What at one time was considered a marginal, almost bizarre phenomenon, has now become central to Argentine politics.
Officials, economists and experts who follow the ups and downs of our country from the United States observe with
perplexity and concern the progress in Javier Milei's polls and cannot help but compare him with Donald Trump,
who began his run for the White House as an eccentric and he ended up in the presidency against what the establishment expected.
Today, as the frontrunner for the Republican Party for 2024, he remains in the center of the political ring.
As
Clarín learned,
the
figure of the libertarian economist usually flies over the private talks between Argentine and US officials
who are interested in our country.
Of course they talk about the candidates of Together for Change and the ups and downs of the Frente de Todos.
But more and more they are asked about “
Little Trump”
or “Little Bolsonaro” and what their positions are because in Washington – beyond the stridency of their rhetoric – they are not very clear.
Meanwhile, in the corridors of the International Monetary Fund,
technicians are speechless
at the possibility of having to deal with someone who promotes, for example, closing the Central Bank and says that "the IMF should not exist."
The libertarian leader himself endorses the Trumpist mirror in which he likes to reflect himself.
"My alignment with Trump and Bolsonaro is almost natural,"
he said in an interview with the OGlobo newspaper, explaining that all those who are against the political currents of the left "are on the side I am on."
And he does not hesitate to praise the former president: “For Argentine politicians, Trump is a heresy because he lowers taxes, makes the economy grow and lowers the fiscal deficit.
Trump
shows them that they are useless
and that all they do is screw up our lives ”, he affirms.
What do the Argentine and the American have in common, beyond their incendiary rhetoric? How do they see Milei in the United States today?
Donald James Trump
was born into a millionaire family and
Javier Gerardo Milei
had a good time as the son of a transport businessman.
The Argentine studied economics and dedicated himself to consulting, academia and private activity, while the American studied business and expanded the family construction company to become a real estate empire, although with some tax violations that the courts are investigating.
Both made their long hair a seal of identity.
Trump spends hours with his hairdresser to style his orange hair so it doesn't show baldness, while Milei has a messy rocker look that shows him off as irreverent.
They both love the media
and their image has grown in tandem with television.
Spicy, controversial, always ready to fight, the
ratings adore them and it was the springboard for the leap into politics.
At the start of the 2016 election campaign, Trump was running against 16 Republican candidates.
He was accused of being a clown, of being crazy, of being an impromptu
reality show
star with an untimely character incapable of leading the first power.
But he demolished his internal rivals one by one and later managed to defeat Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Trump's message was to "
drain the swamp"
in Washington and
"make America great again
. "
Milei's is similar:
"Demolish the caste" and "rebuild Argentina and emerge from the rubble to become a power again"
.
As Trump did, who disqualified his adversaries with nicknames such as "Bush the weak" or "Joe the sleepy", the Argentine calls his rivals "Together for the Office" or the "Front of Jets".
Both emerged as “outsiders”,
people outside the traditional system, the result of the economic crises and the discontent of frustration with the political class that had left many people outside the country (in the US) and throughout the country. width of Argentina.
They offer hope to millions of forgotten people.
Although he does not develop them too much, the ideas of the leader of "Freedom Advances"
are more similar to those of the small Libertarian Party in the US
--minimum economic intervention from the State, total deregulation and drastic tax reductions- and not so much those of the Republican Party, which is more religious and socially conservative.
Paradoxically, unlike the libertarians here, Milei is against abortion.
No one here is talking about closing the Federal Reserve.
One important difference:
Trump ultimately used the structure of the Republican Party to get to the White House, while Milei does not have that scaffolding.
"Milei wants to use the example of Trump to try to come to power,"
said Argentine F
ederico Finchelstein,
head of the Department of History at the New School for Social Research in New York and an expert on populism.
“They have many things in common: a very authoritarian and intolerant outlook, they use lies and propaganda to levels that perhaps other politicians do not.
We are talking about people who believe her and feel like they know about topics where she shows that they really don't know anything.
On the other hand, there are intolerant sectors that also support them”.
The expert points out that “Milei and Trump are part of the same phenomenon that is
the most authoritarian variant of populism.
Populism is anti-political and paradoxically this type of character always presents the other as not belonging to the people or to a healthy way of doing politics.
The other is always presented in an apocalyptic and demonizing way.
It is the idea of the caste”.
Finchelstein affirms that “Trump and other populisms agree that they occur
in the midst of a serious crisis of representation,
when people feel frustrated with politicians who do not solve their problems.
In these cases, these sorcerers appear who present magical solutions and assure that they are going to solve the problems and that they are the ones who represent what the people want”.
And he adds: "It is easier to lie and make totalitarian propaganda than to explain solutions that have their complexity and that accept the difficulties of things."
For
Benjamín Gedan,
director of the Latin America Department of the Wilson Center and founder of the Argentina Project,
"it is dangerous to underestimate the chances that Milei will win
."
He adds that “it is still early to pay too much attention here to the elections in Argentina.
And for many in Washington the competition between Horacio Rodríguez Larreta and Patricia Bullrich is more relevant, because it still looks like the traditional opposition will win.
But it can change quickly when people realize Milei's growing power."
According to the analyst, “Trump and Milei are more focused on rejecting traditional politics than developing their own proposal.
Because I have neither a party nor a political background, this carries a high level of uncertainty
”.
And he adds: “It may be that some of Milei's criticisms of the establishment are correct and that he has found some reasonable remedies.
But his lack of experience would create a lot of uncertainty and his combative style would guarantee permanent and brutal political fights.
Daniel Kerner,
director of Latin America at Eurasia Group, said that “until now Argentina had been exempt from the wave of discontent and outsiders, and it seems that no longer.
The interest in Milei in Washington is starting to grow, and it will be even greater if she does well in the PASS”.
From the perspective of investors, the expert adds that “Milei is the great unknown of the election.
Not much is known about what she thinks, nor how she would do what she says.
If she insists on her proposals, and she does well in the STEP, she will aggravate the economic situation even more, further depressing interest in the country.
The vision will depend on what she says.
Today her proposals seem inapplicable ”.
On how Milei's ideas are seen in the US, he points out that “among reasonable and informed people the idea of dollarization and the elimination of the Central Bank
seems crazy.
But neither is there much clarity about the feasibility of the other proposals.
I imagine that some may agree, but much more detail will be needed.
I don't think either the IMF or the Treasury are comfortable with those ideas."
Finchelstein wonders: “How many Milei voters actually thought about destroying the Central Bank or selling organs?
They are delusions.
In no academic field or where politics is thought seriously, these types of programs are presented ”, she points out.
Gedan points out that “Argentina has been stagnant for more than a decade and it is understandable that many voters are open to non-traditional alternatives.
But Milei's choice would be to step into the unknown, with potentially serious consequences.
Despite all its economic challenges, Argentina has preserved its institutionality, including the rule of law and the system of checks and balances.
Why risk it just in the year when the country celebrates 40 years of uninterrupted democracy?
Meanwhile, the libertarian is advancing in the polls and would even have a chance of sneaking into the second round.
In the US, Trump is consolidating as the favorite of the Republicans.
Some speculate with a photo between the two.
When the Argentine was asked about a possible meeting, Milei replied: “I have an affinity with the Republican party and it is clear that there is the possibility of having contact with former President Trump.
It would make a great photo.
With our long hair, I have no doubt”.
Washington. Correspondent