The silence in the center of Asunción
is sepulchral.
Every once in a while you hear a car go by.
An engine noise that only for a few seconds breaks the tranquility of the sunny Monday holiday morning.
Gone was the roar of the fireworks and the merriment of the members of the Colorado Party, who on Sunday night celebrated
the victory
of Santiago Peña in the
Paraguayan presidential elections.
In the Paraguayan capital, this Labor Day means rest from work and also
an end to the political maelstrom
that has consumed the country in recent weeks.
Sunday's result means Santiago Peña will become Paraguay's eighth president since the return of democracy.
He will take office on August 15,
replacing Mario Abdo Benítez, a succession that means the
Colorado Party's historic dominance
in Paraguay will continue.
In this sense, it is worth remembering that, in the last 75 years,
he only lost one election
against Fernando Lugo, in 2008.
May 1st in Asunción, with its deserted streets.
Photo: Nortberto Duarte/ AFP
Surprise in the results
The first reaction to the resounding victory of Santiago Peña and the Colorado Party
is surprise
.
Not because they didn't think Paraguay's most traditional party would emerge victorious, but because of the way it did.
The previous analyzes spoke of
a close scenario
and of an uncertainty that was cut short practically from the moment the count began and Peña's advantage over Efraín Alegre never fell below 15 percentage points.
"The divided opposition does not win"
For the writer and analyst, Carlos Mateo, the keys to the triumph of the Colorado Party must be
found in the opposition.
“The divided opposition does not win.
In 2018 he achieved a better articulation and got many more votes than now.
Now they were divided between the Concertación, Payo Cubas and others, so they divided the votes.
Among all of them, they added more votes than the ANR ”, he explains to
Clarín
.
Reviewing the numbers serves to give an idea of the magnitude of the triumph.
Santiago Peña received 1,291,914 votes (42.7% of the votes), while Alegre obtained 830,617 (27.4%),
a convincing difference of more than 15 percentage points.
A separate paragraph for Payo Cubas, the anti-system candidate who came third with 692,614 votes (22.9%), a figure that makes him a weighty actor in Paraguayan politics.
Remains of the election, in Asunción.
Photo: Norberto Duarte/ AFP
“A totally unexpected result, which shows us that
a lot of misinformation circulated in the previous scenario
.
Nobody imagined that this could happen: absolute predominance of the Colorado Party and the emergence of Payo Cubas as the anti-system, which ends up being a system”, explains
former deputy and political consultant Sebastián Acha to
Clarín .
The surprise that runs through Paraguayan society and that Acha verbalizes is connected to
the abundant denunciations of corruption
that circulated throughout the campaign against the Colorado Party, and against its president, Horacio Cartes.
"This shows that the Colorado Party
is immune to any criticism
, a party with a tremendous vocation for power that is unbeatable in the elections," completes Acha.
The congress
The numbers in Congress were just as compelling.
The Colorado Party obtained 43.6% of the votes for the Senate, and will have
24 senators out of 45
for the next legislative period.
An absolute majority that until now did not have.
In Deputies,
it won 49 seats out of 80
, 6 more than it had up to now.
An overwhelming majority that will not only allow him to pass projects and laws without depending on other forces, but also protects him
from the possibility of impeachment
.
He also won 14 of the 17 contested governorships.
"Santiago Peña's unappealable victory gives him
total legitimacy
and positions him to start building his own political identity and rebuild the unity of the Colorado Party," explains Acha, referring to the internal divisions that have plagued the party in recent times, divided between those who answer to the current president, Mario Abdo Benítez, and the sector to which Peña belongs, close to the former president, Horacio Cartes.
The forcefulness of the victory was such that Cartes, who had stayed away from the campaign due to accusations of corruption
, finally took the stage
with Peña to celebrate the victory.
The new president dedicated his first recognition to him in the speech he gave when the trend indicated that his victory was already irreversible, where he thanked him for
"a red and Paraguayan victory."
Cartes himself spoke later, and stated that he wants to be "a tool" for the incoming government.
Santiago Peña thanked for "a red and Paraguayan victory". PHOTO: Daniel Duarte/ AFP
Although Peña's victory means the strengthening of Cartes within the Colorado Party, analysts estimate that the president will have to decide what attitude to take with respect to his mentor.
“In the elections for senators and representatives, several exponents of the ANR who are on the sidewalk in front of Cartes won.
In order for Peña to really unite the party, he is going to have to build bridges with these sectors”, details Acha.
Delays and the mirage of high participation
Throughout the day, one of the maxims repeated by the electoral authorities was that the level of participation
was very high
.
An impression that was corroborated when touring the schools in the center of Asunción.
Long lines
that meandered along the stairs and patios, in some cases even leaving the schools themselves.
The high turnout data was significant, as it was an indicator that the opposition could aspire to prevail over the mobilization power of the Colorado apparatus.
After the elections, however, the Superior Court of Electoral Justice determined that
participation was 63%.
Just two points above the 61% registered in the 2018 elections that Mario Abdo Benítez narrowly won over Efraín Alegre.
electronic machines
“The idea that there was a high turnout, much more than usual, was produced by
the delays of the people to vote
with the electronic machines.
As people took longer to understand how they worked, and then to vote, an impression was created that there were more people in the voting centers”, explains Acha.
The delays for the vote were palpable.
In a school visited by
Clarín
in the center of Asunción, the flow of people who approached a machine placed on one of the sides of the patio was constant.
The electronic machines caused long waits and lines to vote.
Photo: Daniel Duarte/ AFP
"There are many people who asked me to explain, especially the elderly," confirmed Ana, the woman in charge of explaining how the machine worked, to this envoy.
At another school, there were delays caused by one of the machines
breaking down
after a person inserted a folded ballot, causing the device to jam.
"The participation of around 60%
is a high participation for a country like Paraguay
. It happens that, in a context with an apparatus as strong as that of the Colorados, more is needed," Acha confides.
With a number of affiliates that the most conservative calculations place between 1 and 1.2 million people, the Colorado Party has an approximate floor close to 25% of the votes out of a register of around 4.8 million votes. .
In a scenario like this Sunday's, those numbers show how much advantage a Colorado candidate has in any presidential election.
Asunción, special envoy
ap
look too
The intact machinery of the Colorado Party in Paraguay: from Stroessner's frauds to the only defeat in democracy
Elections in Paraguay: who is Efraín Alegre, the opponent who is seeking the presidency for the third time