A little over 22 years ago, the first mortar shell was fired from Gaza in the direction of Netzarim. Israel was surprised and promised to put an end to the phenomenon before it turned into a flood. Similar promises were made after the disengagement from the Gaza Strip: every rocket fire into Israeli territory would be met with a harsh response, it was promised.
Reality taught otherwise: Gaza has improved, armed, and radicalized. The Palestinian Authority was replaced by Hamas, and the political talks were replaced by fire. The one who has been shaping reality ever since is the enemy; As deterred as he may be, he willingly launches and willingly ceases. Israel mainly responds, and initiates only when it is pushed into a corner.
Preparations for launching rockets in Gaza (archive), photo: AP
Judea and Samaria is not fierce in every possible way. Many more Palestinians live there, with a much larger geographic distribution. Many more Jews also live there. Most importantly, it is much closer to population centers in Israel. "The law of Netzarim is the law of Tel Aviv," Ariel Sharon once said in a different context, which does not exist; "The law that envelops the law of Tel Aviv," the country's leaders claim today, and they do not comply either.
Precisely for this reason, Israel cannot allow even a single rocket to grow in the West Bank. Judea and Samaria is not Gaza, as stated, and the envelope is not Tel Aviv. Not because the blood of its inhabitants is less flushed; Because the absorption capacity in the center of the country – which is more populated and more sensitive to effects on the economy and economy – is much smaller. The distance between Ramallah and Jerusalem, between Qalqilya and Kfar Saba, between Tulkarm and Netanya and Hadera, and of course the distance from Tel Aviv – all these promise (or rather threaten) create a reality that Israel will not be able to live with, certainly against the backdrop of the Gaza experience of a small mortar at Netzarim that turns into a large and deadly barrage of rockets aimed at a variety of targets.
Law enveloping Tel Aviv? Netanyahu and Galant, Photo: Alex Kolomoisky
Therefore, the defense establishment invests a special effort in cutting off any effort to manufacture rockets in Judea and Samaria. These attempts are not new; They have existed for two decades or more, with varying intensity, which depends on a variety of factors – the quality and motivation of the terrorist elements on the ground and the means they have, and on the other hand, the quality of Israel's intelligence and counterterrorism. In most cases, the Shin Bet and the IDF interrupted such attempts at the thought and planning stages; Only in a few cases did they move on to the stage of action.
Recently, we have witnessed an increase in attempts to obtain rocket capability in the West Bank as well, as part of the overall effort led by the terrorist organizations to produce attacks. Knowledge is easy to obtain: it exists free on the Internet. The means are also easy to obtain: they are mostly improvised and some are found in every home. There is also no shortage of motivations, money and terrorists.
The defense establishment is investigating: Was there an attempt to launch rockets from Jenin? || Credit: Arab Networks
The combination of all these produces a rather primitive ability in the meantime. This is evidenced by the two rockets launched yesterday. But we must not shy away from this failure: in Gaza, too, they started with failures. Over time, knowledge is accumulated, and with it experience and expertise. Next time the rocket will fly to 200 meters and then to 500 meters, and in the end it will hit.
This is a threat that still seems far away, but if it is not steadily eliminated, it will materialize. Therefore, the Shin Bet and the IDF do well to put the rocket threat at the top of their list of missions, alongside thwarting terrorist attacks. This justifies every effort, every operation, and every force that will lead to terrorists, materials and homes where rockets are manufactured. As with terrorism, there will be no zbang here and we are done; Since knowledge exists, the means are available and sabotage and motivation will always be. The challenge is not the rocket that was thwarted yesterday, but the one that will be created and God forbid launched tomorrow.
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