Benjamin Netanyahu was in no hurry to celebrate.
For an experience mod, he understood that it was worth waiting a bit for the picture to clear up.
"This is an evening of huge victory!", he announced with a beaming face on stage last time, only to discover that a few weeks later he had lost power.
His moderate and conciliatory speech, which he delivered this week in the end late at night, was seen as an attempt to moderate his extremist partners.
Perhaps to reassure the fearful losers or the worried international community.
He's just being careful.
He didn't want to deploy grandiose plans only to find out in the morning that Lapid continues to be the transitional prime minister all the way to another election cycle.
The Likud's well-oiled machine functioned properly this time.
For three years, Netanyahu tried to move his voters to the polls, and only this time cracked the path to take control of the target.
The Likud campaign stabbed the target audience like a pin on a map.
Locate the weak points of the previous time and concentrate all resources there.
There is no need for billboards, interviews in the general media, promises and declarations.
Just to bring the supporters to the polls anyway.
With two or three events in the evening at the marked locations, Netanyahu plowed the area day after day.
Wake up those who need to be woken up and put everyone to sleep who likes to keep napping.
until the goal is achieved.
Long before the publication of the samples, Netanyahu realized that the victory was probably in his pocket.
The reports he received from the field, from the Likud and from the rest of the bloc's parties left almost no room for doubt.
The response was tremendous, and the increase in the number of voters was achieved in all regions and all sectors.
Even in arranging the tools on the board before the start of the game, Netanyahu achieved his goals perfectly.
The unification of the right-wing parties was the easy task.
Not so the ultra-orthodox union.
While religious Zionism and Otzma Yehudit, from the moment they were united with his help, began to run without his help, he had to accompany and support the ultra-orthodox parties until the very last moment.
Everyone saw the last event, in which he had to go to Bnei Brak and be interviewed by all the ultra-Orthodox media, including an appeal to the members of the WhatsApp groups and the listeners of the kosher hotline news.
But the dozens of cases in the last months in which he and the people of his office had to intervene, put out fires, sew or unravel as needed, were seen by only a handful of interested parties.
Netanyahu did not apply any means.
He entered every event, big or small, handled it and dismantled it gently or forcefully, until the desired result was obtained.
Two weeks before the elections it became known that Gafni and Deri were in a continuous disconnection.
The headline in "Israel Today" announced that Gafni accuses Deri and his people of being the ones behind various briefings in the media against him, as if he intends to go with the left after the elections if there is no decision.
Only a few knew that Gafni accused Deri, but actually meant Netanyahu.
It turns out that it was Netanyahu's people who made sure to spread constant whispering about Gafni's intentions, so to speak, just to force him to deny it time and time again.
Every time Gafni said in an interview or on some stage a statement that could sound as if his dealings with Netanyahu were not hermetic, his office received a phone call in the hall, usually from Netanyahu's adviser on ultra-Orthodox affairs Zeevi Fleishman, with a demand to clarify his words.
No matter how much Gafni tried to keep room for maneuver, the Likud chairman's people kept closing in on him, until in the days before the elections he had to make it clear with his voice and unequivocally that he and his party were going with Netanyahu, and only with him, whether for the opposition or for another election. The goal was achieved.
shared growth
But Gafni was not in the crosshairs, but Benny Gantz.
In Likud they realized that his running campaign for Prime Minister is going through hints about future cooperation with the ultra-Orthodox.
Every statement by Gafni plays in his favor.
The final clarification by the Chairman of the Torah Flag that there is no such film hurt the state camp campaign the most and left it small and shriveled, and in fact completely prevented the possibility of forming a new government - the scenario of horrors that Netanyahu feared the most. If he doesn't win, at least Shalapid will be the head The transitional government is in another election campaign. A new government is already a movie that you don't know when it will end. It's not every time that the miracle of overthrowing a government happens in just one year.
The stars on the right side lined up this time exactly where needed by an amazing coincidence.
Or in the term of the traditional camp: a miracle.
no less.
Not only did the Likud increase its territory, but the other three parties also managed to increase their strength, without stepping on each other's toes.
Torah Judaism, which only in recent days has faced reports of indifference and complacency in the sector, brought another mandate that it failed to bring for years.
Shas registered a tremendous success, with a campaign that stepped on the most painful warts of the public in the lower deciles and the middle class, and was the only one that dealt with the cost of living and the failed management of the economic crisis. The media dwarfed the issue and dealt with it on the margins. Their cry and outrage at the government's failures in this area - heard Only from the Shas.
rebranding
The same is true in the battle for Jewish identity.
As much as the outgoing government wanted to erase, to the point of obsession, to the point of covering up Merav Michaeli's statements about Tahvaz on Shabbat and the desecration of tefillin by a Meretz activist on election day - the stronger the desire of the tradition lovers to dull their teeth. "S" was the address for that.
Shas registered a tremendous success, with a campaign that stepped on the most painful warts of the public in the lower deciles and the middle class, and was the only one that dealt with the cost of living and the failed management of the economic crisis - while the media exaggerated the issue
When Itamar Ben Gabir started the campaign, when they still did not know if he would or would not be part of the religious Zionist union, he and his people noticed that there was not an iota of public attention to his words.
The media stuck a label on his head, the letter of Cain, and was not ready to deviate from the image it created for him.
The first task of his strategic advisor, Nebo Cohen, was to change this image of an extreme right-wing candidate.
Using his natural qualities, a person who speaks at eye level, who is considered honest and not blunt, he slowly began to move the ship and make everyone listen to what the leader of Otzma Yehudit has to say.
It started on social media and WhatsApp groups, and reached the mainstream media as well.
Ben Gvir renounced the image of the disturbed and racist Kahnist, and built a name for himself as someone who cares about IDF soldiers and personal security, and someone who knows how to deal with terrorists and rioting Arabs.
Among young people and soldiers, Ben Gvir became a popular figure no less than Netanyahu, and the rise was rapid.
From a single digit figure in the polls, religious Zionism jumped to double digits and began to climb.
Despite the fact that Smotrich was at the helm, Ben Gabir became the demonic symbol of the left and the Arab parties, who placed him at the center of their campaign.
Ben Gabir starred not only in the Otzma Yehudit campaign and religious Zionism, but also in Hadash-Ta'al, Meretz, Havoda and the state camp.
His name is everywhere.
And the mandates went on and on.
In the latest polls, religious Zionism reached 15 mandates.
similar to the true results.
The goal - to be the third party and overtake Gantz - was achieved.
Gantz's race for prime minister became ridiculous day by day.
But even after the elections, Ben Gabir understands that the campaign is not over.
Immediately after the publication of the samples, a new campaign began - the one designed to train Otzma Yehudit as a legitimate partner in the government.
The delegitimization, the talk of global discomfort with the appointment and pressures from the US not to establish an "extreme government", and even the calls for a unity government instead of a right-wing government - are going, looking and smelling like a campaign. Therefore, in the coming days, Ben Gabir's people will prepare their way into The government will repel any attempt to create negative buzz against it.
Netanyahu's coalition partners have demands, but presenting them as their control over Netanyahu would be a mistake.
Netanyahu doesn't have a government without them, but they don't really have anywhere to go without him either.
The differences between them are small, and the government, after tough coalition negotiations, has a high survival potential.
Maybe even fill her days.
The last few years have consolidated the right-wing camp and tightened its parts together.
When their opponents are lurking outside, no one will rush to dismantle or threaten.
Such an opportunity, as they received now, can only be repeated in a few years, and in a few more elections.
Naivety to the max
The connection between the components of the outgoing government was impossible when it was established, and became unbearable at the end of its days.
In the craft of delicate thinking in which the coalition was forged, Yair Lapid was the great winner.
The knight on the white horse, who managed to remove Netanyahu from power after many good ones tried, the one who put his personal interest aside for the good of the camp.
Lapid was portrayed as a true leader.
Without ego, who understands the magnitude of the goal and strives for it, without intrigues and personal struggles.
It started even before the formation of the government, already during the previous election campaign.
Lapid did not demand to be the largest party, nor even to be the prime minister.
He received the mandate, but immediately passed it on to Bennett.
He knew that the Knesset might dissolve without the rotation taking place, but the ambition to take down Netanyahu was right in front of his eyes, and he only pursued it.
The prime minister's first mistake, which started a chain of omissions and failed decisions, was that during the government's year of existence, he did not bother to include Gantz in the process, who walked around with a full stomach and a feeling of sourness.
While everyone around him received an upgrade - Prime Minister Bennett, Alternate Prime Minister Lapid, also Michaeli and Horowitz - only he, Gantz, was reduced.
As an alternate prime minister with veto power, he became an ineffective spare wheel.
While all the others scattered cheers in the government meetings, he was wrapped in his seat.
Lapid saw it - and despised it.
The desire for revenge for the split of Blue and White and the alliance with Netanyahu was stronger.
This mistake lurked in the corner for him when the government fell and the Knesset announced elections.
The left bloc stood behind him as one man, except for Gantz.
Another senior official from the coalition joined the latter - Gideon Sa'ar, who refused to accept Lapid's leadership.
Gantz also stole Gadi Eisenkot from under his nose, and filled the country with billboards stating that his ability to form the next government was greater than Lapid's.
When Lapid saw that he was unable to take down Gantz and that his campaign for prime minister was gaining momentum, he realized that his only way to survive was to burn the club down.
His assessment was that the way to a government under his leadership was to fail Gantz.
Lapid realized that with the current data he would not be able to form a new government, but at most to preserve the existing one, as he is the prime minister of the transitional government in another election cycle.
To that end, Yesh Atid must be the largest party and reduce everything else.
Although at the moment they are his own partners, after the elections they may find themselves Gantz's partners.
From here began a series of failures, misjudgments and omissions.
Lapid failed in his attempt to unify Michaeli and Galon, he was wrong when he estimated that vote-buying would not harm them, he fell asleep on guard when Balad broke up the joint venture, and behaved naively when it became clear that the deadline for signing surplus agreements passed without agreements between the Arab parties. While he sees Netanyahu on the other side, he toils and worries , engineers and designs his block as he wishes, stood by the torch and did nothing.
The unit that acted correctly - Galeon, who knew how to shout "Gewald" to the depths of her soul - paid the price for the failures of her partners.
In the exchange of accusations that came immediately after the publication of the results, everyone is right.
Gantz is right because the main person responsible is Lapid.
Lapid is right because Gantz did not accept his punishment.
And now both will have a long time to continue bickering with the opposition.
were we wrong
We will fix it!
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