"Israel must evacuate Hezbollah's tents from the northern border even at the cost of a limited confrontation," reads a position paper by the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) distributed to decision makers this morning.
Convoy of Hezbollah flags near the border in Metulla
The tents were erected on the Israeli side of the Blue Line, but so far Israel has decided not to remove the tents by force, but to act through diplomatic channels. In this context, an appeal was made to the UN and the United States to convey messages to the Lebanese side so that it would act itself to remove the tents. The position paper states that "the erection of the tents and Hezbollah's determination not to remove them reflect an increase in Hezbollah's self-confidence vis-à-vis Israel in recent times and a greater boldness on its part, while being willing to take risks."
"The balance of deterrence has eroded"
While Israel is delaying decisive action against the tents on its border, the institute's paper stated, "We are in the process of eroding Israel's deterrence vis-à-vis Hezbollah. He is more daring and acts more blatantly than before. The ongoing process of Hezbollah's force buildup, and the interpretation of our forces' actions as avoiding friction with the organization, are leading to a strategically serious situation. A state of excessive self-confidence that can lead to escalation. Whether Hezbollah acts out of distress in light of the difficult situation in Lebanon, and seeks to justify its existence, or whether it acts out of arrogance and violated self-confidence, the trend is dangerous and must be stopped."
The Israeli-Lebanese border, photo: Eyal Margolin - Genie
The text of the recommendations stated, "As far as Israel is concerned, in the circumstances that have arisen, it is very important not to play into Hezbollah's hands. Israel must act in every possible way to remove Hezbollah's tents on Har Dov. This is for two main reasons: on the ground level, in light of the need to stop Hezbollah's efforts to expand its presence near the border. Hezbollah is trying to gradually create a new reality, this time by penetrating Israel's sovereign sphere – a situation to which Israel cannot accept. On the strategic level, a show of strength and determination is required on Israel's part in order to improve the "balance of deterrence" vis-à-vis Hezbollah, which has eroded recently."
In conclusion, it was written that the political process must be exhausted but delimited in time, thus gaining international recognition and support for Israel's position and its demands to dismantle the tents. "Assuming that after the exposure of the incident, the chances of success of the diplomatic move are extremely low, Israeli action should be taken to remove the tents, even at the cost of deteriorating into a limited conflict on the ground. The method of evacuation and the manner of execution should combine subterfuge on the one hand, but determination and demonstration of strength that exceeds Hezbollah's expectations."
Wrong? We'll fix it! If you find a mistake in the article, please share with us