Zelensky blames Russia for the missile drop in Poland 1:28
(CNN) --
Accidents aren't usually the way big wars get bigger.
But the threat of savage escalation has loomed large over Russia's clumsy and brutal invasion of Ukraine almost from the start, and Tuesday's missile blast in Poland brought that possibility to the fore.
It now appears that it was not a Russian act, deliberate or not, but probably a Ukrainian attempt to intercept a Russian missile gone wrong.
Ultimately though, it is perhaps a chilling side effect of Ukraine having to fend off wave after wave of Russian missile attacks targeting its population and civilian infrastructure.
Polish army soldiers unload equipment from their trucks, near the site where a missile hit killing two people on a farm in the Polish town of Przewodow, near the border with Ukraine, on Wednesday, November 16, 2022. Credit: Evgeniy Maloletka /AP
Poland renounced invoking NATO Article 4 discussions, in which it would have triggered further consultations on how to defend itself.
But where does this brief moment of panic leave NATO and its role as the main backer and financier of Ukraine's tough and bloody defense of its territory against Russian aggression?
The fact that Poland's President Andrzej Duda has said this was "probably an accident" by Ukraine's air defenses reduces the likelihood of an immediate NATO response at all.
The debris may help support suggestions that the missile came from a Russian-made S-300 air defense system operated by the Ukrainians.
But ultimately, considering this incident an accident is the best outcome for all parties.
It also provides the opportunity for NATO to bolster Ukraine's air defenses, perhaps with systems that cannot accidentally hit its member states.
What happened in Poland with the missile that fell?
Why can he increase tensions with NATO?
Above all, it would have been an unlikely time for Russia to try to escalate into conflict with NATO, the largest military alliance in human history.
Russia is losing to the smaller but better organized Ukrainian military on several fronts.
They are voluntarily withdrawing from the areas they have just falsely declared to be part of Russian territory.
They are sending prisoners and conscripts to the front line and digging up old and rudimentary defenses in the face of a likely harsh winter.
They are in a terrible situation.
Yes, a random attack on Poland would have distracted from the Russian defeat narrative, which has been brought about by its collapse in the key city of Kherson, but it would have been a devastatingly short-sighted move likely to result in further degradation of forces. Russian armies by NATO.
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But we remain in a dangerous place where the proximity of this land war – the biggest in Europe since the 1940s – is written in capital letters for NATO.
Lots of things could go wrong, and the laws of physics suggest that they eventually could.
Poland will likely have to respond to this incident by increasing its air defenses.
Germany has already offered to help patrol its airspace.
Deterrence is a powerful force and something Russia is well aware of, despite its bragging.
But more planes and more air defense missiles in this fever zone only increase the chances of more accidents.
Russian-backed separatists shot down the MH17 civilian plane in an apparent mistake, but that did not make the loss of life acceptable or soften the Western response.
ANALYSIS |
What Russia's departure from the city of Kherson means for the war in Ukraine
Moscow is also in a desperate situation from a strategic point of view.
That may not make them more prone to rash behavior, but it does reduce their public space to de-escalate, apologize, or accept a mistake if it occurs.
Russian President Vladimir Putin was busy on Wednesday talking about the auto industry and avoiding a public explanation of why the Kherson withdrawal was necessary.
But that doesn't mean he doesn't feel the pressure.
With hardliners questioning his conduct of this disastrous war, he has little room internally to back out of a confrontation with NATO, should another mistake or incident start it.
Russian state rhetoric already frames this fight as Moscow's against the entire NATO alliance.
It is more difficult to withdraw from a fight that is said to have already been entered.
So the explosion in Poland is one more sign of the slow escalation of this war.
It may be icy, but these small movements, from threats to nuclear power plants in Ukraine, to the explosion of the Nord Stream gas pipeline, to an explosion that fatally struck a Polish grain factory, erode the sense of what is impossible, and generate a new set of rules.
They make the clock tick more strongly when this war can end, and when Ukraine's supporters will want it to end.
It is clear that Moscow is prepared to endure enormous amounts of pain, defeat and shame before bringing this disastrous campaign to an end.
That pushes away the moment of their defeat or withdrawal and opens up a longer period of time in which more military hardware in dangerous and violent places can lead to more mistakes.
MissilesPoland