be linked to the "National Comprehensive Three-dimensional Transportation Network Planning Outline" issued in March 2021, which plans the transportation vision from 2021 to 2035, which proposes to accelerate the construction of six major axes. , and in the main axis of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei to Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao, including a branch line from Fuyang to Huangshan and Fuzhou to Taipei.
Just imagine, if the two sides of the strait have not completed the political reunification, how can we build this traffic route that needs to be connected from both ends?
Based on Shi Qiping's analysis, he believes that Beijing's pace of resolving the Taiwan issue can be divided into a "big rhythm" in 2049, a "medium rhythm" in 2035, and a "small rhythm" in 2024 or 2027.
Before the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the "small rhythm" was not quite clear, but the report of the 20th National Congress has given a clearer plan: under the general strategic arrangement of "two steps", it is clear that the next five years (that is, 2022 2027) is "a critical period for the beginning of the comprehensive construction of a modern socialist country", and eight major goals and tasks are set at the same time. Although the words "Taiwan" or "unification" do not appear in them, it is impossible not to consider the Taiwan issue. inside.
According to the United States' own logic, some intelligence and military high-level officials regard 2027 as the "big limit" for "army reunification"; but as far as China's own logic is concerned, 2027 does serve the "big rhythm" and "medium rhythm" The "small rhythm" foreshadowing has the inherent context and time rationality of the overall development and deployment.
In any case, the pace of Beijing's reunification is accelerating, and it is hard to imagine that after the 20th National Congress, there will be no more active, more direct, more specific, and even more unexpected policies to promote reunification, including a more complete "Two Systems Taiwan Plan".
In other words, the report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China is not a forewarning of Taiwan's "preparing to stand the major test of high winds and waves and even stormy waves"?
20th National Congress | Xi Jinping: Chinese-style modernization is both the most difficult and the greatest 20th National Congress report to strive for the prospect of peaceful reunification Report of the 20th National Congress | Xi Jinping did not mention the "1992 Consensus" orally Su Qi: Peaceful reunification weakens the 20th National Congress report Taiwan focuses on "army reunification" National Taiwan University scholars predict: use war to force peace, and go hand in hand with military force to advance the 20th Congress "Taiwan Province" "Representatives of the Nationalities" group photo was exposed and collectively called for cross-strait reunification: always listen to the party's call for the 20th National Congress | Cross-strait showdown is the key in the next 5 years?
Taiwanese scholars: There is an agenda for unification, no timetable for the 20th National Congress | Xi Jinping: Never promise to give up the use of force to solve the Taiwan issue. Applause lasts 24 seconds. Full text of the 20th National Congress report on Taiwan.