A moment after the Wagner force's rebellion against Russia's Defense Ministry ended, Putin and his propagandists launched an explanatory blitz whose sole purpose is one: to forget as quickly as possible the total lack of governance that emerged during the uprising and to inculcate the message that "the unity of the nation has triumphed over division."
The Foreign Ministry in Moscow also launched its own blitz – a round of phone calls to Wagner's clients in Syria and especially in African countries, in which it was explained to the local rulers: Wagner's activity would continue, although now the militants would obey the Kremlin directly.
Minister Lavrov's briefing on continued activity in Africa | Reuters
Indeed, in the week since the uprising, some 6,000 Wagner men stationed in African countries have not experienced the shocks of their Russian counterparts. "We have been monitoring the consequences of the revolt in the region and so far we have not seen any significant change, except for rumors of movements in Libya," said the AEOW, which monitors Wagner's activities in Africa and investigates it, in response to a request from Israel Hayom. "According to our contacts on the ground, in Mali and the Central African Republic, it's business as usual."
Wagner Rush, Yevgeny Prigozhin, photo: AP
A brief background is required here. Wagner is a mercenary force, founded under the supervision of Russian military intelligence to fight low-signature against Ukrainians in occupied Donbass back in 2014. From there he expanded his activity to Syria, where he fought against ISIS on behalf of the Assad regime – and in return received a concession to extract oil from the deposits he liberated from the extremists.
Omar al-Bashir in 2019. Invited Wagner, Photo: AFP
Wagner arrived in Africa in 2017, when a force of 500 helped Omar al-Bashir quell the rebellions against him – again, with a handsome return: Prigozhin got exclusive gold mining rights in Sudan through M-Invest.
The main centers of Wagner's activity in Africa (and other countries with a Russian presence),
Sudan was just the beginning. In 2017, Moscow took advantage of the withdrawal of French forces from the Central African Republic, moved to lift the embargo on arms to local ruler Postin-Arcange Touadera and sent Wagner's "military instructors" to fight rebel groups.
Gold search in the Central African Republic (archive), photo: Reuters
Wagner's militants were able to entrench Touadera's rule, even on a personal level – his head of security and some of the crew are Russian militants – and in return, Wagner won a gold mine, literally: exclusive rights to gold and diamond mining, as well as a 30-year concession to cut down tropical trees in the Congo River basin, which are in huge demand in the West and among wealthy customers in the Gulf.
A demonstration in favor of a Russian presence in Bangi, the capital of the Central African Republic, in March this year, photo: AFP
AEOW estimates that using 30% of the trees in the Congo Basin would yield Wagner $890 million in net profit. According to the Financial Times, during his years in Africa before the invasion of Ukraine last year, Prigozhin earned $250 million.
Not surprisingly – certainly for those who follow the reports of Wagner's crimes in Ukraine – the company's militants also "excelled" in Africa. When deployed in Libya in 2019 to assist rebel General Khalifa Haftar, Wagner used to mine populated areas.
Wagner people in Mali. The number of civilian dead has soared, Photo: AP
In 2020, some 1,000 mercenaries arrived in coup-torn Mali to help the military junta in the fight against Islamists, and the civilian death toll soared abruptly.
According to the UN report, in just one counter-terrorism operation, Wagner helicopters and his men attacked the town of Moreh, killing more than 400 non-combatants. "Civilian casualties in Mali have risen disproportionately since Wagner's arrival, similar to similar patterns of violence against locals recorded in the Central African Republic, Libya, Syria and Ukraine," wrote Paul Stronsky, a senior research fellow at the Carnegie Institution.
Junta supporters in Burkina Faso and the Russian flag, photo: AP
Now Wagner has his eyes set on Burkina Faso, Mali's neighbor where government stability has also been forgotten and, according to the president of neighboring Ghana, Russian militants have already arrived. Junta chiefs in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso's capital, deny it.
What is the secret of the success of the Frigozhin Empire on the continent? Its activities under Russia's umbrella and for its strategic goals in Africa. "Wagner has become a very useful tool for the Russian Foreign Ministry's policy in Africa: achieving significant influence at limited costs," Dr. Joseph Siegel, head of research at the Institute for African Studies at the Defense University in Washington, D.C., told Israel Hayom. "Russia is achieving this goal even though it invests very little in Africa – less than 1% of the continent's total direct investment. Therefore, it is reasonable to assume that Russia will not give up this tool, certainly given its current international status. Foreign Minister Lavrov said Wagner and the Russian government would continue to "support" partner regimes in Africa.
Dr. Joseph Siegel, National Security University, Washington, D.C., photo: Courtesy of the subject
"The question is how this will be done. The Russian government can attract all the avenues Wagner is working to gain influence in Africa: a combination of militia deployment, disinformation, election interference and natural resources deals to maintain isolated regimes lacking popular support. However, the Russian government does not have the networks, agility and space for denial that Prigozhin has. Prigozhin's ouster, therefore, could be costly in terms of Moscow's influence. Alongside the influence, Prigozhin's operations in Africa brought with it billions of dollars in profits from the gold and diamond mining businesses. To be sure, many of Russia's ruling elite would love to have a chance to benefit from these resources, but they don't have the extensive business network that allows Prigozhin to make a profit."
According to Dr. Siegel, from a more panoramic perspective, Wagner's activity – which only last week, by the way, Putin admitted that Russia invested tens of billions of rubles in it – fits well with Moscow's strategic goals in Africa. "The first objective is to establish itself along the southern shores of the Mediterranean, threatening NATO's southern flank and disrupting maritime traffic in the region.
"Russia's second goal is to strengthen its status as a superpower whose interests must be taken into account. This is reinforced by Russia's isolation. The reluctance of many African leaders to condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine at the United Nations serves as tangible evidence of this. The third goal is to undermine democracy and normalize autocracy on the continent. Russia has often gained influence among autocratic regimes that are not accountable (to the public). By rushing to the aid of these unpopular regimes and defending them from sanctions and condemnations at the Security Council, Russia was able to gain influence quickly and without significant investment. Advancing these regimes also serves Russia's interest in preventing democratic revolutions from reaping successes."
The fourth goal, according to Dr. Siegel, is to reshape the UN-based world order, which respects territorial integrity, sovereignty and the upholding of the rule of law. The violation of these values enabled the invasion of Ukraine. "If Russia succeeds in gaining support for its aggressive and imperial activities, it will pose a challenge to the UN law-based system against which Putin has long protested. Russia is in an inferior position in the current system, so Putin is trying to shape a world order in which the right of the strong will govern and Russia can make deals with regimes that violate UN norms without reputational or financial risks. The more regimes in Africa that agree with this worldview, the more validity it will be."
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