The main stimulus that reactivated the possible candidacy of Cristina Kirchner has been the almost conviction that, without her,
the current ruling party could suffer an electoral catastrophe and be left out of the ballot
.
It is a decision that has a high risk because even her hypothetical contest does not guarantee a good result since the second electoral round against Cambiemos or with Milei is -for the former President-
a very difficult hill to reach.
It is interesting to break down the possible reasons for Cristina's candidacy and none of them can be analyzed without the almost certainty that a heavy defeat looms in October.
Because if in 2019 the conditions were adverse to Cristina's candidacy, which determined the failed invention of Alberto Fernández,
now they are worse than those
regardless of the index used.
If the economy is as it is, with high inflation and symptoms of recession, the
spirit of society is on the floor.
In this key, the notorious growth of Javier Milei is explained, who is located in all the surveys disputing the first places.
The inbred game of Argentine politics seeks to crush the adversary, without finding stable solutions for the whole.
And it's giving birth to this new type of
extreme and dangerous alternatives that promise more storms.
One of the keys that Milei is growing is that, according to reliable sources,
business contributions to his
De él campaign increased.
The growth of the hard right is not the only patrimony of this country
and its origin is easily found in the chain errors that have been and are being committed in the name of "progressivism."
Today, in Chile, another chapter of this phenomenon can be seen in the election of constituents.
What the crude manipulation of the “proscription” has not been able to do, perhaps Milei's push
to convince Cristina to go out on the field again and offer herself as the counterpart of the true right wing on the rise
.
In the crack -in the STEP it will be a very powerful factor- the extremes win.
As if that were not enough, terrorism has already been unleashed on the future:
Kirchnerism promises hell if the opposition wins.
Sergio Massa's hypothesis is sinking into the swamp of inflation
: how could he campaign with this impossible burden?
Why would he do things differently as President than he can't do today as a minister?
His daily concern is that the crisis does not worsen and that the United States gives him a hand at the IMF so that some disbursement arrives that will free him, if it frees him, from Cristina's cardinal sin: devaluing.
Cristina does not want STEP because what she really rejects is that a Peronist candidate
be legitimized by the votes and from there begin to build another story
.
Even in the twilight, the former President needs to remain an indisputable reference.
If it's not her or Massa, only Kicillof would remain as an option to defend what's left standing.
Much has been said and written that the STEP will be the ones that order the policy and shed some certainty.
But there is still more than a month left for the first definitions,
an eternity for the Argentine volcano.
After Mauricio Macri's premature move,
which gave air to Patricia Bullrich but much more to Milei
, the PRO became involved in a conflict in which what is conspicuous by its absence is leadership.
It is a party that has only one district, the City (and that can reach the Casa Rosada).
But it is very noticeable that there is no firm driving.
What is behind these twists and turns between Macri and Larreta?
There is a leadership dispute that, paradoxically, overshadows Bullrich who offers himself as a clearer alternative than the one offered by the current head of the City Government but which in general overlaps with Milei.
Patricia is not the same, it is obvious, but in the simplification made by the electorate,
the libertarian is favored.
Another issue is the expansion of JxC with the incorporation of Espert, resisted by Bullrich and by Macri
because he disputes the same strip as Patricia.
But it is an incorporation promoted by Larreta, the radicals and the Civic Coalition.
In the City, María Eugenia Vidal is still waiting for Mauricio Macri to consecrate her.
But the former President
is stubborn that his cousin Jorge is the PRO candidate
.
Here it is also seen that Macri reads this dispute as a struggle for leadership:
he prefers to risk the district rather than give in to Vidal being the Buenos Aires PRO candidate.
Because so far the local ruling party has three candidates -Jorge M., Quiros and López Murphy- to face Martín Lousteau in the primaries.
The radical thus has a certain chance.
He is an ally of Larreta, who is definitely gambling on his project that any drastic change requires
the accumulation of a critical mass that allows it to be carried out.
In other words, concrete political agreements.
With that aim, he went to a "secret" dialogue with some members of the CGT leadership in which he was naive.
Because the version that he spread almost immediately fitted the unionists like a glove: Larreta, according to union sources, promised not to try to change labor laws or touch social works.
He did not say exactly that, they say from the other side,
quite the opposite
.
If so, it was demonstrated which side the political professionals are on to impose the official version of the conclave.
Rodríguez Larreta's electoral objective is to have ties with sectors of Peronism so that they support him in the event that he reaches the ballot, if the head of government defeats Bullrich internally, something that remains to be
seen
.
The polls that the national government claims to have are adverse to Larreta and favorable to her adversary.
Instead, the head of government says he is leading not only the internal one and that he would contest the second round with Milei.
Seeing is believing.
