Instigator and negligent: the two paths that bring Bolsonaro closer to a conviction after the coup attempt

Bolsonaro, in a hospital in Florida, on January 9.- (AFP)

The long shadow of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, who continues on vacation in Florida, reaches the broken windows of Brasilia.

The level of his participation in the coup movement that on Sunday stormed the headquarters of the three powers will define the future of him and that of Brazil.

The Prosecutor's Office of the Court of Accounts requested on Tuesday that his assets be blocked to pay the reparation for the damage caused in the assault on Congress, the Supreme Court and the presidential palace by his followers.

If the precautionary measure is accepted, it would prevent Bolsonaro's money from going abroad.

Other local politicians have already been cautiously removed.

While the authorities are screening the 1,500 detainees in the insurrection and imprisoning those who carried out the most violent moments, the police and judicial investigations basically follow two lines: to find out who encouraged, financed and organized the landing in the capital of thousands of people arriving from all of Brazil and who did nothing before the evidence that they intended to invade the institutions.

Legal analyzes and specialists consulted indicate that Bolsonaro could be accused on both fronts.

The punishment that, at this moment, is considered more likely is the disqualification to re-present himself in elections.

It would be possible because he is, for the first time in a long time, exposed to justice.

When the ultra-right leader left the Presidency on January 1, he ended almost three decades of immunity.

First as a deputy and then as president, Bolsonaro was protected by a forum that kept him away from the bench.

That is over, and in the opinion of various jurists, the former president will end up linked to the assault on Brasilia in one way or another.

In any case, the absence of deadlines gives judges enormous leeway to play with political timing.

And recent experiences invite caution.

Thiago Bottini, professor of Criminal Law at the Getúlio Vargas Foundation, believes that it is against Bolsonaro that Brazilian law has a very broad concept of the commission of a crime.

“Anyone who helps make the crime happen can be charged.

They are all authors, ”he explains on the phone.

The ex-president of the extreme right may not be sentenced to the same sentence as the one who climbed the ramp of Congress to the braves and broke the police cordon, but accused of the same crime: violent abolition of the democratic rule of law, for example, which he foresees four to eight years in prison.

The constant statements questioning the reliability of the electronic voting system without any proof, the harangues to his followers in inflamed speeches and the hundreds of posts on his social networks already constitute a voluminous body of evidence, considers the jurist Jaqueline Valles.

“Bolsonaro did not go to Brasilia, he did not break anything, but he was a moral participant.

The evidence is his own posts, with that it will be very easy to initiate criminal action.

No matter how much he says that he has nothing to do with it and that he was out of the country, he is an accomplice, it is enough that he encouraged him, ”she comments from São Paulo.

In addition to instigating his followers, Bolsonaro could also be accused of omission, just like the governor of the Federal District, which includes Brasilia, and his secretary of Public Security, both removed from office for not having stopped the march of extremists towards the takeover. congressional.

Although Bolsonaro is not president now, he was when his followers blocked roads in protest of the victory of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and camped peacefully for two months in front of the barracks.

The government turned a blind eye to him and now he could be held accountable for it.

But recent experiences invite some caution before imagining Bolsonaro behind bars.

After his disastrous management of the covid-19 pandemic, the Senate opened an investigation commission that accused him of 11 crimes, including genocide.

He served to wear him down politically, but there were no criminal consequences.

At that time, Bolsonaro was protected by the legal shield of the Presidency and above all by the attorney general, Augusto Aras, whom he chose.

And the dozens of impeachment petitions were stored in the drawer of the president of the Chamber of Deputies.

Now, Bolsonaro, an ordinary citizen, no longer has these valuable allies.

For the jurist Valls, he may not end up in prison, but he does see it as feasible that he will be disqualified.

It would be the intermediate response so as not to inflame half the country (Lula won with 51% compared to Bolsonaro's 49%) and at the same time prevent him from getting away with it.

“It is the closest path, throughout his career, because even today he has returned to incite people against the electoral result (he posted a video in which he once again doubted Lula's victory).

Unfortunately, he is on the path of crime ”.

If a court were to convict him in the second instance, whatever the crime, he would not be able to stand for election within eight years.

The first three to fall were suddenly removed by Supreme Court Judge Alexandre de Moraes, who understood that there was clearly an omission and negligence in not stopping the violent mob.

The first three to fall

Ibaneis Rocha, governor of the DF and an ally of Bolsonaro, called the invaders “terrorists” and apologized to Lula for not having stopped the invasion, but he convinced almost no one.

He will be out of office for at least 90 days.

Anderson Torres, Secretary of Security of the DF and former Minister of Justice of Bolsonaro, was his right hand during his time in the Government.

Torres took office on January 1 and his first decision as secretary was to fire the DF security leadership and go on New Year's vacation to the US He was dismissed and arrested by the police.

From the search of his house, carried out on Tuesday, and from the interrogation when he returns to Brazil, compromising information could emerge for the former president.

Fábio Augusto Vieira, commanding general of the DF Military Police, was also sacked and arrested on Tuesday.

He is accused of the lukewarm performance of the agents on the day of the assault.

The policemen even escorted the radicals so that they arrived safely at the gates of Congress.

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