The criminal mediation process in Netanyahu's trial has not yet begun, but for some senior Likud officials, this is already a work plan, according to which the prime minister will not finish his term and the battle for the Likud leadership will come sooner than they thought.
Many of these senior officials took advantage of the first week of the resumption of Knesset activity to examine the situation, to examine the balance of power and their chances within the faction itself, in the assessment that the Likud faction will appoint the next prime minister if Netanyahu resigns.
It is not certain that their assessments of Netanyahu's early retirement are sound, but the discourse on it within the party began in full force. Some of those who see themselves as candidates as successors have already met with ministers and Knesset members, made clear their intentions to run and asked for their support. The many meetings and their contents indicate that the list of candidates is not small at all: Eli Cohen, Yariv Levin, Israel Katz, Amir Ohana, Nir Barkat, Danny Danon, Avi Dichter – all in the race for the day after Netanyahu.
The largest camp within the faction at the moment is that of Yariv Levin, but not only in the Likud. If he wishes to carry out a smooth transition without shocks with the other factions as well, the justice minister has an advantage over the others.
Real proof of Netanyahu's intentions to step down probably does not exist for those seeking to succeed him, but circumstantial evidence is abundant. Netanyahu seemed preoccupied to them, Leah, and mostly lacking desire.
Dichter and emerald. Some senior Likud figures see themselves as heirs, photo: Oren Ben Hakon
Although everyone who comes into contact with him categorically rejects rumors that he has become numb, and all the ministers testify that he remains razor-sharp and clear as wine, they nevertheless mention other phenomena that were not recognized by Netanyahu in the past. For example, leaving the coalition agreements and the promotion of legal reform in the hands of Yariv Levin completely. They also mention the dismissal of Yoav Galant, which was done in an imprudent and calculated manner as they were used to when it came to Netanyahu.
And then there's the legal issue. The incessant reports of impending criminal mediation and meetings between his lawyers and the relevant parties also remind us that Netanyahu will now have to pay for his own defense, after being prevented from raising money from his relatives. These are huge sums, and the trial has not even reached half its way.
Some explain Netanyahu's moves around the legal reform in the same context. The prime minister appointed Yariv Levin as justice minister and gave him the green light to rush forward with the reform, but during this period everything was rejected from it. The response to rocket fire on Israel was halted because of the reform. Shlomo Karai's changes in the field of communications were halted because of her. The entire government would have mobilized to pass the reform. Then, at the last minute, when the first bill was ready for final reading and expected to be approved within hours, Netanyahu pressed the brakes.
His conduct since then has exposed to many the fact that Netanyahu is not interested in reform at all. Certainly not at the level presented and promoted by Levin and Simcha Rothman. Quite a few see both promoting the reform and blocking it as sending a message from Netanyahu to the judicial system to come and talk to him. Not about the Judicial Appointments Commission, but about the files of thousands. Many of his opponents have already begun calls to end the story with him - the main thing is to free himself from his rule. Even Aharon Barak supports this. According to senior Likud officials, the moment when a deal turns out to be the most convenient thing for both sides is approaching. Maybe even arrived.
By the way, none of them are betting on the phrase "the Netanyahu era is over." Even after a plea bargain and resignation, before the elections he can still return. The preoccupation with the issue at the top of the Likud has already come down to the resolutions of whether elections for Netanyahu's successor will be held in the faction, and if so, what is the faction? Are the ministers who resigned from the Knesset in a faction? Or the Norwegian MKs who replaced them? Will the next prime minister be permanent until the Knesset elections or only until the primaries for the position of speaker? There were also proposals to put as prime minister a temporary agreed-upon candidate who would not be able to run in the primaries, in order to prevent confrontations that could bring down the government.
And all this discourse is taking place when there is no certainty about Netanyahu's future. One can only imagine what would happen if the predictions came true.
Until the next explosion
The past four months, during which Itamar Ben-Gvir served as national security minister, did him no favors. From the star of the elections, which many right-wing voters saw as a symbol of leadership no less than Netanyahu, Ben-Gvir has entered an office that has already buried quite a few senior figures politically, and his standing is only deteriorating. Despite the laws he sought to pass even before the government was sworn in, which were supposed to regulate his role vis-à-vis the police, the new minister did not succeed in instilling in the organization its basic guidelines, leading a different agenda for fighting crime and violence in the Arab sector and strengthening governance, and instead found himself in constant battles with the police commissioner, with Commissioner Ami Eshed, and especially with the attorney general.
Ben Gvir. The last four months have not done him any favors, Photo: Coco
The one he got from the left from day one, that's what he was prepared for. It was clear to him that he would not be given a minute of grace, nor legitimacy to serve in this position. His problem began when he began to be attacked from the right for things related to the functioning of the police for which he is responsible, for example in the story of the demonstrations and the policy of containment of the Ayalon Highway blockades, and also for other things that are not directly related to him but to the right-wing government in which he is a senior partner.
In the Ministry of National Security, it is difficult to make substantial changes in general, and in a short time in particular. Ben-Gvir took office with an incumbent police commissioner whom he did not appoint and with extras whom he did not choose. His perception of reality and that of the organization's leadership is completely different, and even the promised money for adding standards, establishing units and reinforcing means has not yet been brought, because the state budget has not yet been approved.
Leaving the government at this time, and without bringing about any significant achievements in office, could be a decisive blow for him. Damage to an image that will be difficult for him to overcome even when he returns to the slot in which he succeeded in the past - the fighting oppositionist. This week's confrontation with Netanyahu came mainly because of pressure from his supporters.
It did not begin on Wednesday, when another round of fighting in Gaza ended with a ceasefire without exacting a price from the terrorist organization that opened fire on residents of the south, but earlier. Already at a meeting of the heads of the coalition parties on Sunday, when they did not yet know that terrorist Haddar Adnan would die a few hours later in his cell, Ben-Gvir asked for permission to speak, saying: "We are talking here about the draft law and the budget, and these are important things that need to be discussed. But there are other things we don't talk about, and I want to bring them up here. We have established a right-wing government, and the public wants us to promote a right-wing agenda. There are a number of things that we haven't begun to address, and there are things that we started but withdrew."
At this point, Netanyahu intervened and replied to Ben-Gvir that there were battles that needed to be withdrawn and redeployed. He elaborated on the example of Alexander the Great, who, as soon as he encountered two fronts, decided to retreat. Ben-Gvir replied to Netanyahu that he agrees that sometimes this should be done, but that withdrawals cannot be turned into a work plan. "Gaza - withdrawing, Lebanon - withdrawing, Khan al Ahmar - withdrawing, judicial reform - withdrawing," Ben-Gvir said.
He also accused Netanyahu of torpedoing his move to deny phones to terrorists in prisons, which he revealed in a statement to the media on Wednesday, telling him: "After my decision, you went to talk to the IPS commissioner to change it. What kind of thing is that? In the end, we have to take steps by the right."
Ben-Gvir admits that it would be a bad time for him to quit the government, and also for the entire right, since the current government is the best alternative. We swallowed a lot of frogs, he says, we didn't make noise, we didn't threaten, but you can no longer wave the excuse of not having an alternative to justify inaction. When we look back four months, except for the approval of the nine outposts and the five-year law, we have no achievement for the right. And not only that, but also from what we had already started, we withdrew.
The response in Gaza was feeble, he says. So at first they said: There is legal reform, we have to restrain. Then they said: There is Ramadan. What's the excuse now? Netanyahu didn't make the switch. The spirit he leads is not the spirit of a right-wing government.
Government sources say Netanyahu does not believe Ben-Gvir and does not trust him. It is no coincidence that he is not invited to security discussions, despite his role as national security minister, he simply does not want him there. Netanyahu sees Ben-Gvir as an extremist and has no intention of sharing sensitive issues with him. When this is the approach, the question of how much the two will be able to cooperate over time will probably continue to reverberate between the two, until the next explosion.
And though you will procrastinate
The judicial reform won't move forward anytime soon, but that doesn't mean that its supporters, including those who took to the streets of Jerusalem in their thousands last Thursday, won't get at least a little of what they want – to put the justice system in order – soon. Last Monday, the Knesset Constitution Committee held a discussion on the Pegasus affair, with the participation of senior police and prosecution officials, including attorney Amit Marari, who headed the investigative committee appointed by Attorney General Mandelblit when the affair exploded. At the hearing, Marari admitted that the spyware had been used in more than a thousand cases, contrary to her own report.
The hearing also revealed that contrary to the prosecution's claim in real time, according to which prohibited substances were not extracted from the phones on which the software was implanted, there is really no way to know whether they were used or not. "So how do you check yourself?" said MK Moshe Saada, a former senior official in the DIP, "How can the police and the State Prosecutor's Office examine their own failure?" His question remained an orphan.
Deputy Attorney General Marari, Photo: Oren Ben Hakon
The person who supervises police investigations is the State Prosecutor's Office. Wiretapping warrants are issued by judges. Both failed in their roles. But there is no one to check, no one to investigate. In the Pegasus case, there are several hundred "regular" investigations in which the software was used, but more cardinal cases are known to have been used, including investigations that affected an entire country, such as the Netanyahu investigations.
Committee Chairman Simcha Rotman's concluding statement said that he called on the Minister of Justice to consider establishing a commission of inquiry on the matter. If it is established, the thresholds in the State Prosecutor's Office will tremble.
Another move that has nothing to do with the reform but is likely to shake up the system is the law to separate the DIP from the State Prosecutor's Office and grant investigatory powers against prosecutors. The State Comptroller's report published this week – the main conclusion of which is that the PIU cannot continue to exist in the Ministry of Justice due to an inherent conflict of interest – may provide the tailwind needed to move Saada's law on the issue.
And then there are the other reform clauses themselves, which are waiting on the table. The talks at the president's residence will soon end with nothing, and the ball will return to Netanyahu. The assessment is that the reform will not return in the same format that began, but with proper explanation and limited measures, parts of it will be approved in the coming months.
Wrong? We'll fix it! If you find a mistake in the article, please share with us