Negotiations with Vladimir Putin?
Many experts think this is pointless.
An expert suggests addressing confidants – this may already be happening.
Munich – The call for peace negotiations in the Ukraine war has recently become louder, at least in Germany: several large-scale demonstrations and a “peace manifesto” put the topic on the agenda.
That such talks with Vladimir Putin could be crowned with success, there are great doubts, not only at government level.
The Kremlin's war aims seem to be too firmly established and proclaimed too loudly.
The Russian political scientist Yekaterina Schulmann, who is currently living in Germany, recently presented a different variant: Talks could go past the Kremlin boss with contacts in Putin's environment, she explained in an interview with
Zeit Online
.
There are inevitably dissatisfied people even in the closest circle of the Kremlin.
In fact, such efforts may already be underway.
At least that's what Andriy Tschernak, representative of the secret service directorate in the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, claimed in a conversation with the Greek newspaper Iefimerida
that has so far received little international attention
.
He left open how concrete talks about a possible end of the war have progressed - but emphasized that there are prominent opponents of the Ukraine invasion in Putin's circle.
Ukraine with contacts in Putin's closest circle?
"If he loses power, they will exterminate him"
"In the war we use all the means that the law allows us," Tschernak told the media in mid-February: "We have also found mechanisms for cooperation with people who are very close to Putin." "known as supporters of 'Great Russia'".
They are neither on friendly terms with Ukraine, nor do they generally detest war.
Nevertheless, there are connecting points.
"In short, it's about this particular war," the ministry official explained.
A revolution – such as that demanded by the ex-oligarch Mikhail Khodorkovsky – is not immediately in prospect as a result of the cooperation.
But that could change.
“At this point, they are not ready to take revolutionary action.
If he loses power, they will exterminate him," Chernak said.
Leonid Volkov, a confidante of Navalny, put forward a similar thesis last year.
In my view, it would make a lot more sense to negotiate with your inner circle.
With whomever this is possible.
The Russian exile scientist Ekaterina Schulmann in an interview with Zeit Online
Schulmann suspected that there was generally little enthusiasm for the Ukraine war in the Kremlin.
The people around Putin "usually only played along because that's how you keep your position in an autocracy," she told
Zeit Online
.
“I would look for people who are as close to him as possible.
They can be ideologically similar, but still hate each other,” she explained – almost describing the scenario described by Chernak.
Ukraine negotiations without Putin?
"War harms the regime and the elite"
But why should a conversation with Putin's confidants be promising?
Tschernak and Schulmann argued unanimously on this question.
“After the invasion of Ukraine, some people began to lose money and influence quickly.
They don't like that," said Tschernak.
"It's a calculation that keeps these people busy around the clock," said Schulmann. "Am I benefiting from how things are going?
Which is more risky - to distance yourself or to continue?" Unlike Putin, these people are "not so invested in this war.
On the contrary: the war harms the regime and the elite.”
Reports of dissatisfaction in the Russian leadership have repeatedly been read in recent months.
The Washington Post,
for example, reported
shortly before the turn of the year, citing a "Russian billionaire", that there was "huge frustration" in Putin's circle.
The reason: the President obviously has no strategy for the further course of the war.
At the time, Putin had just had his annual press conference postponed.
However, the signals are contradictory: In the fall, the Reuters agency learned from Western government and intelligence circles that Putin was still firmly in the saddle.
Russia in the Ukraine war: Europe as a "zone of influence" - "Putin will not stop"
At the same time, Tschernak warned that Putin's Russia was investing large resources in influencing the West in the media - for example with mouthpieces such as "Russia Today", but also with paid contacts in editorial offices.
The Kremlin is also keeping an eye on the Ukrainian secret services.
A current goal is to interrupt the supply of weapons for Ukraine, for example through traffic accidents or sabotage.
However, Putin is not only interested in Ukraine, but in "all of Europe as a zone of influence".
"If he conquers Ukraine, he will not stop, he will go further," said Chernak
Iefimerida
.
The EU is at least firmly assuming that the Kremlin wants to decisively influence opinion in the West, as its foreign affairs representative Josep Borrell recently emphasized in a speech.
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List of rubrics: © IMAGO/Mikhail Metzel