The thwarting of the attack in Cyprus raises several immediate conclusions, some of which are gratifying and some of which are extremely worrying. First, it has been proven once again that the Mossad possesses exceptional intelligence capabilities in the Iranian arena at all levels – from familiarity with Iran's operative mechanisms and personalities, through the routes of movement, smuggling, and operation, to its ability to monitor in real time on the ground. This is a rare capability that clearly saves lives, sometimes shared by other elements in the Israeli intelligence community.
Special documentation: Head of IRGC assassin squad planning terrorist attack in Cyprus
The second conclusion – and it's worth knocking on every piece of wood in the vicinity – is that since the 2012 terrorist attack in Burgas, Bulgaria, Iran has failed in all its attempts to kill Israelis around the world. And it's not that there haven't been attempts; During this period, dozens of attacks were thwarted, sometimes by a thread or during hair-raising operations, such as last summer in Istanbul.
The third is that the Mossad has intimate cooperation with intelligence services and internal security apparatuses around the world, especially in the region. It helped the thwarting in Istanbul and the thwarting in Georgia earlier this year, and it also helped the current thwarting in Cyprus. This is a strategic asset of the highest order that must continue to be nurtured, and which is often conducted separately from official relations between the countries.
"Hopefully, this achievement will also lead to significant deterrence against senior officials." Iran's leaders (archive), photo: AP
Fourth, the Mossad has an impressive ability to operate on Iranian soil. There has been quite a bit of proof of this in the past – explosions, attacks and assassinations – but arresting and interrogating a central element in the attack, almost in real time, and extracting an incriminating confession, including names, is a rare achievement. It is hoped that this achievement will also lead to significant deterrence against senior Iranian officials and operatives, who will reduce their actions for fear of being harmed.
The fifth is that Iran is determined to kill Israelis. Hossein Taib, the head of the Revolutionary Guards' intelligence apparatus who was ousted after the debacle in Istanbul last year, was replaced by Mohammed Kadhimi, who has now failed. The names may change, but the Iranian motivation exists, partly because Iran does not pay any price for its attempts to carry out attacks with the aim of killing Israelis.
"The names may change, but the Iranian motivation is there." (Archive), photo: AFP
Sixth, the world is indifferent to this Iranian effort. The Mossad reveals, presents incriminating intelligence in every possible language, passes it on to captains and heads of security services in increasingly friendly countries, but receives nothing other than empathy. This means that Iran will continue to try, and the gap between it and success lies in the capabilities of the Mossad, which so far has the upper hand.
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