Rafael Nadal facing the danger of losing a record streak: leaving the top 10 after almost 18 years

Rafael Nadal

entered the top 10 of the world ranking for the first time on April 25, 2005. One day after having won the first of his 12 ATP titles in

(and the fifth trophy of his career) with a victory in the final against his compatriot

, an 18-year-old

appeared in seventh place in the ATP ranking.

And he never again left that elite group, in which he has spent 910 uninterrupted weeks.

But, with the Spaniard away from the courts since mid-January, that streak, the second longest in tennis history, could come to an end next Monday if there are a series of results in the Dubai and Acapulco tournaments.

The Spaniard is today in the process of recovering from the iliopsoas muscle injury in his left leg, which he suffered in the second round match of the Australian

that he lost to the American

.

That physical problem prevented him from defending his title in Melbourne and also the one he had won last year in Acapulco (and will also sideline him from Indian Wells).

The bleeding of points caused by his inactivity made him fall from the second step of the ranking, in which he started 2023, to eighth, his worst position since the beginning of 2017. And there are three players who could surpass him with good performances this week and take him out from the top ten lot, after almost 18 years:

,

and

.

For that to happen, three situations must occur: Auger Aliassime, who is ninth with 70 points less than Nadal (3,245 against 3,315), has to reach the quarterfinals in

;

Hurkacz, 11th at 250 from the Spanish, being a finalist in that same tournament;

and Rune, tenth to 154, reaching the semifinals in

.

Nadal and his first trophy in Barcelona, ​​which allowed him to break into the top 10 for the first time. Photo REUTER

in his debut 7-6 (7-4), 3-6, 6-3

and will achieve that requirement if he beats Italian

(67th) in the round of 16.

).

Rune, also the fourth favorite in Mexico, needed three sets to beat another American in the first round,

, a guest of the organization, 6-7 (7-9), 6-4, 6-2.

The biggest obstacle that appeared on the horizon on his way to the semifinals was 

, 12th in the world and recent champion in

, but the British decided to withdraw from the tournament, tired after two intense weeks on the dust tour of brick (he was also a finalist in Buenos Aires).

Hurkacz's chances of reaching the final in Dubai are more difficult.

The Pole made his debut by beating the Russian

(lucky loser) on Tuesday, but he would have to overcome difficult rivals, such as the Serbian

, top seed, and the Russian

, third, to reach the decisive stage.

If the Canadian, the Dane and the Pole meet these conditions, they would surpass Nadal and drop him from the top 10. The Spaniard would then leave his record for staying in that group in 910 consecutive weeks, which will not be in danger.

Because

comfortably commands that statistic on the

circuit , escorted by fourth retired players.

' 788 weeks

;

's 734

;

fourth is

, with 619;

and fifth,

with 565.

Nadal was injured in his second round match in Australia and has not played since January.

Photo MANAN VATSYAYANA / AFP

Novak Djokovic

, who seems destined to break all the records in the racket world (he is already the tennis player who spent the longest time at the top of the ranking and one of those who won the most Grand Slams -22, the same as Nadal, for example), He is sixth on that list with a record much lower than that of the Mallorcan: "barely" 555 weeks, between March 2007 and October 2017.

The absolute record is held by Czech-American

, winner of 18 Grand Slams, who spent 1,000 weeks in the top ten of the WTA singles rankings

November 3, 1975, and December 26, 1994.

Doubts about the return

If Nadal's streak in the top 10 survives this week, there is still a good chance it will come to an end in the coming weeks.

Because after a complicated start to the season due to that left leg injury, the Spaniard's return to the circuit has not yet been confirmed.

And although the initial deadline predicted a return at the

, Rafa confirmed on Tuesday that

He will not play that contest, which will begin next Wednesday, nor the one in

, from Wednesday the 22nd. 

The Spaniard - who due to this physical problem also missed the tournaments in Doha and Dubai and resigned from the exhibition he planned to play with

in Las Vegas on Sunday - seems to be aiming with everything for the European tour of slow courts.

On Monday, images showing him training on clay were released on social media.

His first commitment would then be 

, a tournament that he won eleven times and that always helps him refine his game for

,

and

.

Thus, on March 20, he will lose the 600 points he had to defend in Indian Wells, where he was a finalist last year, and which are the only ones he will put into play from now until the start of the tournament in the Monegasque capital.

Auger Aliassime, meanwhile, will have to revalidate only 20 in the same period (10 from Indian Wells and 10 from Miami);

Hurkacz, 270 (90 from the Californian Masters and 180 from the Florida one);

and Rune, just 41 that he added in the first of those tournaments.

The three will have chances to feed their crops, overcome the Mallorcan's line and end his long stay in the top 10.

What would that fall in the ranking imply?

That he would not be among the top favorites in the dust tournaments in Europe, so he would not be released in the first rounds and would have more chances of coming across tougher rivals in the initial stages.

In any case, if he arrives physically well, he could recover ground in that section of the season (the Mallorcan's favorite), since last year he did not play Monte Carlo, he lost in the quarterfinals in Madrid and in the round of 16 in Rome. 

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