By Dan DeLuce -
NBC News
US officials believe classified US-owned documents about the war in Ukraine that surfaced online are possibly real and the result of a leak, but some of them may have been doctored before publication, a government source said Saturday. .
The official said that this is the "theory" of the government, pending investigation and review.
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The documents, posted in recent days on Twitter and Telegram,
describe Ukraine's military strength, the status of the conflict with Russia, casualty numbers
and how much the HIMARS long-range rocket systems that the United States delivered to Kiev have been used.
Some of the documents are dated March 1.
A Ukrainian sniper, belonging to the 28th.
Brigade, advances through a trench on the outskirts of Bakhmut, Ukraine, on March 5, 2023.Getty Images / Getty Images
"We are aware of the reports about the social media postings and the Department is reviewing the matter," Sabrina Singh, a Pentagon spokeswoman, said Friday.
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The Justice Department has launched its own investigation, a spokesperson said Friday.
"We have been in communication with the Department of Defense on this matter and have launched an investigation," he said.
"We have no further comment."
What is exposed in the documents?
The documents appear to reveal what the United States has learned through intelligence methods
-- interception of electronic communications -- about Russia's plans and operations.
A former intelligence official said there could be serious consequences if a channel of "intelligence signals" about Russia has been exposed.
The New York Times was the first news outlet to report on the documents.
It is not known who may be responsible for the leak.
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Following the reports of the leak, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and top officials from the armed forces and security services discussed ways to prevent the leak of military information during a meeting on Friday.
According to a researcher at Bellingcat, an online research group, the documents first appeared on the anonymous image page 4chan in March.
Doubts about authenticity
Different versions of the documents, which have appeared online since then,
cite varying numbers of casualties among Russian troops in the war
.
The differing numbers, and the fact that they are well below estimates by independent military analysts and the Pentagon, have fueled speculation that the documents were doctored.
A Ukrainian soldier fires an artillery piece near the front line in the Bakhmut region of Ukraine on April 2, 2023.Getty Images
In one version, the number of Russian soldiers killed in action is 16,000 to 17,500, compared with an alleged 71,500 Ukrainian soldiers killed.
Army Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, said in November that about 100,000 Russian soldiers had been killed or wounded in the war so far, and that Ukraine had probably suffered a similar number of casualties.
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The documents, including maps and equipment list, appear to have been folded and then flattened.
John Sullivan, the former US ambassador to Russia and former deputy secretary of state, told NBC News on Friday that the documents had to be accepted with caution.
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"There are indications that [...] there are aspects of the document that may be authentic, but
there are indications that this may be a Russian disinformation campaign
, which they are very good at," Sullivan said.
Coverage of the documents in Russian state media has been "extremely quiet," said Bret Schafer, a professor at Germany's Marshall Fund Alliance for Democracy Security.
"Almost all of [the coverage] has cited reports from others to stay as far back as possible."
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Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to President Zelenskyy, said in a Telegram post that the documents were a "hoax" by Russia and that if Moscow had access to secret information, it would not announce it and jeopardize that intelligence source.
A destroyed Russian war tank in the town of Svyatogirsk, in the Donetsk region, Ukraine, on the 1st.
March 2023.Getty Images
"If you have a working channel to receive intelligence from the Pentagon, you're not going to destroy it for a day's worth of news. If you have information about the enemy's level of support and military plans, you're going to pretend you don't have it." "Podolyak said.
"If you try to pretend you know something, then you don't know anything. This is a hoax, dust in the eyes."
The alleged leak comes amid high expectations of a Ukrainian counter-offensive as winter passes.
"Regarding the actual plans for a counteroffensive, the Russian troops will certainly be the first to know about it. I assume it will happen very soon," Podolyak said.
