Sexual abuse verdict casts doubt on Trump's suitability as a candidate in 2024

2023-05-10T18:47:37.747Z

Highlights: Donald Trump will appear on CNN on Wednesday night to respond to the jury's verdict. The best-placed Republican candidate for the White House in 2024 will appear. But under the spotlight, in the Republican corridors and circles, Trump's suitability as a candidate in 2024 does not seem so clear. The dilemma about whether the judicial cases can harm him or, on the contrary, feed his victimhood to reap even more adhesions has been served for some time, and now fueled by the verdict of sexual abuse.

While Republicans have closed ranks in previous cases, questions are growing about the impact sexual assault will have on voters.

Donald Trump, Republican candidate for the White House in 2024, on April 27 at a rally in Manchester (New Hamsphire). Charles Krupa (AP)

A day after being convicted of sexual abuse, and sentenced to pay five million dollars to the victim, Donald Trump plans to take advantage of prime-time television cameras to recover one of his avatars, that of reality TV star. The best-placed Republican candidate for the White House in 2024 will appear on Wednesday night in a special program of the CNN continuous information network, with an audience, which will allow him to respond to the jury's verdict. But also, above all, campaigning, given his ability to transform judicial setbacks into donations and popularity percentages. He did so in April, after being indicted on 34 counts of buying the silence of a porn actress. His strategy worked, not only in terms of the record of donations for his campaign: in the last published poll, last weekend, Trump was ahead of President Joe Biden in the 2024 presidential elections, with 44% support compared to 37% for the Democrat.

But under the spotlight, in the Republican corridors and circles, Trump's suitability as a candidate in 2024 does not seem so clear. The dilemma about whether the judicial cases can harm him or, on the contrary, feed his victimhood to reap even more adhesions, has been served for some time, and now fueled by the verdict of sexual abuse. A third derivative, more discreet, is resolved above all in the more moderate sector of the party: if the presence of a tainted leader – he has other pending cases, in addition to the two cases for which he has been convicted – it will not also end up contaminating the old party, or at least the old apparatus that has always criticized the stridencies of the magnate.

Being on the crest of the wave has always been consubstantial to Trump, but the specificity of the latest ruling, which makes him responsible for sexual abuse, introduces a new factor, especially in the face of hypothetical voters. If in April all his co-religionists closed ranks around Trump, seconding his complaint of being the victim of a "political witch hunt", it is more difficult to see him in the face of sexual assault, a particularly sensitive issue for voters. Some today recall a November 2017 poll of a series of unrelated sexual harassment allegations against Trump: Respondents overwhelmingly (61% vs. 33%) that he should be impeached and removed from office if the facts were proven. Even 28% of Republicans agreed. The support for his accusation was higher than that shown on the occasion of the two impeachments, or political trial, to which he was subjected, and from which he emerged unscathed. For Republicans, finding out if those numbers are still valid, or have even gone up after the verdict of sexual abuse, is decisive now.

Trump insists on including the sexual assault case against writer E. Jean Carroll in the same "witch hunt," alleging that a known Democratic Party donor is allegedly behind the woman's complaint. Trump extends suspicion to critics such as conservative lawyer George Conway, one of those recalcitrant conservatives faithful to the traditional essence of the party. Conway, in fact, could not hide the opinion that Trump deserves when tweeting on Monday, after knowing the verdict of the jury: "God bless E. Jean Carroll. And congratulations to Roberta Kaplan and her team [of prosecution attorneys] for a job well done."

The witch hunt, some analysts believe, can be a label that works for the processes for tax fraud of your company, some of them with firm conviction; the attempted pout in Georgia in 2020, the retention of confidential documents in his Florida mansion or, finally, his role instigating the assault on the Capitol in January 2021. In all of them, the Republican majority has closed ranks. But the sensitive nature of the sexual assault has given Republicans extra caution, who mostly declined to comment or said they were unfamiliar with the case.

Very few voices condemned the former president on Monday. The first was former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson, his rival in the Republican primary: "The jury's verdict must be treated seriously and is another example of Donald Trump's indefensible behavior." The number two Republican in the Senate, John Thune, said the verdict in the sex case should make the party rethink its chances in 2024. "I think there's going to be continued drumbeat for the next two years as long as [Trump] is a candidate," Thune said. "People are going to have to decide if that's a factor. For many voters, it will be." Texas Sen. John Cornyn was even clearer: "I don't think I can get elected" in 2024.

Women's vote at stake

Only Florida Sen. Marco Rubio threw a hat at Trump. "The jury is a joke. The whole case is a joke," he lamented. Trump's former number two in the White House, Mike Pence, slipped away as best he could when asked about Trump's suitability as a candidate for re-election. "I think it's a question for the American people to answer," he said Monday night in an interview on NBC News. The calculation of silence especially reaches Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who has avoided criticizing Trump as he prepares to launch his campaign for the presidency. Among the most relevant Republicans, the slogan of avoiding shaking the hornet's nest seems to prevail.

In the face of potential voters, Trump's advisers find it difficult to attract women college graduates – the adhesion of the lower segments has so far been clearer – and the New York verdict may make the harvest even more difficult. The worrying fact is that Trump accumulates a growing lag among voters. In the poll cited, from the Washington Post and ABC News, 44% of women preferred Biden, compared to 41% in favor of Trump, while among men the result was the opposite: 48% for Trump and 31% for Biden. The gender gap was similar in the question about a hypothetical Biden-DeSantis showdown.

"Almost everyone has made a decision about Donald Trump, and some Republicans are absolutely determined to ignore absolutely everything he says or does, no matter how egregious," Republican consultant and pollster Frank Luntz told The Washington Post. "Where this comes into play and where it's important is in a critical swing group: women with children in suburban areas who are economically conservative and socially moderate, but you won't hear anything about them until November," he added. In 2020, Trump lost the electoral college, among other factors, because of the female vote.

Follow all the international information on Facebook and Twitter, or in our weekly newsletter.