Has Wagner boss Prigozhin been written off?
Allegedly, the Russian military wants to set up groups of mercenaries that are easier to control.
Munich – At the beginning of the week, Yevgeny Prigozhin once again sent a video out into the world.
To see him, boasting, with a Russian flag in his hands.
The hard-fought Ukrainian city of Bakhmut was "legally" conquered, Prigozhin said somewhat cryptically.
"This is the private military company Wagner, these are the guys who took Bachmut."
It was the latest of many alleged breakthroughs at Bachmut, one incidentally to which the Department of Defense has not yet commented.
That's not surprising, because the relationship between the regular army and the mercenary group is deeply broken.
The dispute is not least about who is responsible for successes and failures in Ukraine.
That's why Prigozhin's little Wagner ad break was deliberate.
Does the Kremlin feel threatened by Prigozhin?
Moscow is probably planning its own mercenary group
One can doubt that it is of use to him.
Because if you believe the usually well-informed British Ministry of Defense, then Russia's military leadership is working to build up Wagner competitors.
Ultimately, it is about replacing the notorious and influential mercenary group "in their important combat role in Ukraine," said London on Tuesday.
The military simply wanted to create a group that was easier to control.
In fact, in the past, Prigozhin was often noticed as an unpredictable character.
He repeatedly publicly criticized the military leadership and its strategy, including Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.
The ministry reacted with minor harassment, for example forbidding Prigozhin from enlisting more prisoners for his army and probably being stingy with supplies of ammunition.
Prigozhin, in turn, called this "treason" and threatened to withdraw his fighters.
Most recently, the 61-year-old moderated his tone somewhat and even found cautious words of praise for Russia's military.
The US think tank “Institute for the Study of War” concluded that this reflects the fear of losing things completely with Moscow and losing the mercenary group entirely in the battle for Bakhmut.
Putin dependent on Prigozhin – according to British assessments it is difficult to do without Wagner
The Kremlin probably doesn't want to take on Prigozhin's cross-shots any longer than necessary. It is said that it has also fallen out of favor with its old friend Vladimir Putin.
A complete renunciation of Wagner should be difficult.
According to reports from London, no other mercenary army can currently match Wagner's "size and fighting strength".
That applies to Ukraine, but also to all those parts of the world where the fighters are active, especially in Africa.
There they have been increasing Russia's influence for a long time.
Prigozhin rejected rumors that Wagner wanted to focus on Africa instead of Ukraine in the future.
Wagner is considered merciless, even towards his own people.
They are said to have been used by the thousands as cannon fodder in the battle for Bakhmut, mainly former prisoners whom Prigozhin recruited with the promise that they would be free after their combat mission.
At the end of March, he also boasted that he had released 5,000 ex-prisoners and "educated" them.
Recently, however, a case became public that proves the opposite: a convicted murderer, recruited by Wagner and pardoned after his deployment in Ukraine, murdered a pensioner shortly after returning home.
Moscow may have problems with Prigozhin and his troops, but in principle they like the use of mercenaries.
They are better paid and, from the Kremlin's point of view, are more effective than regular troops.
Also, their losses would be more tolerated in Russia.
