More than 1,100 intelligence personnel serving in the reserves in Unit 8200 warn that if the coalition's intention to pass the first reading of the bill to abolish the reasonableness grounds is realized tomorrow (Monday), they will stop volunteering for the IDF.
The IDF is preparing for the possibility that as the legislation progresses, not only the reservists will protest, and we may also see similar calls in the standing army and among those serving in the regular army. Another concern is a decline in motivation to enlist in the IDF against the background of the government's moves.
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But this is not the only thing troubling the IDF in the context of the broader protests. The defense establishment notes that the issue of the internal rift among the people and the widespread protests are at the heart of the assessment of the situation of Israel's enemies (as opposed to the internal riots in Iran attested to Iran's internal situation only a few months ago). Intelligence reports indicate that the internal public atmosphere in Israel and the threats of reservists not to report on the day of orders greatly reflect on Israeli deterrence in the region and weaken it.
Israel believes that the internal rift gives a tailwind to terrorist elements such as Hezbollah and Iran to try to harm Israel precisely when it is divided and divided from within. This is one of the reasons why the coming period may be very tense from a security perspective – both in the West Bank and in an even more troubling arena – the Lebanon sector, where the potential is most explosive.
Just last Thursday, an anti-tank missile was fired at the village of Rajar, hitting the fence surrounding the village, and shrapnel fell on both sides of the border. It caused no casualties, and so far it has not been reported who carried out the shooting, although cautious assessments have been made that it was not Hezbollah. The IDF responded by firing 15 mortar shells into Lebanese territory, and it took it a long time to understand that it was an anti-tank rule.
The anti-tank fire joins a series of incidents between Israel and Hezbollah in recent months, including the detonation of an IED in Megiddo planted by a man sent by Hezbollah from Lebanon, and the firing of 28 rockets from Lebanon into the Upper Galilee on the first day of Passover. Add to this the erection of two tents in the village of Rajar a few weeks ago, one of which was voluntarily evacuated, but the other still remains in the area, while Israel tries to find "diplomatic" ways to evacuate it. At this stage, it seems that the longer the affair, the more Israeli deterrence will erode, and it will be harder for Hezbollah to get down from the tall tree it climbed.
Israel believes that Hezbollah is not interested in war with Israel at this time, and the truth is that the tens of thousands of rockets in its possession deter Israel from war as well. But given Hezbollah's growing self-confidence, it is very likely that the next provocation is around the corner, and there is a possibility that the next action by the terrorist organization will require Israel to respond more severely, which could lead to an exchange of blows and even several days of battle, which could develop into a third Lebanon war.
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