Wall Street sees Kirchnerism as third, which bets on Javier Milei and may lose

During the week of April 10, Washington hosted the Spring Meeting of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund;

there, world economic prospects and the effectiveness of aid are discussed.

Key results for decision-making by governments, but also by investors.

While both organizations pointed out, in the Argentine chapter, that growth for this year would be zero and they corrected their inflation forecast, taking it from 60 to 88% -despite the fact that the consultants already predict 120%-, simultaneously dozens

An Argentine economist who works in the private sector held

, and there was something that caught his attention.

In about twenty of those talks, they not only consulted him about Javier Milei, but there was a question that was repeated:

Winter meeting of the IMF and the World Bank Group in Washington.

Photo: Samuel Corum/Bloomberg

Ergo, concern on Wall Street about Milei's rise, which seems to be consolidating around 20% in all polls, is growing.

These are investment funds that also believe that the government can control the inflationary spiral, predict that in August it could run out of reserves and consider that a devaluation is inevitable.

But beyond the doomsayers,

Some of that concern was evident, on a small scale, in the recent exhibitions of the libertarian in the Rural and in the Llao Llao.

There, he did not convince the businessmen of his dollarization project, nor did he explain how he would govern if he were President, with a national Congress against it because he could not gain a majority in the Chamber of Deputies, much less in the Senate.

“If I am President I will dollarize the economy.

I promise to that.

And if the political caste doesn't let me do it,

.

Let's see what people say

, "she launched days ago.

Appealing to the term "nonsense" that Milei himself used some time ago in Salta to insult a journalist's question, he could not govern that way.

In accordance with the Constitution, the Executive Power can call a referendum by decree, only when Congress has not dealt with a bill by popular initiative procedure within 12 months that has more than 15% of the votes of the total of the register.

But to carry out a popular consultation or binding plebiscite, the call must be made by Congress.

And if a force like Libertad Avanza does not have a majority -as it surely will not-, it will be impossible unless it agrees with "the caste", call it Together for Change or Peronism.

Javier Milei, in the premises of the Chamber of Deputies.

Photo: Juano Tesone

The only thing that a President Milei could do would be

, the result of which does not oblige Congress to comply with that initiative, for example, dollarization.

Seeking to answer the investment funds' question about who Peronism/Kirchnerism would vote for if the run-off were between Horacio Rodríguez Larreta or Patricia Bullrich, versus Milei, it is clear that today the Frente de Todos believes - delusionally? - that the libertarian it only takes votes from Together for Change and can be

for the survival of Kirchnerism.

As background, in the City, in the 2021 legislative elections, Milei stole votes from the PRO in Recoleta, Palermo and Nuñez, and from Kirchnerism in Villa Lugano and Mataderos.

“When you take it to the national level, Milei is the only leader who a year and a half ago measured 5 or 6 points and now 20. At first those 5 were the libertarians who came out of the closet.

It was the first Milei, a problem for Together for Change.

Now,

from La Matanza, Morón, Avellaneda.

And it ends up being almost marginal who gets the most votes

, ”explains Juan Germano from the consultancy Isonomía, one of the leaders in electoral campaigns.

Germano agrees that today the crack is around Milei.

Many of his followers are not identified with some of his proposals such as eliminating free public education.

says Germano, referring to the weariness of some segments of society.

In Together for Change, what happens to Milei is overly analyzed if the candidate is finally Larreta or Bullrich.

“In the lab, Bullrich may be thought to be better at slowing down Milei's growth.

But it is very difficult to know what the voter will be, not in November in a ballot, but on June 24 when the lists close, or on August 13 at night after PASO.

It is very difficult to know what the social reading is.

Because the Larreta that arrives in November, if he wins the PASO, he will come with Macri and Patricia inside, "

says Germano. And the other thing is Kirchnerism if he comes third. His militants, are they more refractory to Larreta, Bullrich or Miley?

Patricia Bullrich.

Photo: Erica Canepa/Bloomberg

In Bullrich's environment, they maintain that

have her as plan B. These studies also showed that the

must be young and with a professional profile, an economist maybe.

Obviously for the deputy, if she is also radical, the better, to consolidate the alliance with that space.

Rodrigo di Loredo or Manuel Passaglia could well respond to that profile. Just in case, they also

, for example, Bullrich-María Eugenia Vidal, but the results were not optimal.

In larretism they prefer to speculate on the figure of Milei, and limit themselves to pointing out,

Until now,

while she gets votes for Together for Change, despite denying the 30,000 disappeared;

she affirms that there was no State terrorism but a war between the State and terrorism;

she leads as a candidate in Tucumán Ricardo Bussi, son of the dictator Antonio Bussi and who claims his father;

she wants to eliminate free public education;

and hates the state.

If Mauricio Macri was “the dictatorship” for Christianity,

Greetings from Cristina Kirchner to the deaf community that gave her a blue handkerchief.

In 2002, France held presidential elections.

Very fragmented, President Jacques Chirac, the center-right leader, barely obtained 19.88% of the votes and the second place of the far-right leader Jean Marie Le Pen surprised the world with 16.86%.

Both went to the ballot and there most of the rest of the parties, including the center-left and the left despite being at the antipodes, opted for Chirac, who won 82.2% compared to 17.8% for Le Pen.

A Reuter study that ended in December 2022 with surveys around the world, showed which are

, due to the perception of citizens that their situation is disastrous, not because of criticism. towards the media.

with everything that was experienced post Trump;

after the management of Jair Bolsonaro;

the

after the consequences of the Boris Johnson administration;

with the institutional rupture after the alliance of Socialism with Podemos;

and Argentina.

look also

Tense nights in Olivos, alarm in Cristina Kirchner and the plan that made Sergio Massa so nervous

look also

Massa is left alone on the grid but it does not start and the trick of giving up what cannot be