Not the justice system, not the soft right and probably not the security situation either.
It is clear to all parties that no significant shift between the blocs is expected, therefore what is expected to decide the upcoming election is the voter turnout.
Therefore, the main attention of the two major parties will be concentrated on election day in several cities and critical places where it will be decided whether Likud will succeed in growing and whether Yesh Atid will fulfill its mission to become the largest party.
These cities are considered the "golden polling stations" after which the major parties will follow with great piety and great tension.
In Likud we marked the cities of Beit Shean, Tiberias, Dimona, Tirat Carmel, Kiryat Gat, Afula and Ariel as significant cities.
These are cities where there are high concentrations of Likud voters and in the previous elections over 50% voted for the party.
According to the party's estimates, if there is a significant increase in voting in these cities, the Likud's chances of achieving victory will increase significantly.
Struggle for the key cities, Netanyahu at an election conference in Or Yehuda, photo: Yossi Zeliger
Besides these cities, the Likud will also focus on polling stations in specific neighborhoods, for example the Jesse Cohen neighborhood in Holon or the Hatikva neighborhood in south Tel Aviv.
On the other hand, Lish Atid will religiously follow their focus cities, among them: Haifa, Rehovot, Ramat Hasharon, Tel Aviv, Herzliya, Petah Tikva, Ra'anana and more. Here, too, these are cities where the voter turnout for Lish Atid was high in the past, and therefore the party sees great potential to grow stronger Because of this, the party will try to increase the voter turnout in order to maximize its power.
The Arab representation is in danger
Another particularly significant figure in the upcoming election is the percentage of votes in the Arab sector.
According to the analysis of the parties, if the Arab public registers voting percentages as low as 40%, a less likely scenario, the three Arab parties are in danger of not passing the blocking percentage.
If there are 45% voting in the Arab sector, it is likely that one of the lists will pass and maybe one of them will fall.
If there are 50% or more, it is likely that the two major Arab parties (RAM and Ha'd-Tal) will pass the blocking percentage.
Another important figure is the gap between the number of voters of the right wing and the left wing.
It is known that the voters of the right-wing bloc vote less (weak socioeconomic strata vote in lower percentages) than the voters of the center-left bloc.
According to an estimate in the Likud, if the gap in the previous elections, which was nine percent, is reduced to 3.5%, the Likud's chance of victory increases.
Cares for one of the key cities, Lapid at a party conference in Tel Aviv,
In the meantime, Prime Minister Yair Lapid yesterday referred to the sting sent to him by Benny Gantz at the "Israel Today" conference on Thursday where he was asked whether, in Gantz's opinion, Lapid understands confidently and replied that "he understands what I tell him".
Lapid was interviewed this morning on the Walla website, he was asked about Gantz's statement and replied "Gantz's people wrote to me later that it was an unsuccessful statement and that's not what he meant and they were a little embarrassed by it, I said that nothing happened."
"Not voting - blasphemy"
In the shadow of the fight over voter turnout, after the publications in "Israel Hayom" about the fear of complacency on the ultra-Orthodox street, Torah Judaism yesterday held election conferences in ultra-Orthodox cities in an attempt to encourage the ultra-Orthodox public to come out and vote in large numbers.
The fear in the right-wing bloc is that the ultra-Orthodox will lose a mandate because of the complacency of voters who will stay at home.
Fighting for the votes of ultra-Orthodox voters (for illustration), photo: Herzi Shapira
Rabbi Gershon Edelstein, leader of the Lithuanian ultra-orthodox world, said yesterday at one of the conferences, "Unfortunately for us, there are some of our Israeli brothers who want to uproot the mitzvot and prevent education from the children.
Decrees on yeshiva members who will not be able to engage in Torah.
There are those who want it, according to the rabbi, "Whoever refrains from voting and participating is blaspheming, disrespecting the honor of the King of Kings."
He doesn't care." Other rabbis claimed at the conference, "There is a party today called Yesh Atid.
There are two sides to the coin.
On the one hand - there is a future, but on the other hand there is no past.
Without linking us to the holy fathers.
Those who want to disconnect the people from the past, they have no future." They also added that "the situation is a fire outside and we need to cry out for help."
In the ranks of religious Zionism, MK Itamar Ben Gabir called a press conference yesterday in which he said that he will demand the internal security portfolio in the next government. "In the last few months, hundreds of police officers, fighters and officers have contacted me and told me Ben Gabir, come save the police.
Thousands of citizens turn to me with feelings of insecurity, we are afraid to walk in the street," he explained at the press conference.
"There is lawlessness, there is no protection, and those who hate us are raising their heads. That is why I am announcing that I intend to demand the position of Minister of Internal Security in the right-wing government. I am doing this after serious consideration, a year and a half of work in the Internal Security Committee, daily discussions, tours throughout the country And significant preparatory work after a large number of inquiries from the police."
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