About a week has passed since the elections and the security establishment is preparing for rapid changes in the office of the Minister of Defense.
Benny Gantz, the outgoing minister, is already holding farewell talks and is preparing to vacate the bureau as soon as possible.
The identity of the next defense minister has not yet been decided, but what is clear is that the next minister faces very complex security challenges, especially under a government that some of its members are not acceptable to the American administration, and some of whom have stated in the past that the conduct of the defense system is not acceptable to them on issues such as the instructions to open fire.
Prepared for the evacuation of the office, Gantz, photo: Gideon Markowitz
The Iranian nuclear.
The first threat that will occupy the next defense minister is of course the Iranian nuclear.
Since Benjamin Netanyahu left the Prime Minister's Office, the American administration of Joe Biden has changed its approach towards Iran, and at the same time as significantly easing the sanctions on Tehran, announced that it intends to sign a renewed nuclear agreement with it as soon as possible.
Netanyahu's replacements, Bennett, Lapid and Defense Minister Gantz, also did not like Biden's approach regarding the nuclear deal, and believed that he had restored the bargaining power to the Iranians precisely at a time when the regime there was beginning to feel the consequences of the sanctions.
Unlike Netanyahu during the Barack Obama administration, the Bennet-Lapid government tried very hard not to take a confrontational approach towards the US in this context.
Try not to take a adversarial approach, photo: Olivier Fitossy/Flash90
The relationship between Israel and the USA is much stronger than the personal relationship between a president and a prime minister, but nevertheless, it seems that the Democrats do not forget Netanyahu's deep friendship with their nemesis, Donald Trump, and the defiant attitude he took towards the previous democratic administration, led by Obama Therefore, it seems that one of the tasks of the next defense minister, whoever he will be, will be to try and create good relations with the democratic administration in a way that might moderate the coolness that might be shown towards Netanyahu.
As a matter of fact, despite Biden's strong desire to sign an agreement with Iran, as of this time the signing is delayed, and the claim is that the ball is in Iran's hands.
At the moment, it seems that neither side has time to deal with this, as Iran is immersed up to its neck in the wave of domestic protest that is sweeping the country in view of the suppression of women's individual rights, while the Americans are busy with the mid-term congressional elections that will be held today.
Iran is immersed up to its neck in the protest wave, a police motorcycle catches fire during the protests in Iran, photo: AP
In Israel, the Iranian progress toward nuclear weapons is viewed with suspicion, and aside from unknown actions attributed to the Mossad, the IDF also accelerated preparations for an attack on Iran's nuclear sites. However, under Netanyahu, Israel neglected its preparations for a possible attack on Iran for years, and only after the change of administration in Washington, when the United States eased up The economic pressure on Iran, which accelerated the nuclear enrichment, the IDF was instructed to take the plans out of the closet and prepare a reliable military option.
The issue of an Israeli attack on Iran will likely be very significant during the term of the next Defense Minister, and it seems that the preoccupation with it has already begun, as in recent days MK Tzachi Hanegbi, a Likud veteran, has been quoted as believing that Netanyahu will pursue an independent attack on the nuclear sites in Iran. In this context, we recall that about a decade ago, only their opposition The determination of all the heads of the security establishment prevented Netanyahu and the then Minister of Defense, Ehud Barak, from sending the IDF to attack Iran.
The Air Force, the IDF, the Mossad and all the bodies entrusted with this are indeed currently working on preparing a military plan for an attack, but sources familiar with the details believe that Israeli capabilities are currently very limited in the face of the dispersion and protection of the nuclear sites throughout Iran, despite the fact that with each passing day the Israeli capabilities Those who are in the details claim in closed conversations that it is very hard to believe that anyone would actually send the IDF on this mission.
He is expected to be the only one who was part of the IDF General Staff, Galant, photo: Amit Shaavi
Those who will have to make the decision regarding Israel's dealings with Iran are indeed the political-security cabinet and the prime minister, but unless there is some political surprise, the cabinet is expected to be composed of people with very little, if any, security experience.
Whether or not Gallant accepts the position of Minister of Defense, he is expected to be the only one who was part of the IDF General Staff.
A new Chief of Staff. Simultaneously with the change of the Minister of Defense, the Chief of Staff is also expected to change in about two months.
The next chief of staff, Major General Herzi Halevi, was appointed by Gantz, and we will just mention that Netanyahu and his associates tried to do everything to delay the announcement of the appointment until after the elections, but were unsuccessful.
Halevi, the head of the Shin Bet and the head of the Mossad may find themselves in a complex reality under a government that some of its members may demand to send the IDF to attack Iran, or state that the IDF should change the opening fire instructions.
the land army.
Indeed, one of the main issues currently preoccupying the IDF is the rampant terrorism in Judea and Samaria. The frequent attacks require the IDF to maintain a fairly large array of forces in the region, a fact that harms the training of the regular army and its preparations for war.
The next defense minister will have to take this into account, especially when the condition of the land army, as we said, is not alarming.
He is expected to be the only one who was part of the IDF General Staff, Herzi Halevi, photo: IDF spokesperson
The issue of the ground army's readiness for war should rank very high on the next defense minister's list of priorities, since as we know, the last time the IDF was immersed in the territories, the Second Lebanon War broke out, and the ground army arrived at it quite rusty. At the moment, the prevailing assessment at the top of the defense establishment is that Hezbollah He is not interested in a confrontation with Israel, but as we know, wars usually break out by surprise, and we have already seen in recent years that Israel and the Hezbollah organization occasionally find themselves close to a confrontation.
Gaza and Syria.
In the list of security challenges facing the new Minister of Defense, it is impossible not to mention the relatively quiet Gaza Strip since last summer's "Operation Dawn" (with the exception of one rocket that was fired at Israel last weekend after the Islamic Jihad operative was killed in Yosh). Also add the Israeli war against Iranian entrenchment in Syria and other areas, and Israel's complex and delicate relations with the Russians, which, despite the war in Ukraine, are still deeply embedded in Syria as well and may threaten Israel's freedom of action in the north.
To all of these must be added no less complex challenges, in the field of military-society relations, such as the decrease in the motivation of the youth to serve in the army and the flight of permanent personnel from the army, which may affect Israel's security in the future no less than any current security threat.
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