The global arms race does not skip the Middle East. Iran, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Lebanon and even Egypt are looking for new military technology to enhance their capabilities. Israel is preparing for new threats, such as the hypersonic missile that Iran claims to be developing, as well as technology that is almost considered "old" – drones, drones and precision missiles.
Last week, Rafael presented its answer to the hypersonic missiles that Iran announced it was developing. In fact, Tehran sent a PR photo of a missile, but Israel does not believe it already has the technology, which does not prevent it from arming itself accordingly.
More pictures than capable. Model hypersonic missile in Tehran, photo: Reuters
Meanwhile, in the Persian Gulf region, Saudi Arabia is demanding commitments from the United States for arms deals, authorization for civilian nuclear development, and security guarantees vis-à-vis Iran. Iran's displays of purpose regarding the development of missiles and drones already being tested in Ukraine are leading Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Egypt to equip themselves in what appears to be an arms race underway in the Middle East. The stars: Iran and Israel, but the surrounding countries are also preparing for a rainy day.
Iran is arming the region
Brig. Gen. (res.) Yossi Kuperwasser, former head of the Military Intelligence Research Department and a senior researcher at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, told Israel Hayom that "there is a significant arms race in the region, the most prominent of which is Iran, which manufactures its own weapons based on technology it received from foreign elements. They are making a significant effort in the field of acquiring advanced missiles, and therefore the range of missiles they are developing is very wide, and there is also a Russian interest in acquiring these missiles. The Iranians have shown the ability to produce cruise missiles and have improved their accuracy over time – this is a threat that should not be taken lightly."
Map of the arms race, photo: Reuters, AFP, GettyImages, Ministry of Defence, AP
Iran's armament throws as far as Hezbollah in the north, which has tens of thousands of Iranian-made missiles, and now an attempt is also being made to make them accurate. The activity attributed by foreign sources to Israel in Syria is intended, among other things, to prevent precisely this armament effort, which, according to Kuperwasser, is supposed to "bother Israel greatly."
The researcher notes that alongside the Iranian arms race (and we haven't said a word about the nuclear program yet), countries considered pragmatic are also working in this direction: "Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar are conducting accelerated armament efforts that are not directed against us, but given the horizon of stability and possible change, there is room for Israel to show concern in this case as well."
"A threat that should not be taken lightly", Krufwasser, photo: Joshua Yosef
Dr. Joshua Kalisky, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies near Tel Aviv University, also warns of the buildup around us: "Saudi Arabia already has sophisticated intelligence planes, and it demands more. These tribes can quarrel among themselves, but what unites them in the end is hatred of Israel."
Dr. Kalisky divides the armament efforts around us into several layers: conventional, semi-conventional, and unconventional, nuclear. "The conventional race really stems from what's happening between Russia and Ukraine. Countries see that with simple and relatively inexpensive weapons, war can be defeated. The paradigm has actually changed, without tank convoys – more drones and drones that can stop entire convoys," explains Dr. Kalisky. "It's also an arms race for missiles, which are simple weapons to operate: you don't need airports, skilled pilots, but a small team of people and very simple operation."
Will defeat the following systems, UAV, photo: AFP
The Hypersonic Threat
As for the hypersonic missiles, Dr. Kalisky says: "Anyone who observes the battlefield in Ukraine sees that these weapons work and have great damage and intimidation potential. It's actually a missile that can reach Israel from Iran in 4-3 minutes, it's scary." Today, there is definitely such a missile only for Russia and China, and as for its presence in Iranian hands, opinions are divided.
Kuperwasser: "Regarding the hypersonic missiles, the US Congress is trying to impose international restrictions or even a treaty on it, but in the meantime certain countries continue to run with it, such as Russia, China and the United States. As for Iran, from the pictures so far it seems that it is not yet a hypersonic missile, but we should always be concerned and not underestimate. Even if it's not real, the enemy has capabilities. Iran is a missile superpower, and even if that doesn't work right now, we need to take this threat seriously."
"Missile superpower, Iranian missile, photo: AP
The answer to drones
In Israel, the defense industries are not sitting on the sidelines. Israeli developments place it at the forefront of technology and find their way to countries around the world, as we will see just this week at the Paris Air Show.
In a conversation with Rafael's Senior Vice President of Marketing and Business Development, Ariel Caro, he describes this race from the economic side. "In the face of a wide range of threats that the world is starting to encounter now, our industries already have the solutions. One example is multi-layered air defense – from the level of drones that the whole world is waking up to after Ukraine, to the Iron Dome and the connection to laser weapons, in which Israel is a world leader."
"There are solutions", Ariel Caro, photo: Coco
The David's Sling system, used in Operation Shield and Arrow in Gaza, also intrigues the world. Caro explains: "Israel is taking advantage of its technological advantage. When you develop systems you don't develop them for the current threats, you have to be a few steps ahead of the next threat. Our vision is ten years ahead, and to provide solutions to Israel and export them before the threat meets us."
Armament or deterrence?
As for the question of Israeli deterrence vis-à-vis Hezbollah, Kuperwasser says: "At this stage, Hezbollah is deterred from launching a full military attack, but is it deterred by limited measures, such as allowing the Palestinians to continue to equip themselves? Fewer. We are paying the price for the hesitation we showed in the gas agreement with Lebanon. It was a move that strengthened Hezbollah's sense of power.
"We need to create a balance of deterrence and not attack warehouse-warehouse, there is no end to it. We must also demonstrate our capabilities from time to time – launching satellites into space, etc. However, the chances of us being dragged into the battle are not great because the enemies around us know our capabilities. Nasrallah is still hiding in a bunker.
"Hezbollah has between 120,150 and <>,<> missiles, many of them accurate. It's potentially dangerous. Lebanon is an Iranian branch that will be ready for action whenever it is told. On the other hand, Syria does not pose a significant threat because it is split with an outdated army."
"Iranian branch", Hezbollah fighters,
Regarding the rocket knowledge found in Gaza that penetrates Samaria as well, Dr. Kalisky says, "The rocket knowledge in the Gaza Strip is Iranian knowledge that reached there by smuggling and experts, and is produced using lathes. We are certainly liable to see high-trajectory fire into Afula and communities in the north. There were things that never happened. In the 70s, Katyusha rockets were fired at Petah Tikva from the Jordan Valley, killing one person. Our control of Judea and Samaria leads us to planners and manufacturers, and currently thwarts this threat."
One of the most prominent areas of armament is the field of UAVs. The Iranians are developing many types that Russia is acquiring for the war in Ukraine. According to Kuperwasser, "The Iranians have already proven their capabilities in this area with attacks on Saudi oil facilities in 2019. In this regard, we have a good solution – laser developments and advanced interception devices."
Realistic scenario
According to Caro, the Israeli developments are sought after by European countries, which see the battlefield near their homes: "The Russia-Ukraine war has made it clear to them that the scenario of war on European soil is realistic, and they have operational gaps. They need a technological advantage that Israel has, and there is a big increase in demand.
created demand for Israeli weapons, Russia-Ukraine war,
"Over the years, Rafael has specialized in precision and high-quality electro-optic guided munitions. Our developments are also required because of the large ranges – in Europe there is a demand for Spike missiles and similar systems, and the Paris Salon is a platform to expose these capabilities to many customers."
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