Elections in Paraguay: Mercosur, single currency, waterway and Itaipu, the issues that Santiago Peña will have to sit down to discuss with Brazil and Argentina

In the midst of a scenario that predicted a hard-fought and uncertain end, the unappealable victory of

in the presidential elections of Paraguay reconfirms the dominance of the Colorado Party in the politics of the neighboring country.

Once the electoral contest is over,

the president-elect , from resolving the internal issues of his party to what decision he will make regarding Mercosur and the relationship with Taiwan.

The first expectation in the region is

Peña will take

: go deeper or seek agreements abroad.

The leaders of the bloc's countries, in fact, were among

Santiago Peña on his victory.

Alberto Fernández spoke with the president-elect, and later tweeted that "integration is the way."

Lula da Silva, for his part, promised that they would "work together

development and prosperity" and Luis Lacalle Por congratulated him and stated that they would work to "empower the region."

Agreements outside or inside Mercosur?

In previous statements, Peña has said that, although Mercosur must be rethought based on the current dynamics of each country, Paraguay's integration into the world

"Sebastián Peña is going to deepen the idea of ​​Mercosur as a market for all the countries of the bloc," says the writer and political analyst, Carlos Mateo Balmelli, who rules out

the new president could seek to venture outside the bloc.

Santiago Peña celebrates with his wife, Leticia Ocampos de Pea.

Photo: NORBERTO DUARTE / AFP

In this context,

and would differ from Uruguay, which in recent times has expressed on more than one occasion its desire to seek bilateral agreements with other countries, particularly with China.

"At the regional level, and somewhat because of Argentina's fragility, Paraguay's foreign policy has tended to be

and I don't think Peña has the autonomy to deviate from that," Mateo completes.

Relations with Argentina

Within the multilateral context that Mercosur means, Peña will also have to face bilateral issues with Argentina and Brazil.

The

on Paraguayan products that circulate through the Paraná Waterway, decided unilaterally by Argentina, and the renegotiation with Brazil of the Itaipu tariff, are

for the president-elect of Paraguay.

“Peña is going to have to sit down with Alberto Fernández and with Lula da Silva to

.

Regarding Mercosur, there are three questions: what do you think of the common currency, which has already been addressed by Argentina and Brazil;

What do you think of Uruguay's attitude to seek bilateral agreements, and what is done with the exchange rates”, explains the economist and political consultant, Sebastián Acha, in dialogue with Clarín,

to the differences in the value of currencies.

Currently, the fact that the guaraní is more appreciated than the Argentine peso causes smuggling on the border between the two countries

It is an issue that, according to Acha, has practically not been addressed in multilateral summits of Mercosur, like the issue of border tourism.

"If Peña has the courage that we are asking of him, it could be a breath of fresh air for the bloc, and he could manage to put these issues on the table for debate, if we want Mercosur to continue to exist as such," completes

.

Taiwan, the United States and the situation of Cartes

Although the controversy over the discussion about Paraguay's relationship with Taiwan revolved around the statements made at the time by the opposition candidate, Efraín Alegre, the link between the two countries is a topic that is installed in the Paraguayan debate, given that the agricultural and livestock sectors

in order to gain access to their markets.

The opposition candidate, Efraín Alegre.

Photo: EFE

“For farmers, it is a commercial question: establishing relations with Beijing in order to sell their products there.

For the political sectors linked to the Colorado Party, it is about

and thus maintaining

and the Indo-Pacific countries," Rubén Ramírez, former Paraguayan foreign minister and current head of the consultant Trade Investment Paraguay (TIP).

In the run-up to the elections,

.

"It is founded on democratic values ​​and principles, and we believe that Taiwan's experience can be very valuable for a country like Paraguay," she said in an interview with AFP.

With the victory of the Colorado Party candidate, it is expected that Paraguay will maintain its position and continue without maintaining diplomatic relations with China.

“If at the regional level, Paraguay's foreign policy follows the rhythm of Brazil's, outside the bloc, it is characterized by being aligned with that of the United States.

In this sense,

given that Taiwan is a military and strategic stopper for China," says Mateo, who adds that the strengthening of Cartes due to Peña's victory creates an uncomfortable situation for the United States.

According to this perspective, Cartes could seek that Peña

since the declaration of

that Washington imposed on him complicates not only his political life, but also his financial situation.

It is an open question regarding how the relationship between the two will develop, considering that Cartes is considered Peña's political godfather.

“It has already been seen with Lula and Dilma.

With Cristina and Alberto Fernández.

”, completes Mateo.

Asunción, special envoy

ap

look too

The intact machinery of the Colorado Party in Paraguay: from Stroessner's frauds to the only defeat in democracy

Chilavert's electoral failure in Paraguay: what percentage he obtained and the promise he asked a rival in the presidential race to keep