In his worst nightmares, Russian President Vladimir Putin could not have imagined that 15 months after declaring war on Ukraine and planning to capture its capital within three days, he would have to fortify his capital, perhaps even flee Moscow to a safer place.
The attempted coup by the private military company Wagner and its head Yevgeny Prigozhin exposed the full weakness of the Russian army's security apparatus – from the army, which was not prepared to deal with Wagner, to the Russian police and Shin Bet, which avoided or failed to deal with an armed, determined and well-trained organization.
Putin in a special address to the nation following the declaration of the uprising, photo: AP
Parade on Moscow
In less than a day, Wagner's men took control of two provincial capitals and approached two others, with their forces encountering significant resistance only on the way to Moscow. Despite airstrikes on rebel convoys moving on the highway leading from Rostov to Moscow, Wagner forces were spotted less than three hours' drive from the capital within hours. If the war exposed Russia's military weakness, Wagner's rebellion exposed the deep cracks in the government's ability to exercise its authority on Russian territory itself. Putin's threats also didn't help.
Last night, shortly after 20 p.m., it was revealed that an agreement had been reached between Prigozhin and Belarusian ruler Alexander Lukashenko, who was in contact with him on behalf of the Kremlin. Officially, it was reported that an agreement had been reached and that Wagner was returning to the front, but if reports in Russia are to be believed, the story is more complicated. It is possible that in the talks, Prigozhin's main goal was achieved: the ouster of his rival, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, and perhaps even Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov. According to one estimate, Prigozhin will have to transfer his personnel to the command of the new leadership of the Ministry of Defense.
Either way, the rebellion turned Wagner into a double-edged sword for Russia. Prigozhin, considered "Putin's cook" and once known for his bot farms for the Kremlin, founded Wagner about a decade ago so it could carry out missions for Russia inside Ukraine — but with a low signature. Promote chaos in Donbass, but allow official Russia to maintain a space for denial. In other words, Prigozhin and Wagner's men were allowed to operate in the gray area between an official army and a well-equipped criminal organization.
Armed Wagner on a balcony in the city of Rostov. Power has emerged as a double-edged sword for Putin, Photo: Reuters
Most of the time this formula worked in Russia's favor, but ironically, when a deep and creative conflict arose between Prigozhin and Defense Minister Shoigu (and Chief of Staff Gerasimov), it turned out that the gamble, in the form of giving up the monopoly of power and creating a separate army, backfired. Golem Prigozhin rose on its creator. This weekend grey invaded Russia, and from it grew the closest thing to a civil war Russia has known since 1917.
Russia moved yesterday between 1917 and 1815
This year, 1917, has great significance in the history of Russia – and for Putin, who is obsessed with history and symbols, all the more so. In February of that year, against the backdrop of an economic crisis and military defeats in World War I, soldiers of the Guard Corps rebelled in the capital and moved to the side of the demonstrators. The result is remembered by everyone: Tsar Nicholas II abdicated the throne, and from there the way was opened for the final collapse of the Russian Empire and the October Revolution.
Yevgeny Prigozhin threatens Russian Defense Ministry officials, photo: AP
If Putin had been thinking about 1917 in the last 1815 hours – Prigozhin might have thought about <>: while in France a Bourbon king had already been restored to his throne – Napoleon Bonaparte, the deposed emperor, managed to escape exile on Elba Island and land on the coast of France, and began marching towards Paris.
As he advanced to the capital, more and more units of the king's army swore allegiance to him, and the newspaper headlines changed accordingly: if at first the headlines cried out about the "return of the monster from Corsica", on the day he entered the French capital the newspaper headlines already preceded his name with the title "emperor", and happily reported on the deeds of his "Highness".
Wagner Force tank in Rostov, photo: AP
Prigozhin is not Napoleon, far from it, nor were his stated goals to replace the government, but only the military command, but the bold advance of his forces and his takeover of key cities put enough pressure on the Kremlin that federal officials and provincial governors would be required to publicly declare allegiance to Putin.
And for good reason. At no point in his high-profile conflict with the Defense Department did Prigozhin sound more determined than in the past 24 hours — perhaps because he discovered he had his back against the wall. According to his own messages, Shoigu decided to assassinate Wagner, who refused to obey him. The Russian Defense Ministry has denied, but the ministry's statements are not known to be very credible, to say the least, so Prigozhin's claims do not sound baseless.
A fuel terminal destroyed in battles between the Russian army and the Wagner force, photo: AP
And what about Putin? For many hours he remained silent, but when he appeared on television, he publicly took the side of the Defense Ministry and accused Prigozhin of sticking a knife in the back of the nation. It will be interesting to examine in the future how this accusation will be wrapped up in Prigozhin's being of Jewish blood.
Wagner forces pass checkpoints on the way to Moscow // Photo: Social Networks
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