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These are the 6 states to watch in the US midterms.

2022-10-24T19:56:11.034Z


Here's what you need to know about the six states that could change the political and legislative landscape in the upcoming midterm elections.


(CNN) --

Six US states will be at the center of the political universe this November: the five that President Joe Biden flipped in 2020 -- Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin -- plus Nevada.


All of these states have multiple critical races that will determine control of the Senate, House, and state governments.

What happens in these states will impact issues like abortion rights, economic policy, education, and the climate crisis, not just within their borders, but across the country.

Here's everything you need to know about the biggest states, and key races, ahead of the 2022 midterms.

CNN's Election Center uses election ratings from Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales, which provides nonpartisan analysis of the Senate, House and gubernatorial races.

Actual state

Clear

Democratic

advantage in an uncompetitive race

Clear

Democrat

advantage with the possibility of an upset defeat

advertising

Slight Democratic

edge

in competitive race

Slight

Democratic

lead in very competitive race

Uncertain

Slight

Republican

lead in highly competitive race

Slight Republican

edge

in competitive race

Clear

Republican

advantage with the possibility of an upset loss

Clear

Republican

advantage in an uncompetitive race

Senate

Democrats need at least 50 seats to maintain control of the Senate, with Vice President Kamala Harris giving them the tiebreaking vote for the majority, while Republicans need 51 to gain control.

Of the 35 seats on this year's ballot, Republicans are currently favorites to win 20 seats, while Democrats are favorites to win 12 seats.

There are 3 seats where the decision is uncertain.

seats at stake

Democrats are favorites to win

12

seats.

They need to win

14

to keep their majority.

Republicans are the favorites to win

20

seats.

They need to win

22

to get a majority.

House of Representatives

To control the US House of Representatives, a party must have 218 of the 435 seats.

Republicans are currently favorites to win 212 seats in November, while Democrats are favorites to win 205 seats.

19 seats are currently considered to be up for grabs by either party.

seats at stake

Democrats are favorites to win

205

seats.

The Republicans are the favorites to win

212

seats.

states to consider

Arizona

Summary

In 2020, Biden became the first Democratic presidential nominee to win Arizona since Bill Clinton won the state in 1996. Biden and Clinton are the only Democratic presidential nominees to win the state in more than 70 years.

don't lose sight

Republicans hope to win back Arizona after Democrats made inroads into the battleground state in 2020, when Biden carried the state and Mark Kelly flipped a Senate seat for Democrats.

However, the GOP is not fielding moderate Republicans to help that cause.

Republican gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake and Republican Senate candidate Blake Masters were endorsed by Trump and have expressed skepticism that Biden legitimately won the state.

A large voting bloc in Arizona that could end up deciding this close election is Latinos, who made up 19% of the Arizona electorate in 2020, according to exit polls.

This block of key votes opted for Biden, who obtained 61% of the Latino vote, compared to 37% for Trump.

Democrats will need to do well in Maricopa County to keep their Senate seat and win the governorship.

The county, which includes Phoenix, is home to the majority of Arizona's registered voters.

key elections

US Senate

Slight Democratic lead

Senator Mark Kelly (D) vs. Blake Masters (R)

Governor

Uncertain

Kari Lake (R) vs. Katie Hobbs (R)

House of Representatives

small republican advantage

AZ-01: Rep. David Schweikert (R) vs. Jevin Hodge (R)

House of Representatives

small republican advantage

AZ-02: Rep. Tom O'Halleran (R) vs. Eli Crane (R)

House of Representatives

Democratic Advantage

AZ-04: Rep. Greg Stanton (D) vs. Kelly Cooper (D)

House of Representatives

Slight Republican lead

AZ-06: Kirsten Engel (R) vs. Juan Ciscomani (R)

Secretary of state

Adrian Fontes (R) vs. Mark Finchem (R)

Plebiscite

Proposition 309- voter ID requirements for voting by mail and in person

demographic composition

Age

Under 18 (22%)

18-64 years (60%)

65 and over (18%)

Race and ethnicity:

White (53%)

Blacks (5%)

Latino (32%)

Asians (4%)

Gender

Female (50%)

Male (50%)

Georgia

Summary

When Biden won Georgia in the 2020 presidential election, he became the first Democrat since Bill Clinton in 1992 to win the state's electoral college votes, the only times Democratic presidential nominees have carried the state since the state's native Jimmy Carter was on the ballot.

don't lose sight

The last two election cycles have shown how close elections can be in Georgia, and that is not likely to change this year.

Just as control of the Senate fell to Georgia in 2020, the same could happen in 2022.

Last cycle, Democrats Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock won Senate seats to shift control of the chamber to Democrats.

Warnock will now run for a full term against Trump-backed football star Herschel Walker, who continues to command the support of the GOP despite various scandals.

Republican Gov. Brian Kemp outlasted a Trump-backed primary challenger this cycle after rejecting Trump's 2020 election lies. Kemp won his first term in 2018, beating Democrat Stacey Abrams by just 55,000 votes.

Abrams never conceded, and the two will meet again in November, but this time Kemp enters the race as a Republican who ran against Trump.

If Abrams wins, she would be the first black female governor in US history.

key elections

US Senate

Uncertain

Senator Raphael Warnock (D) vs. Herschel Walker (R)

Governor

Slight Republican lead

Governor Brian Kemp (R) vs. Stacey Abrams (D)

House of Representatives

Democratic advantage

GA-02: Rep. Sanford Bishop (R) vs. Chris West (R)

Secretary of state

Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger (R) vs. Bee Nguyen (D)

demographic composition

Age

Under 18 (23%)

18-65 years (62%)

65 and over (15%)

race and ethnicity

White (51%)

Blacks (33%)

Latinos (10%)

Asians (5%)

Gender

Female (51%)

Male (49%)

Michigan

Summary

Biden brought Michigan back for the Democrats in 2020, after Donald Trump became the first Republican to win the state since George HW Bush in 1988. Biden carried Michigan by fewer than 155,000 votes.

don't lose sight

All eyes in Michigan will be on the state's gubernatorial race as Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer takes on conservative commentator Tudor Dixon, who hopes her endorsement of Trump will help turn the state Republican.

The right to abortion will also be on the ballot.

Democrats hope the issue will help increase turnout among their base voters.

  • Six takeaways from the primaries in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, Arizona and Washington

Voting and elections will also be key issues as Michigan voters decide on a ballot measure to expand access to the vote and elect a new Secretary of State.

Incumbent Democrat Jocelyn Benson is up against Republican Kristina Karamo, who has endorsed Trump's lies about the 2020 election.

To keep Michigan blue, Democrats will need to win Detroit-area counties, as well as boost scores in more Democratic-friendly parts of the state, like Ann Arbor and Lansing.

Republicans will likely have broad support in the western and northern parts of the state and will try to drum up more support in the historically conservative Grand Rapids area, which has become more Democratic in recent years.

key elections

Governor

Slight Democrat lead

Governor Gretchen Whitmer (D) vs. Tudor Dixon (R)

House of Representatives

Small Democratic lead

MI-03: John Gibbs (R) vs.

Hillary Scholten (D)

House of Representatives

Slight Democrat lead

MI-07: Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D) vs.

Tom Barrett (R)

House of Representatives

Small Democratic lead

MI-08: Rep. Dan Kildee (D) vs.

Paul Junge (R)

House of Representatives

small republican advantage

MI-10: Carl Marlinga (D) vs.

John James (R)

Secretary of state

Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson (R) vs. Kristina Karamo (R)

Plebiscite

Proposal 2: Amendment to Voting Rights Policies

Plebiscite

Proposal 3: Initiative on the right to reproductive freedom

demographic composition

Age

Menores de 18 años (21%)

18-64 años (61%)

65 y más años (18%)

Raza y etnia

Blancos (74%)

Negros (14%)

Latinos (6%)

Asiáticos (3%)

Género

Femenino (50%)

Masculino (50%)

Nevada

Resumen

Nevada votó por todos los ganadores presidenciales desde 1980 hasta 2012. Esa racha terminó cuando Hillary Clinton ganó el Estado de la Plata en 2016, pero volvió a la carga al elegir a Biden en 2020. Biden ganó el estado por un margen ligeramente inferior al de Clinton, a pesar de su mejor rendimiento a nivel nacional. Aunque los demócratas han ganado el estado en cada elección presidencial a partir de 2008, su margen se ha reducido cada vez.

No pierdas de vista

Mientras Nevada trata de recuperarse de una recesión pandémica que afectó especialmente a la industria del turismo, la senadora Catherine Cortez Masto y el gobernador Steve Sisolak se encuentran entre los candidatos en funciones más vulnerables del partido demócrata.

Cortez Masto se enfrenta a un desafío del ex fiscal general del estado, Adam Laxalt, que a pesar de perder una candidatura a gobernador en 2018, ganó en todo el estado en 2014. Sisolak se enfrenta a Joe Lombardo, el sheriff del condado más grande del estado.

La democracia también estará en la boleta, ya que el republicano Jim Marchant, que ha puesto en duda las elecciones de 2020, busca competir en las elecciones de Nevada como secretario de Estado.

Los candidatos republicanos suelen tener mejores resultados en los condados rurales más escasamente poblados del estado. Sin embargo, las contiendas estatales suelen definirse en Las Vegas, de tendencia demócrata, y en las comunidades circundantes del condado de Clark.

Elecciones clave

Senado de EE.UU

Incierto

Senadora Catherine Cortez Masto (D) contra Adam Laxalt (R)

Gobernador

Incierto

Gobernador Steve Sisolak (D) contra Joe Lombardo (R)

Cámara de Representantes

Ligera ventaja demócrata

Rep. Dina Titus (D) contra Mark Robertson (R)

Cámara de Representantes

Ligera ventaja demócrata

NV-03: Rep. Susie Lee (D) contra April Becker (R)

Cámara de Representantes

Pequeña ventaja demócrata

NV-04: Rep. Steven Horsford (D) contra Sam Peters (R)

Secretario de Estado

JJim Marchant (R) contra Cisco Aguilar (D)

Plebiscito

Pregunta 2: enmienda al salario mínimo

Plebiscito

Pregunta 3: iniciativa de votación por orden de importancia

Composición demográfica

Edad

Menores de 18 años (22%)

18-64 años (62%)

65 y más años (17%)

Raza y etnia

Blancos (47%)

Negros (11%)

Latinos(30%)

Asiáticos (9%)

Género

Femenino (50%)

Masculino (50%)

Pensilvania

Resumen

Biden recuperó a Pensilvania para los demócratas en 2020. Trump ganó por poco el estado en 2016, pero antes de eso, el estado había votado por los demócratas en seis elecciones presidenciales consecutivas.

No pierdas de vista

El estado que puso a Biden en la cima en 2020 será el hogar de algunas de las contiendas más importantes del Senado y por gobernador en el país este año.

Los republicanos esperan mantener un escaño abierto en el Senado con la ex personalidad de la televisión Mehmet Oz, mientras que el vicegobernador John Fetterman espera que su atractivo no tradicional pueda ayudarle a pasarle el escaño a los demócratas.

El fiscal General del Estado, Josh Shapiro, intenta mantener el control demócrata de la gobernación de Pensilvania en una carrera que ha cobrado mayor importancia porque el gobernador nombra al funcionario responsable de las elecciones. El oponente de Shapiro es el senador estatal republicano Doug Mastriano, que fue una figura central que apoyó los esfuerzos de Trump para anular las elecciones de 2020.

La base demócrata en Pensilvania reside en las zonas urbanas de Filadelfia y Pittsburgh, mientras que los republicanos se imponen en la parte central más rural del estado. Los suburbios de Filadelfia se han inclinado hacia los demócratas, mientras que los republicanos han ganado terreno en las zonas del oeste y el noreste del estado.

Elecciones clave

Senado de EE.UU

Incierto

Mehmet Oz (R) contra John Fetterman (D)

Gobernador

Pequeña ventaja demócrata

Josh Shapiro (D) contra Doug Mastriano (R)

Cámara de Representantes

Incierto

PA-07: Rep. Susan Wild (D) contra Lisa Scheller (R)

Cámara de Representantes

Incierto

PA-08: Rep. Matthew Cartwright (D) contra Jim Bognet (R)

Cámara de Representantes

Incierto

PA-17 (Escaño Abierto D): Chris Deluzio (D) contra Jeremy Shaffer (R)

Composición demográfica

Edad

Menores de 18 años (21%)

18-64 años (60%)

65 y más años (19%)

Raza y etnia

Blancos (75%)

Negros (12%)

Latinos (9%)

Asiáticos (4%)

Género

Femenino (51%)

Masculino (49%)

Wisconsin

Resumen

En 2020, Biden regresó Wisconsin a los demócratas por menos de un punto después de que Trump ganara por poco el estado en 2016. La victoria de Trump rompió la racha de los candidatos presidenciales demócratas: habían ganado las siete elecciones anteriores.

No pierdas de vista

Wisconsin es uno de los estados más divididos del país, y el senador republicano Ron Johnson y el gobernador demócrata Tony Evers se enfrentan a campañas de reelección muy competitivas.

Johnson, que tiene un historial de declaraciones controvertidas sobre la pandemia y el atentado del 6 de enero, se enfrenta al vicegobernador demócrata Mandela Barnes, que en un momento dado se mostró partidario de desfinanciar a la policía.

Evers se enfrenta al empresario republicano Tim Michels, que se ganó el apoyo de Trump en las primarias al amplificar agresivamente las mentiras electorales del expresidente en 2020.

Democrats receive the most support from Milwaukee, a historically blue-collar region, and from the capital of Madison.

The base of the Republican Party is in the more affluent northern and western suburbs of Milwaukee, as well as in the less populous counties of central Wisconsin.

key elections

US Senate

Slight Republican lead

Senator Ron Johnson (R) vs. Mandela Barnes (D)

Governor

Uncertain

Governor Tony Evers (D) vs. Tim Michels (R)

House of Representatives

small republican advantage

WI-03: Brad Pfaff (R) vs. Derrick Van Orden (R)

demographic composition

Age

Under 18 (22%)

18-64 years (61%)

65 and over (18%)

race and ethnicity

Whites (80%)

Blacks (7%)

Latino (8%)

Asians (3%)

Gender

Female (50%)

Male (50%)

Source: cnnespanol

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