Too many landlords
A senior MK from the right estimates that many religious-nationalist voters have not yet decided who to vote for. So much so, that we even found a Lieberman voter. Anonymously of course
At the entrance to one of the largest settlements in Judea and Samaria there is a huge sign.
"It doesn't matter where you've been all year, on Rosh Hashanah you always come home," was written under Ayelet Shaked's photo.
A few meters later there was already a row of signs with the picture of Itamar Ben Gvir - "Who is the owner of the house here? It's time Ben Gvir" - and next to them signs with the picture of Benjamin Netanyahu: "Only the Likud can."
A picture that illustrates what is currently going on in the minds of many national religious people, who even close to the moment of truth have no idea who they will vote for.
A senior member of Knesset in one of the right-wing parties estimated last week that there are thousands who are debating religious Zionism.
"What does it matter if they have or don't have a political house," he said in frustration, "you choose someone who is close to your positions, not a bride. These debates will cost us dearly."
Indeed, the religious-nationalist public, with an emphasis on those who settle in Yosh, is in a difficult dilemma. The fact that the Right took over the Jewish Home, the former MDF, and then dragged it into the dustbin of history - unless some miracle happens and Shaked passes, after emphasizing this week that you run to the end - left many religious people without a clear political home.
For decades, the PFDF provided many of the religious people in Petah Tikva, Givat Shmuel, Ofra or settlements in the Yosh with the intermediate solution - right-wing alongside religious liberalism, something that is not on the agenda now.
At least four parties are now trying to fill the place of the historical MPDL - the Likud, the religious Zionists, the Jewish Home, and part of the state camp (Gideon Sa'ar, Matan Kahana, Hili Trooper and Ze'ev Elkin). Each in turn tries to explain why he is the one who represents more the religious
"I'm voting for Lieberman," surprises Yehoshua (pseudonym).
He refuses to be interviewed by name because in the locality where he lives this is considered subversive, "I have no one to vote for, and Lieberman gives me the opportunity to have right wing alongside liberalism".
Shlomo Izek Petach Tikva will debate until the last minute between religious Zionism and the Jewish Home: "On the one hand, I really like Bezalel Smotrich and Orit Struck, but I have a bit of a hard time with Noam's party. The problem is that I find it hard to believe that Ayelet Shaked will pass the threshold, and there is no A situation where I'm throwing my voice away."
Isaac's last statement is important, because it symbolizes more than anything the long-standing mindset of the national religious, according to which voting is sacred and there is no possibility of not going to the polls on election day.
For this reason, many are trying in every way to reach a decision in the last days of the election campaign, in order to reach the ballot box with a unified opinion.
Gantz's failure
"There is definitely a phenomenon of undecided people in the recent period, especially the adults who were born with a mustache and sandals who suddenly have no party, but this is diminishing, and they mostly converge on Likud and religious Zionism," says Menachem Lazar of the polling institute Panel Politics, who knows the Leumi religious sector well.
"Unlike the Arab voters who sit at home when they are annoyed - to go out and vote, as part of the state ethos, is in the gardens of the religious-nationalists. Therefore, I detect a reduction in hesitation in the run-up to the elections.
"Yes, there are people who are in a real dilemma. Since 1956, they had a party, even if they didn't always vote for it, it was there for them. Like two synagogues, even if you don't enter one of them - it's asleep. Suddenly there's no one to vote for, and they really Embarrassed. They feel homeless. There are so many parties that claim to be their home, but they are still orphans."
At the beginning of the election campaign, it seemed that quite a few of the religious would vote for the state camp, and it seemed that the party was aiming for this - whether with the arrival of Gadi Eisenkot in Gush Etzion, or in the video in which Trooper and Matan Kahana soldiers tried to convince that they are flesh and blood of religious Zionism.
From tours of cities with religious concentrations and settlements in Yosh, it appears that there is no drift towards this party.
Lazar: "The fact that they have a right-wing side in the list, in the form of Sa'ar and Elkin, and a center-left side of Benny Gantz and Eisenkot, confuses the people, and therefore it seems that they miss the public who might have voted for them. Gantz missed these guys."
On the way to a double digit number
Those who will probably benefit from this are Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben Gvir.
In the Yesh, for example, they already won significant percentages of votes in the previous election, and the wave of terrorism that is currently taking place throughout Judea and Samaria clearly affects the mood. "Everyone has acquaintances and friends in the Yesh, and they hear the stories about the stone throwing and attacks," says Lazar , "You can clearly see that the more attacks there are - people are more right-wing. Every time there is a conflict - it sharpens these feelings."
Smotrich, who is well aware that there is a religious public that is undecided, is making efforts these days to bring it to him.
Activists of the religious Zionist party have in recent days flooded the concentrations of the religious-nationalist crowd and the Yishuvs in Yosh, and hung up masses of signs in an attempt to gather support.
In settlements that are considered more right-wing, these were signs of Ben Gabir.
The system seems to be working, and the public that previously voted to the right is not flocking to Shaked, but rather to those who were once considered more extreme.
Lazar: "Will it end in 14 mandates or 12? I believe it will be in a very strong double digit number."
*****
The key: realizing the potential
Choose "lazy"?
Sleepy voices?
Netanyahu does not want anyone to stay at home this time
The working assumption of the Likud holds that the key to Balfour is hidden somewhere in Bat Yam, Dimona, Shlomi or Yeruham - or rather in all of them.
This is the "sleeping Likudniks" theory, according to which between 200,000 and 300,000 Likud supporters are scattered throughout the geographic and social periphery who did not vote in the previous rounds, and if the party succeeds in getting even a part of them out of their indifference - Binyamin Netanyahu will finally obtain the coveted 61st mandate.
Shmuel Rosner: "In my estimation, the voter turnout in Likud cities will increase, but it is not certain that this will be enough for Likud. I tend to think that part of the fatigue of the party's supporters was not only due to complacency, but also from disappointment and exhaustion."
But is this a valid theory or an outlet for desperation built in the heads of the Likud campaign managers, in their fifth attempt to break the tie and return the party to power?
"This theory has a basis in reality," says Shmuel Rosner, editor of the "Hmedd" website, which deals with the analysis of trends in the fields of politics, society, culture and identity in Israel, "more precisely, I would say that not all of these voices are in the periphery, but in the so-called 'Jewish cities' In these cities, where support for Likud is high, there is a phenomenon of a lower voter turnout than in other cities."
According to Rosner, "the important question is why these people did not come to vote - was it due to indifference or because they were a little fed up with the Likud? Apparently some of them were complacent, some were exhausted from the many election campaigns, but it seems that some of them also felt that the goods that the Likud sold them were not good enough." .
However, Rosner believes that the current election system is characterized by a fundamental change, which gives Netanyahu a chance to succeed in bringing his supporters out of indifference: "This time Likud comes from a position of opposition, and the desire to return to power is stronger than the desire to preserve it. I estimate that the voter turnout in these cities will increase, but no Certainly if it is enough for Likud, since I tend to think that part of the fatigue of the party's supporters was not only due to complacency, but also from certain feelings of disappointment and exhaustion."
Dr. Nir Atmor, political science lecturer at Safed Academic College and former researcher at the Israel Democracy Institute, also believes that the "sleeping votes" theory held by Likud regarding the periphery is grounded in reality: "This phenomenon exists not only in the last election rounds - traditionally the voter turnout in the periphery , who is affiliated with the Likud, are lower."
The erosion of the periphery
Atmore presents a series of instructive data to support his claim: for example, the voter turnout in Modi'in, where only 20.3% chose Likud in 2021, was 74.9% - well above the national average, which was 67%.
In contrast, the turnout in Sderot, where more than twice (compared to Modi'in) those with the right to vote voted for Likud (41.2%), was only 59.8%.
Similar numbers can be seen all over the country: in Ramat Hasharon, for example, where only 15.1% chose Likud, the turnout was 71.8%.
In contrast, in Dimona, where 54.9% of those with the right to vote chose Likud, only 56.3% bothered to go out to vote.
In addition to this, Atmore points to a problematic trend for the Likud: "The voter attrition rate in the peripheral cities is greater, and the turnout in them dropped more sharply in the last elections compared to the turnout in the established cities."
However, he also finds an opportunity for the Likud to win the elections "indirectly", by increasing the voter turnout in the periphery: "If the Likud succeeds in the task, then the total number of voters in the country will increase, and as a result of this, the number of votes required to reach the threshold will increase. Such a development may To drop below the threshold one of the parties of the center-left bloc, with an emphasis on Ra'am and Hadash-Ta'al, which according to the latest polls are only a few thousand votes above the blocking percentage."
But in order to succeed in this, the Likud must exhaust almost every vote from its potential pool in the periphery.
Conversations with party officials indicate that the main emphasis in the current election system is on the great effort of activists and volunteers who go door to door with the aim of locating the potential voters, taking their contact information and making sure they get to the polls on election day.
Those voters, by the way, were recently nicknamed "lazy" by Channel 14's Shimon Riklin, in a statement that caused a storm and angered many of them, and it will be interesting to see if this will have an effect on their choice at the ballot box.
The bitterness of the old activists
Likud expresses satisfaction with the "Bibi-Ba" project, within the framework of which Netanyahu conducts intensive field trips in Likud cities.
"For the first time in years, the Likudniks have returned to the squares, like in the days of Begin," said Eli Vered Hazan, head of Likud's public relations and foreign relations division, "the amount of people who come is very large, and despite the Shin Bet's demand for tight security, Netanyahu manages to touch the crowd and charm it.
I estimate that it will have an effect even at the moment of truth."
But not everyone is charmed.
Sources in the party, who asked to remain anonymous, also pointed out problems and according to them, the campaign managers "do not count" the veteran field operatives.
The resentment this causes, together with the lack of budgets, may harm the voting rates.
"There is justice and injustice in these claims," says a prominent activist in the party.
"Many activists who accompanied the Likud in the demonstrations and proved themselves not to be among the old guard of the branches, but this is no reason to exclude them from the campaign. On the other hand, there is justice in the claims against canceling the budget for the branches and transferring it to 'clusters' that are operated from above. These clusters are often appointed by H." and this situation deprives a lot of the power of the veteran activists whose indignation can be understood."
A Likud source said that the motive for these actions by Netanyahu is the traditional quarrels between the leaders in the branches: "If you give the lead to one of them, the other starts an Italian strike, so Netanyahu decided to avoid this and move the center of gravity outside the branches."
As far as Netanyahu is concerned, the only consideration before his eyes is maximizing the potential of the Likud voters, because if he fails again this time to obtain 61 seats, it is quite possible that the famous Likud's patience will run out, and then this could be his last election campaign.
*****
When fragmentation meets despair
Many in the Arab sector are disappointed with Ram's achievements in the coalition, and the separate running of the lists could play into the right's hands
The senior pollsters in the political system agree among themselves that the voting rates in the Arab sector will decide the current election system.
After the split of Balad from the joint, and the running of Ra'am separately, succeeding in blocking the percentage of even just two parties out of the three becomes a difficult task, and any possible result will directly affect the blocs.
Historically, the Arab sector votes in much lower percentages than the Jewish sector, and since 1999 - when 75 percent voted - the numbers have gone down dramatically, until in the last elections in 2021 a low of 44.6 percent was recorded.
But behind all these numbers and data lies a trend that may decide the upcoming elections.
The underground social movements that translate into the voting rate in the sector are a reflection of the conflict in Arab society regarding the question of whether to cooperate with the government that will be established.
In recent years, there has been a rapprochement in this area on the part of Ahmed Tibi and Ayman Odeh, who recommended Gantz in 2020, while paying lip service to the Arab street with national statements.
Pollsters with whom we spoke analyze that over the years, the elements in the Arab street who wanted a civil agenda grew stronger.
According to them, in the first round, in 2019, when the Arab representatives talked about nationalism, the public did not turn out to vote in high percentages and they received 10 mandates, in the second round Likud provoked the Arab sector because of the law of cameras in the polling stations, in the third round the joint united around a more agenda citizens and received a record of 15 mandates.
But despite the achievement and the relatively high participation rate, the Arab public saw that even after they recommended Gantz, Hauser and Handel refused to cooperate with them and a feeling of despair was created in the sector.
Mansur Abbas recognized the potential of a desire for change and a different agenda, and although he represents the religious line of the Islamic movement, he also followed a civil agenda that attracted secular elites in the sector.
Ra'am passed the blocking percentage and went the farthest in cooperation and joining the coalition.
The feeling on the Arab street regarding the sitting in the government is that the experiment has failed.
Now 30 percent of the sector's voters believe that there is no point in cooperating with the democratic game, and that there is no need to go out to vote;
Another 50 percent want to replace the leadership on the grounds that the representatives only care about themselves, so there is a trend of protest voting.
The secular elite is actually satisfied with Abbas's move, but he is paying a price for it that is gnawing at him in the nationalist corners, from where voices are flowing to Balad claiming that he was "too moderate" during the past year.
The mystery of voter turnout
Next to all these trends comes the story of the voting percentages.
"A month and a half ago, at the time the lists were closed and after the split of Balad, there was a consensus among pollsters that the voting rate in the Arab sector was estimated at 38 percent," says Shlomo Filber, owner of the polling company Direct Falls, the only one outside the sector that samples the Arab society objectively I have been saying every other day for the past few weeks, "It is very difficult to estimate the voter turnout now.
Those who do not participate in the democratic game do not answer surveys either, so it is impossible to sample 100 percent."
Filber explains the starting point after the split in Balad and the process that has happened so far in numbers: "In order to pass the blocking percentage, you need 15 thousand votes.
In general, there are about a million Arabs who have the right to vote.
As of a month and a half ago, as mentioned, there was talk of an estimate of 38 percent, that is, 380 thousand votes.
Historically, about a fifth vote for Jewish parties.
You are left with 300 thousand.
Subtract from that, let's say, 80 thousand votes that Balad 'burns', you are left with 240-220 thousand votes, and in this situation no Arab party passes.
"Now comes the question of how many percentages of the vote are needed to pass. It is estimated that because Ra'am has 80 percent of a loyal base after Balad took 20 percent, and as of a week before the elections the voting rate in the Arab sector climbed to 46%, Ra'am is in the region of the blockage.
At the moment there are two main scenarios: that Ra'am and Hadash-Ta'al will pass with eight mandates together and Bald will fall, or only Ra'am will pass."
In a scenario where only one Arab party passes, Netanyahu is expected to obtain 61 mandates or more.
But even if two parties pass and Balad burns a lot of votes, the left bloc will shrink, and the opposition leader will be the main gainer.
Another dangerous scenario for the left bloc is that an increase in the voting rate in the Arab sector could increase the amount of votes that each mandate is worth.
If the turnout is "too" high, Havoda and Meretz, who are on the threshold of the blocking percentage, will be required to get more votes to pass it.
Another assessment of what is expected in the sector can be obtained from a survey conducted by the Konrad Adenauer Foundation for Jewish-Arab Cooperation through the Yaffa Institute.
According to this survey, the voting rate of the Arab public is expected to be 49% - higher than that measured in the previous elections.
Of the three Arab lists, only Hadash-Ta'al is expected to pass the blocking percentage and receive 4.1 mandates from the Arab voters;
Ra'am is teetering on the brink of the blocking percentage with 3.7 mandates; Balad is expected to receive only 3.2 mandates.
In the segment of the Jewish parties, the Likud may receive 1.3 mandates from the Arab voters, Meretz - about half a mandate, and the Yesh Atid party - 0.3 mandate.
Against the backdrop of talk of a low voter turnout, many are asking why after a year in which Ra'am was a full partner in the coalition, received budgets and projects and was a central factor - the Arab public still expresses despair and disappointment. The answer lies in the bureaucracy. The funds that were promised and approved for the Arab sector thanks to Ra'am did not arrived in the area, the Arab citizen did not feel equal in the various areas of life and infrastructure, and the rampant crime did not stop.
The ones who pocketed the money are the officials in the government offices and some will say that there is an ironic dimension to this, if in the end the same officials, who for years have been severely criticized by the right-wing government, are the ones who will pave the way back for him, if the Arab public does not come out to vote in all its disappointment with the system.
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