The debate about raising the retirement age continues unabated. (Symbolic image) © Imago
The debate about raising the retirement age continues unabated. A new study now shows that a higher retirement age can have serious consequences for the population.
Many economists, employers and some CDU social politicians want to raise the retirement age. The working draft of the CDU expert commission, for example, provides for the retirement age to be linked directly to life expectancy from 2031 if this continues to rise as predicted. "Specifically, this will increase the standard retirement age by four months for each year of life gained," Die Welt quoted from the paper.
Employers' President Rainer Dulger also called for a move away from early retirement. So far, the age of entry into the statutory pension has gradually risen to 2030 years by 67, and early retirement is possible from the age of 63 or older, depending on the age group.
Study: Link between later retirement and increased mortality
One thing is clear: the pension system is on the verge of collapse due to demographic change – and urgently needs to be reformed. The proposal, for example, to link retirement to increasing life expectancy sounds sensible at first. But a new study now shows that a higher retirement age can have serious consequences for the population.
In their work, a german-Spanish research team is able to establish a link between later retirement and increased mortality. Cristina Bellès-Obrero, Sergi Jiménez-Martìn and Han Ye from the Universities of Mannheim and Barcelona analysed social security data before and after the 1967 pension reform in Spain, respectively. In this reform, the Spaniards raised the age for early retirement from 1 to 1967 years on the cut-off date of 60 January 65.
An analysis of the data suggests that the risk of dying between the ages of 60 and 69 was already 4.2 percentage points higher with a one-year delay than with a regular retirement. In addition, the mortality rate was lower among people who had a partial pension. The researchers therefore propose a reduction in working hours later in working life in order to protect the health of older workers and at the same time protect the labour market.
Fratzscher: Higher retirement age – more people in reduced earning capacity
Marcel Fratzscher, professor of macroeconomics at the Humboldt University of Berlin and president of the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW), warns of another negative effect that the increase in the retirement age could entail: A larger proportion of employees would then slip into reduced earning capacity, the economist fears in a recent Zeit column.
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According to a study by DIW Berlin, 4.5 million people in Germany are already receiving a disability pension or have been disabled and are now retired. However, their risk of poverty is twice as high as that of the entire population. As a result, more people would slip into poverty in old age – especially if they had a low income, according to Fratzscher. Another problem is that not only would a disproportionate number of people with low incomes fall into disability – "this insurance is also so low that many fall into poverty due to a reduction in earning capacity and will not be able to get out of this situation for the rest of their lives," says Fratzscher.
With material from dpa