The last line of the election campaign is also, to be honest, its first line.
Despite the tension, the uncertainty and the feeling that this time (as always, to be honest) every vote is decisive, the major parties failed to arouse interest and spur their voters to do everything in their power to bring about a decision in the desired direction.
In the next week and a half, until the elections, the candidates will do what they have done up until now: Netanyahu will continue to try to wake up the Likudniks in their sleepy strongholds, and Lapid will continue his self-branding campaign as a first-rate statesman.
The strategic moves have already been formulated, the next actions are already carefully planned, but each of the parties has its X factor, the thorn in the butt that they have not been able to get rid of so far, the small factor that could turn the bowl upside down and ruin all the plans.
For Netanyahu this is Ayelet Shaked.
Lapid is Benny Gantz.
Three months of campaigning did not bring any breakthrough in the attempts to shake them and get them out of the way.
Around Netanyahu, those present testify, the pressure is increasing.
Some even describe a feeling of panic.
As in all previous election campaigns, it doesn't matter who holds which position and who is designated as the director of the election headquarters - in the bottom line, Netanyahu himself manages the whole business from A to Z.
Before the holidays there was a slight tinge of optimism on his face.
The internal polls showed that the right-wing bloc was in the lead, 62 to 63.
Everyone who talked to him heard one message: the polls published in the media are wrong.
They do not take into account the revival of Likud voters.
This time, he was sure, they would come in droves.
A year and a bit in the opposition was enough for them.
The coalition with the left and the Arabs drove them crazy.
On top of that, he told them, the visits every evening to the neighborhoods where "golden polling stations" were located, i.e. sites with low voting rates in Likud strongholds, will result in significant participation in the elections this time, and this the surveyors do not see.
So he was convinced.
But that was a long time ago.
In the last week, after dozens of visits to the streets and neighborhoods of the golden polling stations, the expected increase in the polls did not come.
Neither in the media nor in the internal polls conducted by Likud members.
Complete shuffling.
Netanyahu gave full gas, but the fear is that all this was in neutral.
And when this reality slaps him in the face the atmosphere changes, the tension rises, the tones become harsh and chaos begins to rule.
Even to the question of what to do with Shaked, Netanyahu does not have an unequivocal answer.
His family members exert heavy pressure to step on her and finish her off.
Netanyahu hesitates.
Other senior officials at the headquarters say that energy should not be invested during its unclear benefits.
And what comes out of all this is one continuous stutter.
While Netanyahu calls above all else not to waste the vote on a party that does not pass the threshold, he does not take other actions to try to collapse the party from within.
there is still hope.
Shaked, photo: Gideon Markovich
It's not like he has any doubt whether she passes or not.
It is clear to him that there is no way you will pass.
The important question for him is where the votes will go if you resign.
Some percent of them will migrate to the right to Likud or religious Zionism, and some to the left, to Gantz and Lapid.
As long as there is uncertainty on the subject, Netanyahu has difficulty deciding.
In the meantime, Shaked, who broadcasts that she will compete until the end, does not pass the percentage of blocking in any survey.
On the face of it, this fact is enough to make her decide to retire in the coming week.
However, her and her people's hope - probably false hopes in the current situation - is that something will happen at the last minute, that maybe Netanyahu will finally come to his senses, realize that she is his only chance to reach the long-awaited 61st mandate and call for a vote for her so that she passes the threshold.
In the meantime, Shaked enjoys the support of influential parties, such as Rabbi Madan, who breathe a spirit of hope in the unlikely race she is running.
Waiting in the corner
Beyond the polls and the analysis of the possibilities before the opening of the polls, Netanyahu notices the volcano that is beginning to bubble under his feet.
Mainly among his friends in Likud, but also at the top of the ultra-orthodox parties, the so-called natural partners.
Now, before the elections, everyone broadcasts unity, follows him and does not squint to any side.
Even if he asks them to sign a letter of loyalty or requires them to be interviewed by the media and swear loyalty to him - they will do so.
But beneath the surface the other voices are clearly heard.
The ones that are said in the last few days in every yeshiva and every random meeting.
that this time is his last chance.
If it fails, the right-wing bloc will not remain as it was.
Likud may not either.
Because to be honest, with all the respect for loyalty towards Netanyahu that the voters of those parties expect, sitting in the opposition drives them crazy.
Ra'am received 54 billion shekels in the last year, and they are - zero.
Not this one, the arrows continue to be directed at them, even though they have long been removed from the centers of power. Avigdor Lieberman is already an old story, recently Merav Michaeli also discovered the secret of success that is promised to those who beat the ultra-Orthodox , and she also started riding them in an attempt to pass the blocking percentage.
Netanyahu understands that in the next loyalty test the ultra-Orthodox will probably fail, if he does not have 61. Although there is no certainty of an alternative coalition with the ultra-Orthodox and with the parties of the left bloc, the danger certainly exists.
Another danger is the one developing from the direction of Likud, inside the house.
The dismissal of Haim Katz from his position at the election headquarters by Israel Katz looks like the first swallow in the internal battles within the party.
If the Likud forms the government, things will calm down.
Nothing like government positions to help calm the spirits.
But if not - God bless you.
Netanyahu will have to work hard to keep the package intact.
It is not certain that this will lead to a rebellion or a split within the party, nevertheless the Likud DNA does not allow one to go against the incumbent leader so easily. But a loss this time in the elections may be much more challenging than usual, and may manifest itself in a lack of factional discipline, in a show of muscle on the part of individual MKs, In intensive briefings against Netanyahu in the media, and much more.
A slippery and dangerous slope for Netanyahu.
His only consolation is that no honey is being licked today on the other side either.
Benny Gantz's insistence on declaring himself a candidate for Prime Minister forced Lapid to choose to grow as much as he can, something that came directly at the expense of his bloc's parties.
It is enough that one of them does not pass to be immediately thrown into the opposition.
Lapid's great advantage over his rivals is the power of inertia.
If there is no decision, he will remain the prime minister.
The big disadvantage is that if there is a government - it probably won't be headed by him.
Gantz has a higher chance than him of forming a coalition if Netanyahu does not have 61.
Holiness and politics
It is a well-known tradition in the Chabad village to invite public figures and dignitaries to "second laps" on the evening of Simchat Torah. This is a particularly massive and uplifting event, which crowds from all over the country attend and come to celebrate in the village together with its Hasidic residents. This year, which is considered the "Year of the Crowd", this Coming after the Shmita year, in which the Rebbe instructed to hold mass gatherings as much as possible, especially many people came. According to the police estimate, about 15 thousand people were present.
Gantz and Saar in Kfar Chabad, photo: Yossi Zeliger
The number of politicians who wanted to come to the event also increased accordingly.
It is not certain that everyone knew that this was the year of the audience, what is certain is that they knew that in two weeks there are elections.
Bnei Gantz or Gideon Sa'ar, who were at the event, do not delude themselves that they will receive the support of the Chabadniks, but they know that for other potential voters their photos dancing with a Torah scroll and receiving respect and praise from Chabad followers and Chabad rabbis have priceless value. Just before going to the polls.
Whoever thought of the organizers of the event thought that it would be honorable to allow the dignitaries who came to deliver words of blessing on the spot.
The words of blessing naturally turned into election speeches in the midst of the holy and solemn occasion.
The organizers realized they were wrong, when the speeches of Gantz and Saar were interrupted by boos from the audience.
It was not the Chabadniks who shouted, but some of the many guests.
End of act in thought
But the damage has already been done.
Chabad, which distances itself, by order of the Rebbe, from politics, suddenly found itself in the heart of the political cauldron against its will and against its will, when precisely in this event it was revealed that Netanyahu is not willing to be caught in close proximity to Itamar Ben Gabir, for fear that such an image will damage his candidacy.
It was when Ben Gabir, who works hard for Chabad in the Knesset, arrived in the village minutes before Netanyahu's salvage car also arrived at the scene. It quickly became clear that the latter was not ready to get out of the car and come to the stage as long as Ben Gabir was sitting on it. The organizers had no choice, and they They began to plead with Ben Gabir to come down to allow Netanyahu to enter. The chairman of Otzma Yehudit was hurt and left the place in a rage.
Not long after, he relented and returned to the dance floor.
This was not how things had to be.
To another Chabad event, which took place that very evening at the Hasidic court in New York, the ambassador to the United Nations, Gilad Erdan, was invited.
There were many thousands present, but no one thought that he should be allowed to speak.
Inviting him to the "coffee" and allowing him to rejoice with a Torah scroll in front of him, all this is respectable enough.
In the Chabad village, they probably didn't think through, and Netanyahu's speech was an election speech after all. The matter was so severe that the rabbi of the settlement sent a sharp letter to the administration vigorously protesting the turning of the circumambulation into a political event. This is despite the fact that none of the Hasidim were tainted or suspected in political action. It was only the location that led to the incident, which could have happened anywhere else.
Netanyahu's office vehemently denied that he avoided sitting across from Ben Gabir.
On the other hand, they had difficulty presenting their own version of the incident, one that makes sense.
The event sharpened the question and managed to further mislead the doubt about Netanyahu's preferred coalition composition in case of victory.
Despite the clear messages that he turned to a right-wing government, it seems that other options are also on the table.
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