Hong Kong implemented the "0+3" entry quarantine measures on September 26, and it was "full moon" yesterday (26).
On September 26, the number of arrivals through the airport rose from 5,256 before the implementation on September 25, to 11,635 on October 23; the number of imported cases during the same period also increased from more than 100 to more than 200, climbing to 10 In the second half of the month, the number of imported cases exceeded 400, and the ratio of imported cases to the total number of confirmed cases reached 9.72% on October 3, compared with the rise before the implementation.
Six new mutant viruses were recorded in imported cases in Hong Kong, including 169 cases of XBB, 6 cases of XBD, 6 cases of BA.2.75.2, 5 cases of BA.4.6, 11 cases of BF.7 and 15 cases of BQ.1.1 sublineage. Among the local cases, a total of 5 XBD, 3 BQ.1.1 and 1 BA.2.75.2 sublineage cases were found.
Respiratory specialist Liang Zichao said that after the implementation of "0+3", the number of tourists visiting Hong Kong has increased, and it is expected that the spread of the mutant virus will gradually catch up with the rest of the world.
He also pointed out that the current gene sequence analysis conducted by the government is extremely limited. There are tens of thousands of cases in Hong Kong a week, and the government may only perform sequence analysis of 1%. The newly discovered virus cases may only be the tip of the iceberg.
▼The arrival level of the airport on the first day of the implementation of the entry quarantine "0+3" on September 26▼
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In the past month, the number of confirmed cases in a single day rose from 3,000 to over 4,000 in late September, and climbed to over 5,000 around mid-October.
After the implementation of the new measures, the number of arrivals through the airport has increased.
From mid-June until before the measures were implemented, the number of arrivals hovered at the level of 2,000 to more than 8,000, and it was only on August 29 that the number of arrivals exceeded 8,000 for the first time, reaching 8,206.
After the measures were implemented, the number of people entering the country in mid-to-late October exceeded 10,000 for three times, and 11,635 people entered the country on October 23.
Most of the arrivals are local residents.
The number of imported cases also rose from over 100 to over 200 in mid-June to September, and climbed to over 400 in late October, an increase of more than doubling.
The ratio of imported cases to the total number of confirmed cases also showed an upward trend compared with before the implementation. The ratio from June to July hovered at 6% to a maximum of 10.65%.
From late August to late September, the ratio showed a downward trend, once falling to 1% to 2%.
After the implementation of the new measures, the ratio rose again, reaching 9.72% on October 3.
However, the average imported diagnosis rate on the 7th has not increased significantly, and it still hovers at the level of 3% to more than 5%.
Respiratory specialist Liang Zichao said that the newly mutated virus varieties, including XBB, XBD, BA.2.75.2, BA.4.6, BF.7 and BQ.1.1 sublineages, are all branches of Omicron virus. For example, XBB is an Omicron virus. Two BA.2 clade hybrids etc.
He pointed out that after the implementation of "0+3", the number of tourists from all over the world has increased, and it is expected that the spread of the mutant virus strains will gradually catch up with the rest of the world. Naturally, as the flow of people and logistics tightens, the virus will resume, and it is expected.” He pointed out that the new measures will allow new cases of the mutated virus to flow into the community, “(The new measures) means that there will be no quarantine. ...drop the defense."
He believes that the current gene sequence analysis carried out by the government is extremely limited. There are tens of thousands of cases in Hong Kong every week, and the government may only perform sequence analysis of 1%. The newly discovered virus cases may only be the tip of the iceberg.
He said that L452R-negative cases seem to have increased a lot in the past period, but there are currently a variety of mutant viruses, whether L452R-negative or positive, there are also other mutant virus branches, emphasizing that the current test is difficult to distinguish further immunity Escaped virus branch.
Liang Zichao, a specialist in respiratory system, said that after the implementation of "0+3", the number of tourists visiting Hong Kong has increased, and it is expected that the spread of the mutant virus will gradually catch up with the rest of the world.
(file picture)
As for whether there will be another large-scale epidemic in Hong Kong in winter?
Liang Zichao said that it is temporarily difficult to assess the actual situation in winter. It depends on the degree of attenuation of herd immunity in Hong Kong. The protection obtained after injection and infection will decrease with time, and the protection against infection will decrease faster. "(Time) The more you stand apart, the more uncertain you become.”
He also does not know whether there will be a special mutant virus in winter, and another big wave will be set off, but he believes that the chance of another big outbreak will be slim.
He pointed out that Omicron has been around for 11 months, and "almost drove away the old mutants (Delta, etc.)". Omicron also seems to have been highly adapted to the new host of humans, and there is reason to believe that the virus has stabilized, so in the short term Not necessarily too risky.
Leung reminded that even if there is no other major outbreak, the elderly and chronically ill are at much higher risk of severe illness and death than young, healthy people, so caution is still needed.
In addition, in terms of the total number of hospitalized patients, there were more than 2,000 cases from late August to mid-to-late September. After the implementation of "0+3", the number of cases hovered close to 2,000, and there was no obvious upward trend. The number of hospitalized patients is also lower than the more than 300 cases in late August.
After the implementation of the new measures, the number of new critical cases in a single day is still hovering in the single digits, and the number of new serious cases in a single day is also hovering in the single digits, only twice reaching 10 cases.
As for the total number of critically ill patients, after the implementation of the new measures, the average number of critically ill cases hovered around 60 to 80 on the 7th, a decrease from the over 100 cases in early and mid-September.
The average number of cases requiring intensive treatment on the 7th day also showed a downward trend after the implementation, from more than 10 cases to hovering in single digits for the past 9 days.
In addition, after the implementation and from June to September, there was no significant difference in the number of newly hospitalized patients compared with the total number of hospitalized patients, both hovering at the level of more than 10%.
The total number of new critically ill patients in a single day compared with the total number of hospitalized patients has hovered around 0% to 1% in the past few months; the total number of new critically ill patients in a single day compared with the total number of new hospitalized patients has been as much as 3% to 7% since late July.
As for the number of deaths, after the implementation of "0+3", the number of deaths has mostly remained in single digits, only occasionally rising to a low level of 10 to 14 cases, which is less than the number of cases in early and mid-September.
The average number of deaths on the 7th also remained in single digits, which was also lower than the number of cases in early and mid-September.
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