The episode of heat that affects all of Spain this week is hardly unprecedented.
In the last 50 years, temperatures never exceeded 38º in April: that mark was registered on the 3rd of this month in 1980 at the Fuerteventura airport.
Between Thursday and Saturday of this week, in more than 200 municipalities this level will be equaled or exceeded, according to EL PAÍS' analysis of forecast data from the State Meteorological Agency (Aemet).
These extraordinary temperatures for this time of year will affect the majority of Spaniards.
In at least 28 provincial capitals, where more than 8 million people live, the thermometers will break their records for the month of April.
The following graph shows the data from the four capitals where the expected maximums will exceed the maximum temperature ever recorded for the month of April by more than 4 degrees.
Maximums in April of each year and forecast of the maximums of the next days
Source: Aemet and own elaboration.
Granada is the capital where the forecasts are farthest from the all-time highs.
Until now, in the month of April, the mercury had only risen to 31.25º, at the beginning of the month in 2011. Next Friday 37 degrees are forecast, six more.
In Jaén 37 degrees will be reached next Friday, 5 more than those registered in April 1985. In Albacete the previous maximum, from 1977, will also be beaten by 5 degrees, with temperatures of up to 36º.
Even a city like Palencia, where the previous maximum did not reach 27º, will exceed 30º this Friday.
The agency's forecasts also indicate that in another 11 provincial capitals the historical maximum for this month will be exceeded by more than two degrees.
The cities in the graph below are ordered by how extraordinary the temperatures will be on these days.
For example, in Lleida 35ºC will be registered (2 more than the previous maximum), but the situation in Cuenca stands out more, which despite marking a lower temperature, 32ºC, will exceed its previous maximum for a month of April by 3 degrees.
In Soria, Burgos or Valladolid, 30 degrees had never been reached in April, something that is expected to happen between Friday and Saturday.
In Córdoba they will reach 37º —the maximum for a provincial capital, along with Granada and Jaén— according to the latest forecast from Aemet, which came to foresee maximum temperatures of up to 39º there.
Record temperatures will also be recorded in 13 other provincial capitals, but more similar to the months of April of other particularly hot years: these are the cases of Zaragoza or Madrid, where there will be 1.5 degrees more than the historical maximum.
Although here the differences are less high, the temperatures of these days are among the highest registered in April.
Such important anomalies will not be registered in the rest of the country's provincial capitals.
In 24 of these cities, the maximum temperatures will not break any record, although some will be very close to doing so.
Vitoria or Salamanca will be less than half a degree from those registered by both at the beginning of April 2011.
On the Cantabrian coast, A Coruña and the Canary Islands, the situation will be calmer and its maximums will be far from other episodes of heat.
In A Coruña, for example, they will be more than 11 degrees below the 31º experienced by the people of A Coruña in 2011.
If we broaden the focus to the rest of the country's municipalities, on the map drawn by the maximum temperatures of these three days, the intense purple that surrounds the Guadalquivir, the interior of Valencia and Badajoz impacts, with temperatures that will reach 40 degrees.
In the rest of the southern half of the country and in Bajo Aragón they will reach levels above 35 degrees.
In this search engine you can consult the maximum temperatures that will be registered in the municipalities of more than 20,000 inhabitants of the country.
Methodology
Methodology.
The historical data and forecasts for this week come from the Aemet Open Data portal and have been obtained through the R climaemet package.
The predictions published by the State Meteorological Agency include data for all municipalities in Spain, but not the historical one, which collects data from individual weather stations.
To calculate the maximum historical data in the months of April for each provincial capital, we proceed as follows:
We averaged the data from all stations in the municipality for each day.
We calculate the maximum of that average in each city and each year.
In the provincial capitals where there is not or has not been a weather station continuously in the last 50 years, we have taken as reference the station closest to the capital, usually located at the airport that serves that city.
This is the case of Granada, Logroño, Lugo, Huesca, Tarragona, Girona and Las Palmas de Gran Canaria.
For Léon, we have analyzed the data from the Valverde de la Virgen station;
for Castellón, those of Almassora;
and for Palencia, those of Autilla del Pino.
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