Netanyahu has been repeating in recent weeks the message that Israel will attack Iran alone if required to defend itself, and yesterday he sharpened the message twice, adding that he also opposes the interim agreements between the United States and Iran.
In fact, it seems that Netanyahu is belatedly trying to divert the gift-laden diplomatic ship that the Biden administration is sailing toward Tehran unhindered. While Israel can indeed defend itself and has the capabilities to attack Iran alone, such an attack could embroil us in a multi-front war that could be avoided, according to defense officials.
Cabinet meeting (archive), photo: Jonathan Zindel/Flash90
Against the background of statements also written in this newspaper and the sense of weakness projected in the face of the agreements, a former senior security source told Israel Hayom yesterday, "While Iran enjoys diplomatic well-being and closer relations with Russia, China, and Saudi Arabia, while even the United States is courting it to reach agreements, Israel remains fighting alone on the front against Iran's nuclear program. This is a 180-degree opposite picture to what has been here in the past decade. The Sunni-American-Israeli front has crumbled, leaving Israel alone."
Damage to power centers
Brig. Gen. Amir Avivi, founder of the "Securityists" movement, warns against the fact that Israel will be forced to act alone against Iran. Asked whether Israel has the ability to act alone vis-à-vis the nuclear facilities, Avivi replied, "Israel can hit Iranian power centers, damage to not necessarily nuclear assets, which will send a message that if they advance in the nuclear program, strategic assets will be lost. Therefore, Netanyahu's threat is real. Netanyahu's attempt to create a different understanding in Washington is the main challenge. The opposition also needs to mobilize instead of dealing with nonsense."
Amir Avivi, Photo: Yossi Zeliger
Avivi raises the main problem: "The problem is that even our supporters in America tell us, 'We are with you' in the event of an attack, but if we have to attack alone, it will lead to a regional war in the Middle East and the impact on the global economy will be enormous. Oil prices will run rampant, trade routes will be damaged, it will have a much greater impact than the Russia-Ukraine war. At the moment, vis-à-vis the current American administration, we have our backs against the wall, and there is an understanding that we will have to deal alone with the consequences of such an attack. If the current administration showed leadership and created a Sunni-American-Israeli coalition and a credible military threat against Iran, the chances of deteriorating the region into all-out war would be significantly reduced."
Ukrainian connection
Like Avivi, former senior defense officials reiterate the claim that the only threat that can deter Iran is military, as was the case in the past even during the Obama administration. But now Biden's officials are repeating the diplomatic formula over and over again, with their only near-term goal being quiet for the election and avoiding entanglement on another front to the one in Ukraine and the emerging one in the Philippines for fear of a Chinese attack in the Pacific.
"The only language Iran understands is a credible military threat and sanctions. If the U.S. lifts some of the sanctions, it will be clear where the money is going and not for monetary purposes, it will give a boost to the force buildup of Hezbollah, Hamas, militias in Iraq and affect Russia's ability to fight in Ukraine," Avivi said.
Israel suggests that the Americans act similarly to a shield and arrow system – to choose a relatively weak enemy (Islamic Jihad) and to establish deterrence against other enemies in the arena (Hamas and Hezbollah). "We suggest to them, let's build your deterrence vis-à-vis China and Russia when you work with us against Iran. The problem is that when the Americans move away from the region, our influence also decreases. The Americans are afraid of becoming entangled on another front in the Middle East, even though it is only a day-long offensive and not to conquer Iran. But in the end, if the entire region is dragged into war, the Americans will also be dragged here one way or another," Avivi explains.
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