The Israeli-Saudi peace train has long since left the station and set off, but it is advancing at a Saudi pace: two steps forward and one step back, and it is still unclear exactly when it will reach its destination.
The Saudis, cautious as usual, speak in two voices: they express support and hope for normalization of relations with Israel as a cornerstone of the effort to ensure stability in the region, but at the same time they raise a list of conditions that make advancing relations between the two countries difficult, if not impossible. At the same time, they give a warm embrace to members of the Middle Eastern axis of evil, from Syria to Iran, with whom they recently renewed diplomatic relations after a long break.
But despite the ambiguity and ambiguity, the question at hand is not whether Israeli-Saudi peace is possible or even desirable. This Rubicon has long been crossed by the Saudis. The question is how quickly this will happen. The fact is that relations between the two countries are progressing slowly, but nevertheless the momentum continues. Thus, for example, the Saudis allow Israeli airlines to fly over the kingdom, and soon a direct flight line will be operated between the two countries to fly pilgrims to Mecca during the Hajj season. Equally important, cooperation and dialogue in the security sphere continue on their own track and independent of faltering public diplomacy.
True, the hope of a quick breakthrough in relations between the two countries was dashed, and instead of an Israeli embassy, an Iranian embassy was opened in the Saudi capital. However, as far as the Saudis are concerned, this is not a contradiction, since renewing relations with Iran should not come at the expense of renewing relations with Israel; on the contrary, it may even facilitate a move in this direction.
The Saudis continue to view Iran as an existential threat and do not trust it, but they prefer to conduct their rivalry with it while the two countries maintain diplomatic relations rather than from a situation of frontal and open confrontation. After all, when the Iranians attacked Saudi tankers and oil facilities in recent years, the Saudis were left alone. Washington has refrained from coming to their aid, and the Saudis have no desire to be dragged back into a confrontation with Tehran alone.
But like the UAE, which maintains friendly relations with Bashar al-Assad and the Iranians while promoting relations with Israel, Saudi Arabia sees no contradiction between the two.
But we must remember that there are no free meals in the Middle East, and the Saudis expect something in return. The problem is that the U.S. is supposed to pay, at least in part, of the return, but Washington is not enthusiastic about doing so. The Americans continue to criticize the Saudi regime for human rights violations and are not eager to provide the Saudis with advanced weapons or even promote a Saudi nuclear program.
Matters are tiresome, and the fact that Israel is sinking into its domestic problems does not help. But we must not give up on Saudi Arabia. It is an important Axis state, and perhaps even the most important Arab state in the Arab world today. An Israeli-Saudi peace would herald the end of the Arab-Israeli conflict, while at the same time dealt a death blow to the Palestinians' struggle against Israel.
The Saudis, like the rest of the Arab countries, are fed up with the Palestinians. But Saudi Arabia has pretensions to the leadership of the Islamic world, and its rulers are obligated to listen to voices at home, from public opinion, and from the Saudi religious establishment, which is an important element in the building of this country.
Hence the extreme caution and even the fear of breaking forward. Besides, unlike Jordan or Morocco, which have maintained ties and even an intimate security dialogue with Israel for decades, in the Saudi case there is no tradition of ties between the two countries to rely on.
We should not be surprised if we are nevertheless informed of a breakthrough between Jerusalem and Riyadh, but it is more likely to expect cautious progress, heel to thumb. And after all this, even if it is delayed, peace between Israel and Saudi Arabia will come.
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