There is some evidence that Russia staged the drone attack in Moscow.
Meanwhile, Putin is apparently returning to his office and pretending to be normal.
MOSCOW - Images from Russian surveillance cameras in Moscow's Red Square on Wednesday (May 3) showed drones over the Kremlin - as well as explosions, fire and a plume of smoke.
According to Russian sources, the videos showed attacks by two Ukrainian drones aimed at killing Russian President Vladimir Putin.
One leads only a defensive war, however, it was said from the Ukraine.
Were the pictures just a staging by Russia?
Why western observers are assuming a PR coup by the Kremlin
Western observers, such as the US war experts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), consider it likely that Moscow itself carried out the alleged drone strikes against the Kremlin.
Several factors speak for this, such as the rapid spread of the images from the surveillance cameras on Red Square.
In all likelihood, only the Kremlin itself had access to these cameras.
However, it is still unclear who made the first recordings public.
The Kremlin's reaction was also too coordinated and quick, which speaks for internal preparations whose "intended political effects outweigh the embarrassment," the ISW experts judged in their analysis on Wednesday.
When it came to other events in the Ukraine war that were disadvantageous for Russia - such as the loss of the flagship Moskva or the defeat in Cherson - the Kremlin's communication was much less orderly.
Technical reasons also speak against a Ukrainian attack, so alleged Ukrainian drones would have had to overcome a whole series of defense systems in Moscow.
The so-called “spoofing”, which deceives control systems with the help of GPS interference signals, is used particularly at the Kremlin, the US expert Dana Goward pointed out.
From his point of view, the drones that reached the Kremlin could have flown without GPS, which indicates manual control from the immediate vicinity.
"It is extremely unlikely that two drones could penetrate multiple layers of air defenses and detonate or be shot down directly over the Kremlin, creating spectacular images that were well captured by the camera," the ISW said.
So what is behind the possible staging of the Kremlin?
Alleged drone attack on the Kremlin: what Russia wants to achieve with the pictures
Russia has been canceling military parades and marches traditionally held on May 9, the day of victory over Nazi Germany, for weeks.
The Kremlin cites the security situation and the "terrorist threat" in the country as reasons.
A few weeks ago, Russian authorities had already reported a drone in the Bogorodsk district, just 50 kilometers east of Moscow, and then canceled the parade planned there.
The alleged drone attack shortly before May 9 could now serve as an excuse to cancel further celebrations.
Russia may simply lack the tanks and weapon systems that otherwise patrol in front of thousands of spectators on this occasion.
In addition, Kremlin chief Putin could fear that people will use the day of remembrance to commemorate their relatives who died in the Ukraine war.
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Surveillance camera images in Moscow's Red Square show fire at one of the Kremlin's towers May 3, 2023. Russia claims there was a Ukrainian drone strike.
© IMAGO/Kremlin Red Square CCTV/ UPI Photo
According to US war experts at the ISW on Thursday, the staged drone attacks could also serve to portray the war as an existential threat to Russia.
This is intended to justify increased mobilization measures in the country and to increase support for the domestic war.
The allegedly staged drone attack could therefore strengthen the regime.
The ISW warned that more such staged false flag attacks could follow.
It also cannot be ruled out that the Kremlin will use the incident as a pretext for an escalation in the Ukraine war.
Corresponding tones were heard after the alleged attack from Russia.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stressed on Friday that the attack could not have taken place without the knowledge of the United States and threatened Russia with a concrete reaction without giving details.
Former Kremlin boss Dmitry Medvedev called for the "physical elimination" of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his "clique".
Meanwhile, the head of Russia's lower house, Vyacheslav Volodin, spoke out in favor of the use of weapons "that are capable of stopping and destroying the Kiev terror regime".
Ironically, Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin drew a clear line here and ruled out the use of nuclear weapons as a reaction: "We look like clowns who threaten a nuclear bomb in response to a child drone."
Business as usual?
Putin is reportedly returning to his office in the Kremlin
Putin was not in Moscow at the time of the attack, sources in the Russian capital said after the incident on Wednesday.
The Kremlin chief rarely stays in the Kremlin anyway, let alone overnight, noted Russia expert Mark Galeotti.
The Russian president is said to have returned quickly to his office in the Kremlin, as the Italian newspaper
Repubblica
reported.
Pictures published by the Kremlin on Thursday (May 4) also indicate this.
However, it is probably not always possible to say exactly where the Kremlin boss is actually located.
According to a Kremlin guard who fled Russia, Putin has set up identical offices in his private homes to conceal his true whereabouts.
The Russian President remains "calm, collected and clear in his assessments and in his orders," as is usual "in such difficult extreme situations," his spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on record.
Outwardly, the Kremlin is apparently trying to show normality, while security measures in Moscow are being tightened again.
The traditional military parade on May 9 should continue to take place regardless of the recent events in Moscow, it said.
"The President will appear as usual," confirmed the Kremlin spokesman.
However, the administration is closing Red Square particularly early this year.
Russian state television covered the drone incident only briefly, and other topics quickly returned.
Videos from the surveillance cameras were apparently not shown, but the interpretation of the incident was clear: there was talk of "terrorist attacks" on Russian soil, Kiev crossed a red line and carried out the "first air raid on the Kremlin since 1942".
The alleged staging of the drone strikes on the capital may well have the desired effect on some Russian citizens.
(
bme
)
