Russian President Vladimir Putin (left) together with Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. (Archive image) © Mikhail Metzel/imago-images
Despite the threat of a counteroffensive, Putin is apparently not planning a new wave of mobilization. Kremlin critic Vladimir Milov wants to know the reason for this.
Washington D.C. (USA) – "The Kremlin is very afraid of potential destabilization," says Vladimir Milov, a Russian economist and opposition politician. In a discussion at the Atlantic Council think tank (Washington D.C.), he described his expectations of Ukraine's spring offensive. Vladimir Putin's biggest problem is the quality of his armed forces, according to the Kremlin expert. And so the question arises as to why Putin has still not launched a second wave of mobilization.
It is difficult to estimate how many soldiers of the Russian army have already fallen or been injured since the attack on Ukraine. It can only be guessed that tens of thousands of people must have already lost their lives. According to mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin, about 10,000 of the 50,000 prisoners recruited as fighters have already been killed in the Wagner group alone. Among the professional Wagner mercenaries, the death rate is similarly high. Prigozhin did not give any figures on this. But he said: "There are now tens of thousands of relatives of killed fighters. There will probably be hundreds of thousands. You can't hide that." Also on Tuesday, Ukraine reports a "devastating blow" to Russian forces.
Kremlin expert Milov: Putin is afraid of further destabilization
"The second mobilization was expected from the moment of the first mobilization," Milov said. "But it didn't happen." For him, one thing is certain: "This step would also come too late for Ukraine's imminent counteroffensive, because it takes a long time to train new soldiers. They wouldn't be ready for combat before September, and they'd be useless at the moment."
First and foremost, Putin would not recruit new soldiers because the Kremlin was not satisfied with the response to the first wave of mobilization for the Ukraine conflict within Russia. "Public support has declined significantly since the mobilization. It has stabilised somewhat, but the Kremlin is very afraid of further destabilisation."
Kremlin insiders: Further mobilization not good for Russia's economy
Behind the Kremlin's hesitation there is also an economic consideration. As a result of the mobilization, "at least hundreds of thousands" have left the country. "If you read all the economic assessments these days, then this reduction in labor is a big problem for the economy in Russia." In addition, the "quality" of the recruited is so poor. From the Kremlin's point of view, further mobilization may not be worth the risk of losing public support and loss of manpower. A new mobilization would only happen out of desperation, Milow predicted.
From the environment of the army, one hears that the troops stationed in Ukraine have a poor morale and great fear of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, also because of a lack of specialized forces. On the other hand, Russia's air force is strong. However, Milow also warns the allies in the Ukraine war: One should not make the mistake of pushing Ukraine to take steps, Ukraine needs time. (kat)