How to avoid a war with China

In the summer of 1914, few wanted war or thought that a major war was possible.

My grandparents were married that spring in Lviv, Austria-Hungary, and looking at the photos of their whirlwind wedding I realize they

that a cataclysm would soon wipe out their country, shatter their lives, and ultimately send a branch of the family to flee to the New World.

A rescue helicopter flies during a Min-An drill, or emergency response drill, in the city of Taichung, Taiwan, on April 13, 2023. EFE//RITCHIE B. TONGOT:

This year I sometimes worry that we are once again becoming

about the risks of conflict that lie ahead.

And perhaps the worst

in the next decade or two will be a war with China.

Although neither side wants war, all now accept that conflict may be looming and are preparing accordingly, raising suspicions on the other side and fueling an

It is time for both sides to take a deep breath and put aside the rhetoric and token jabs that encourage nationalists at home but also increase the risk of global catastrophe.

A reminder of the risks came Monday, when China responded to the warm US welcome given to Taiwan's president by sending a

near Taiwan.

"Things that are done publicly, symbolically, to stand up to Beijing don't necessarily make Taiwan more secure," said Jessica Chen Weiss of Cornell University.

effects

For example, former House Speaker

traveled to Taiwan last year as a symbolic show of support.

Taiwanese polls found by a 2-1 majority that Pelosi's visit made them feel

If we want to help Taiwan, Weiss said, we need

and less provocation.

In my view, the conflict risks are primarily led by

, from his brutal crackdown in Xinjiang to the massive expansion of his nuclear arsenal that is underway, and tensions will be further exacerbated if he supplies Russia with artillery shells.

But US domestic policy is also heading on a

course , and that may get worse as Democrats and Republicans race to denounce China.

From the American point of view, another cold war may not seem so terrible, since we and the Russians managed to avoid incinerating each other in the last one.

But in the last cold war, millions of people died in proxy war zones, from Vietnam to Angola.

And Russia and the United States avoided nuclear war in part because the leaders of each side had memories of

that made them wary.

I worry that today, as in 1914,

and myopic political pressures from each side could fuel continued escalation.

I don't need to be reminded how oppressive China can be.

Square

in June 1989 and witnessed the People's Liberation Army firing into the crowd I was in.

But I also saw China lift more people out of poverty than any other country in history and vastly improve outcomes in education and health.

We in the United States have to face the uncomfortable reality that a newborn in Beijing may not be able to aspire to a meaningful vote or free speech, but has a life expectancy seven years longer than that of a

. in Washington, D.C.

When I say we need to talk to each other, I'm not downplaying American concerns.

I count myself among those who

because of the risk of it being used for spying.

But I also know that the United States has similarly used private companies to spy on China.

When China bought a new Boeing 767 in 2000 to be the Chinese equivalent of Air Force One, US officials attached at least

to it .

I think the United States should put more pressure on China on some issues, like the reckless way Chinese companies export chemicals that turn into fentanyl to Mexico.

That Chinese-sourced fentanyl kills many thousands of Americans every year, and it's hard to understand why the deaths of so many people aren't higher on the bilateral agenda.

But we also need humility.

US politicians, drug companies and regulators have made a catastrophic botch job with the opioid crisis.

Why should we expect Chinese leaders to care more about the lives of young Americans than our own leaders?

The strikeout is not a policy, and it alienates ordinary Chinese citizens who are that country's best hope after Xi has left the scene.

That's the

Anti-Chinese rhetoric and exaggerated security concerns magnify racism toward Asian Americans and make the Chinese feel unwelcome in the United States, and that hurts us all.

In 2020, 17% of US doctorates awarded in science and engineering went to Chinese students, underscoring that the US has been a

of the brain drain from China.

But this could change.

A survey has revealed

among Chinese academics in the United States: 61% say they have thought about

's actions

to bolster American industry and his remarkable efforts to increase military readiness in the Western Pacific.

But let's recognize that the most important step we can take to strengthen America against China has nothing to do with the military.

It would simply be addressing America's dysfunction - from addiction to childhood poverty and our failing foster care system - and investing in our education system to produce stronger citizens and a more robust nation.

That is the lesson we must learn from China, not picky nationalism, and the best way to meet the Chinese challenge.

c.2023 The New York Times Company

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