The war in Ukraine continues and expands, and at the same time the warm relations between Russia and Iran continue to tighten, a fact that causes headaches in Israel.
The Ukrainian pressure on Israel to send Iron Dome systems or other air defense systems, along with other top-of-the-line weapon systems, continues.
Official requests came from the Prime Minister of Ukraine, the Ministers of Foreign Affairs and Defense and the Ambassador in Israel, in talks with their counterparts.
After receiving negative answers, they reacted, as expected, with sharp attacks on Israel, and received support from various parties in Israel and the world who do not correctly read the big picture.
It takes months to train using an advanced weapon.
A Ukrainian soldier on the battlefield, photo: AFP
Iran is sending the Russians weapons systems, currently mainly suicide drones and there is also talk of advanced ballistic missiles, but this is only part of the problem. Iran is also teaching the Russians how to overcome the Western sanctions and how to manipulate the banking systems, and the potential problems, not only for Israel, as a result From the relationship between the countries - even bigger.
While the US must continue to help Ukraine defeat Putin's brutal invasion - Israel should do everything it can to help, but Jerusalem cannot and should not send an Iron Dome or other weapon systems to Ukraine, and should not be expected to do so.
The information may be transferred to Iran
Iron Dome's proven success on the battlefield is outstanding, so it's easy to see why Kyiv would want the system.
Without going into classified, operational and technical details, Iron Dome can do the required work in Ukraine, and anyone who tries to challenge its capabilities to carry out the required defense tasks - as part of the attempt to explain the Israeli refusal - is wrong and misleading.
Israel cannot send Iron Dome or other weapon systems to Ukraine, because of four main reasons.
Below are the reasons, in order of importance.
It is fundamentally different from the order presented in the media, interviews and commentary articles, and is critical to understanding and accepting the Israeli approach:
The main and most important reason is based on the reasonable assumption to the point of certainty, that the systems that will be sent to Ukraine will eventually fall into Russian hands, and will be fully transferred to Iran (even if they will be limited to the Kyiv region, as appears in some claims).
The information about the system, including lessons learned from its operation in the field, will be used by Tehran to develop capabilities to bypass the protection provided by the Iron Dome to Israel, reduce its effectiveness and increase the potential ability of Hezbollah, Hamas and Jihad to harm Israel in future conflicts.
It is impossible to demand that Israel abandon and endanger the central secrets required for its protection.
Humanitarian aid arrives in the city of Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine // Credit: Reuters
The second most important reason is the time required to dramatically increase production capacity.
It is important to understand that in order to carry out the work in Ukraine, many more systems and interceptors will be required, given its size and geography.
The third reason is that even if a decision was made to send systems - it would take a long time (at least months, probably years) to train the Ukrainian forces to use them effectively.
These three reasons are also true for the USA. The weapons systems they are sending (even though they are not first or second tier systems) are expected to fall (and actually fall) into the hands of Iran, along with the Russian lessons from the war against them, including limitations and combat methods. In light of this, it seems clear and justified The American approach that refuses to even consider sending advanced air defense systems, such as Patriot or THAAD. Also, the US also does not have enough advanced air defense systems for its deployed forces.
It seems that the US has overcome the third problem and trained Ukrainian forces to operate their systems.
Only in fourth place, and the least important (although not negligible), is the possible effect on the relations between Israel and Russia, on the decreasing Russian presence in Syria and the danger of the Iranians establishing themselves in their place.
The war indeed caused the withdrawal of Russian forces and their transfer to Ukraine, but what was initially seen as an advantage turns into a concern because of Iran's intentions to enter the created vacuum, and now - with the support of Russia and Syria.
There is also a potential danger of a Russian-Syrian-Iranian threat to Israel's freedom of action, in the implementation of the air defense activities.
Some raised another danger, of a possible change in Putin's attitude towards Jews in Russia - but this is probably not a real danger.
Along with the recommendation to avoid sending Iron Dome and other weapons systems to Ukraine, Israel can certainly provide Kiev with intelligence on Iranian activity, on Iranian drones and on Iranian ballistic missiles, if and when they are sent.
Different demands from Israel and the USA. Biden, photo: AFP
As the Defense Minister suggested, Israel can also provide sensors and an integrated early warning system, which will dramatically improve the defense against drones, rockets and missiles, based on Israeli experience. Israel must continue and even increase humanitarian aid to Ukraine and its citizens.
Let them look in the mirror first
Those who point the finger of blame at Israel for demanding that it send an Iron Dome or other advanced systems to Ukraine should look in the mirror and ask why they are not asking the same from the US. They can demand that the US send Ukraine advanced air defense systems such as Patriot, or drones Attack like a predator.
In my opinion, the US, like Israel, is doing the right thing and is not sending such systems, because of some of the reasons mentioned above. Instead, it is sending less advanced systems, which also still pose a danger once they fall into Iranian hands, but in which there is less of a shortage and the training time to operate them is short relatively.
A final comment is related to the global hypocrisy regarding the Iranian nuclear program: alongside the tightening of warm relations between Iran and Russia, the Iranian regime continues to support terrorist activities all over the world, does not answer the open questions before the IAEA and blatantly violates the nuclear agreement and other treaties to which it is a signatory. Really incomprehensible How the US continues with the horrible absurdity and looks for "creative" ways to renew the nuclear agreement, probably after the mid-term elections.
The time has come to understand the nature of the murderous Islamic regime in Iran - and act against it with all our might.
Brigadier General (Res.) Yaacov Nagel is a senior fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies (FDD), and a visiting professor at the Faculty of Aeronautics and Space at the Technion. He previously served as a national security advisor to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and as the (acting) Chief of Staff for National Security
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