How will Russia react when Ukraine launches its counter-offensive?
Experts reckon that Putin will rely at least in part on support from above.
Munich/Moscow – Things could get tight for Russian President Vladimir Putin in the coming weeks.
Ukraine will probably start their counteroffensive soon.
The Kremlin was already preparing its people for possible consequences.
In order to avoid defeat in the Ukraine war, Putin could rely on help from above, because Russia has the second largest air force in the world.
And this is exactly what could be used now.
Ukraine's counter-offensive: is Putin now relying on his air fleets?
About 900 fighter jets and 120 bombers are believed to
be under Putin's command, according to
Newsweek .
In other words, Russia's naval reserve is about ten times larger than Ukraine's.
Dale Buckner, CEO of international security firm Global Guardian, told
Newsweek.
"
Russia has an almost overwhelming level of air superiority that it has yet to bring to the war," he said.
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Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Will he soon rely on the increased use of missiles?
© Artem Geodakyan/dpa
The Mikoyan Mig-35, Sukhoi SU-35 and SU-57 models in particular could decimate the counteroffensive and pose a challenge to Ukraine, Buckner explained.
The leaked US documents already indicated that the Ukrainian air defense system has weaknesses.
Before Counter-Offensive: Ukrainian Air Defense Deteriorates – How Will Putin Respond?
In addition, an analysis should show that the Ukrainian air defenses can defend their own troops, but not the cities and infrastructure, should Putin decide to use fighter jets.
The analysis is by Mark Cancian, senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), who spoke to
Newsweek
about Russia's air fleets.
So far, Russia has been risk-averse in the air.
He doesn't believe that Russia will soon be flying over the Ukrainian sky.
Still, Ukraine cannot shoot down every cruise missile or drone "because the Ukrainians are running out of missiles," he explained.
"If the Ukrainians don't get more air defense resources in the longer term, then I think the Russians can gradually use their air superiority and gain an increasing advantage," Cancian said.
Should the situation of Ukraine's air defense deteriorate, he expects Russia to become more aggressive.
Dale Buckner says Russia could intervene with planes if Ukraine is "more vulnerable".
Then he believes that Russia will use part of it.
(vk)
NATO only discussed military aid for Ukraine at Ramstein in April. The delivery of fighter jets was also discussed.
List of rubrics: © Artem Geodakyan/dpa
