Almost a decade has passed since General Abdel Fattah el-Sisi came to power in a military coup. July 3, 2013 began as another day of protests against Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi and ended with his dramatic ouster.
For seven months, the Egyptians took to the streets. Some due to Morsi's attempt to change the constitution in the spirit of Islamic Sharia, some due to the energy crisis. Already in the days following the military coup, some suspected that the army intended from the outset to destabilize the regime by playing with gas prices.
IDF Chief of Staff on tour of the Israeli-Egyptian border after the attack // Credit - IDF Spokesperson
A petrol station manager said in 2013: "Before the June 30 protests, I would send two workers to negotiate all night so we would have enough fuel, and it didn't always work. Tonight, both pumps are full and the gas supplier called to ask if I needed more." Like many other sectors, the fuel sector is under the influence of the Egyptian military.
The Muslim Brotherhood did not give up easily. In the weeks following Morsi's ouster, violent clashes took place between their operatives and the security forces, resulting in thousands of deaths. The next step was to make the movement illegal and embark on an unprecedented arrest spree.
A modern and new capital city not far from CairoPhoto: Reuters, Photo: Reuters
A decade later, Sisi faces a similar problem: the Egyptian pound is plummeting and the projects he announced, including highways and new cities, are weighing on the state budget.
The crowning glory of the massive construction boom is the new administrative capital being built east of Cairo, which is several years behind plans. These projects, which are essentially reminiscent of the real estate monsters of Saudi Arabia and the UAE, have drawn sharp criticism from Sisi. Thus, for example, his opponents mention that a huge sum of $ 58 billion is invested in the new capital, a significant part of which comes from the state budget.
A report by the Washington-based POMED think tank describes how, despite Sisi's claim that the state would not pay a penny for the project, most of the money actually came from the public coffers. The report also documents how billions of dollars flowed into the deep pockets of companies close to the government during the construction of the new capital, whether through no-tender contracts or direct budgets, the sale of state land and government-subsidized loans.
"What we are discovering is a state expanding within a state – with resources flowing into the military regime and debts accumulating and imposed on the civilian government," the report said. "The administrative capital and other mega-projects tighten Sisi's grip on power and create bubbles that are about to burst."
On the other hand, another of Sisi's mega-projects is the digging of a second Suez Canal alongside the first. This will double the revenue from ships passing through them to about $13 billion a year. After 12 months of excavations and intensive work, involving 25,8 local workers, he launched the canal about <> years ago.
The accumulation of debt is compounded by the war in Ukraine, which has also hit Egypt. Wheat prices on world markets soared, and the bread subsidy budget grew as well. Therefore, Sisi needs other sources of income more than ever. The solution, it seems, is found in part by rapprochement with former rivals such as Turkey and Iran.
Presidents of Egypt and Iran, photo: AP
Earlier this month, Saudi Arabia's Al Arabiya network reported that it had agreed in principle to establish a committee to examine the resumption of relations between Tehran and Cairo, and the security coordination between them. Warming relations with these countries could help the tourism industry, one of the pillars of the Egyptian economy. On the other hand, the rapprochement with Iran is a cause for concern in Israel.
Causeless abuse
Sisi has also come under criticism over the country's widespread civil rights abuses, an issue that has become a source of tension with the United States as the Democratic Party comes to power. "Human rights in Egypt are at their worst, we haven't reached this stage before," Mohammed Saad Hirla, an Egyptian activist and Middle East expert who was forced to leave the country and is currently living in Sweden, told Israel Hayom. "Right now, in a lot of cases there is abuse for no reason, it's oppression for the sake of oppression only."
Girla also explains what was behind the uprising against the Muslim Brotherhood: "After months under their rule, the vast majority of the masses were convinced that they had no mandate to rule, and therefore the components of society came out against them as one. This union was the key to stopping the Muslim Brotherhood. The Egyptian people, with all its components, became victims of political fraud, since the Brotherhood had nothing but hallucinations. Not a vision and not a plan. This fact united the whole society against them naturally. Sisi is now promoting a unique model of totalitarian rule for himself and the institution to which he belongs.
"So you can understand how a country of 110 million people is on the verge of exploding at any moment, with an enormous amount of rage and hatred. Everything happens because of the aimless oppression. And when the state celebrates the actions of a murderer (the terrorist who carried out the attack on the Egyptian border) and talks about an 'accident he had,' as reported, it is clear that society is officially switching to the model of Hamas, Islamic Jihad, Hezbollah and Iran."
The coup a decade ago. Sisi police push back Morsi supporters in a mosque, Photo: Reuters
Asked about a possible change, he answered: "There is more than one solution, and the Egyptian issue is very complex. One solution is to impose international oversight and oversight on the next presidential election. There is no choice but to try to impose this through the superpowers, because in the next explosion everyone will pay the price." The elections are expected to take place in the first months of 2024. Many predict they will end with a similar outcome of the 2018 elections, when some of the candidates withdrew due to pressure from the government, and Sisi eventually won with about 97% of the vote.
Peace and Break
In contrast to the internal situation, relations between Cairo and Jerusalem have improved significantly over the past decade. Hisam Hassanein is an Egyptian researcher at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD). He writes about relations between Israel and Islamic countries and is also one of the few Egyptian academics to receive their M.A. diploma from Tel Aviv University.
Asked about the factors that influenced relations during the el-Sisi era, Hassanein replied, "Egypt experienced political and socio-economic problems that brought Cairo and Jerusalem closer. Egypt saw Israel as a partner in its war on terror in Sinai and in improving its image in Washington's political circles, when it came to the narrative struggle against the Muslim Brotherhood."
Our relationship to where?
The attack on the Egyptian border, in which three IDF soldiers fell, once again raised the question of the gap between the relationship between the governments and the connection between Israelis and Egyptians. Hassanein explains that some of the steps that can be implemented to bring about rapprochement between peoples and not only between countries include "interactions between people. This is one of the elements missing from the peace between Israel and Egypt. It can happen through tourism, education, culture and most importantly – trade."
In a recent article, the researcher wrote: "It is clear that peace has not succeeded in moderating the hatred for Israel that was widespread in Egyptian culture even before the Camp David Accords. It's time for a new approach that starts in Tel Aviv and not Cairo."
Morsi. He was deposed and died during his trial, Photo: Reuters
Dormant Embassy
Hassanein notes in the article that "Sisi's gestures are not part of an ongoing effort to change Egyptian public opinion. A more pragmatic way to change the discourse on Israel might begin in Tel Aviv, where Cairo maintains a dormant embassy, whose staff is not interested in Israel and does little to promote a warm peace. For example, the embassy does not facilitate visits by Egyptian businessmen and academics who are interested in cooperation."
In a conversation with Israel Hayom, Hassanein explains that Egypt's security establishment is not interested in this. "Historically, past wars have not been forgotten. Politically, they think about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Culturally, if many Egyptians come to Israel and see how good the situation is, some of the poor young people will try to assimilate into Israel illegally – as they are trying in Europe."
Recently, dozens of migrants trying to reach Europe drowned in the Mediterranean Sea off the coast of Greece. Last Friday, the Egyptian Foreign Ministry announced that the ship was carrying illegal migrants to Europe from Libya - carrying hundreds of people of various nationalities - some from Egypt. According to the ministry, the Egyptian embassy in Athens is continuing to search for the many missing people and identify the bodies that were pulled from the water. The ship left Egypt for the city of Tobruk in eastern Libya, where hundreds of Egyptian, Pakistani and Syrian migrants boarded. At sea, an engine malfunction occurred and the ship sank into the depths.
Will this also be the fate of all of Egypt? Sisi promises that despite the challenges, he will be able to steer the country to safety.
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