"Hezbollah's conduct in recent months attests to a change in the organization's policy, a change in the equation that has existed since the end of the Second Lebanon War. It is believed that Nasrallah received the green light from the Iranians to move from force buildup to war, to preparation for war.
This does not mean that the war will be tomorrow morning, but the northern border could gradually become a combat zone similar in characteristics to the security zone before the IDF's withdrawal from Lebanon (May 2000). It will start with small incidents – such as the ones we have seen recently – such as the erection of tents, anti-tank fire and penetration deep into Israeli territory in order to place an IED on a main road, and may increase."
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These harsh remarks, which are not explicitly said by the defense establishment, were told by Col. (res.) Ronen Cohen, a former senior official in the IDF's intelligence division who has known Hezbollah for nearly 40 years.
Policy Change - Iranian Intervention
A troubled Cohen wants every citizen of Israel to read these words, especially decision makers. This is said from the blood of his heart, as someone who began his acquaintance with Hezbollah already in the 80s, when the terrorist organization was still in its infancy.
According to Cohen, the IDF's biggest problem will not be the tens of thousands of rockets, but rather "the penetration of Radwan forces into Israeli territory, the occupation and possession of areas in Israeli territory until the end of the war, and the IDF will find it difficult to reconquer these areas when the war clock ticks ahead of the ceasefire, in which case, Israel will find itself in a serious strategic problem."
IDF soldiers on the northern border with Lebanon, photo: AFP
Unlike most of today's IDF command avenues, Cohen served in the IDF during the security zone, when encounters with Hezbollah terrorists were routine, and in the course of his various duties he became familiar with the organization's methods of operation. As a senior official in the Research Department, he also became familiar with the nuances of Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah's speeches, after serving in his last positions in the army as head of a terrorist arena and deputy head of the research division at Military Intelligence.
Cohen, who has never stopped monitoring Hezbollah, believes that the change in policy stems from the Iranian regime's understanding that not only is it closer than ever to achieving nuclear capability, but that at this stage there are no checks on the part of the United States that will prevent it from meeting its goals.
Fireworks on the Lebanese border | Arab networks
"Iran, which sees Hezbollah as a forward arm against Israel, quickly learned the most important lesson from the Second Lebanon War, which is that under no circumstances should Nasrallah be allowed to 'waste' the organization's weapons again on marginal tactical matters, but rather keep it until nuclear capability is achieved," he explains.
"Therefore, the policy that was set was based on the strict adherence not to escalate the situation along the border with Israel in order not to plunge the region into war and to save the arsenal of weapons for 'doomsday.'"
Stable deterrence consciousness
During the 17 years that have passed since the Second Lebanon War, the defense establishment has claimed that the great damage caused to Lebanon during that war created in Nasrallah a stable consciousness of deterrence, which he has not forgotten. According to Cohen, however, it is convenient for Israel to portray Nasrallah's reluctance to enter the conflict as Israeli deterrence, when in practice the terrorist organization is much more deterred than Iranian anger after that war.
Hezbollah Secretary General Nasrallah, photo: AFP
"After the Second Lebanon War, the Iranians were furious with Nasrallah, and he received a ringing slap from them for deteriorating the situation into war. They almost fired him," he said.
"After the war, Iranian money went first to rehabilitating Hezbollah, and only then to rebuilding the ruins in Lebanon. And that is why even when we carried out harsh actions as far as it was concerned, Hezbollah did not respond. Hezbollah is much more deterred by Iran than by us."
Today, when Iran has become a nuclear threshold state and has gained great self-confidence, for the first time it is changing the equation and giving Nasrallah the green light to prepare for war.
From Force Building to Real War Preparedness
According to Col. Cohen, if until now the Iranians had "held Nasrallah by the throat," they have now instructed him to prepare for war. "It's really a transition from force buildup to war, to preparing for war," he says. "The Iranians are on the verge of a nuclear program, and they are telling Nasrallah to prepare for war – even if it takes him six months or a year."
Hezbollah in a show of force. May 2023, Photo: AP
Against this background, he notes, one must see the chain of recent events along the border, including the erection of tents in Israeli territory, the anti-tank fire, the terrorist's infiltration into Megiddo, as well as the establishment of dozens of Hezbollah posts along the border in recent months. These, he says, constitute a gradual and controlled release of restraints.
"It's not that until now Hezbollah hasn't built up its strength, but here we are talking about the transition from force buildup to preparation for war," he stressed. According to Cohen, this does not mean a war "tomorrow morning," but in the foreseeable period of time, it is likely that we will see a change in the reality to which we have become accustomed in recent years along the Lebanese border.
"Little by little we can reach a war of attrition on the border, similar to the one the IDF faced during the period of the security zone. And in that case, it would be much easier for them to get into the war."
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"It won't happen now, it's a matter of time. But in general, I don't remember in recent years such a complex security period, of fronts in all directions – in the Golan Heights, Hamas in Gaza, Judea and Samaria and more."
According to him, alongside the change in the military aspect, Nasrallah is building the "justification" for what is happening along the border with Israel in the internal Lebanese and Arab arenas, claiming the struggle to return the Lebanese territories that Israel occupied and stole back in 48.
Preparing for the implementation of the next stage
In fact, "Nasrallah wants to change the reality on the northern border, and is preparing to implement the next stage of the Hezbollah Charter, which is the return of the Lebanese territories that Israel occupied in 1948. There's a reason he mentions the border issue in his recent speeches," Cohen said.
The scene of the incident on the Lebanese border, photo: Amir Shoshani
According to him, there is no doubt that Israel's enemies are also looking at the precarious internal situation in Israel, but "even if the demonstrations end and business in Israel calms down, a change in strategic policy on the part of Iran and Hezbollah is a bigger event than that, and even if the demonstrations in Israel may be a catalyst, it is just the addition, the whipped cream on the cake."
Regarding the nature of the next war against Hezbollah, he noted that "ostensibly, the threats regarding the invasion of Israel by Radwan forces are perceived as an addition to the organization's missile effort, but this is not the case."
"Let's imagine how the next war will end," Cohen explains. "Since the end of the great wars, starting in the 80s, we have become accustomed to wars not being decided. The recent clashes in Gaza ended with Egyptian involvement, with Israel getting down on all fours so that Hamas would accept some conditions, and even when we tried to reach a decisive victory in the Second Lebanon War, we did not succeed."
Hezbollah military exercise on the Israeli-Lebanese border (archive), photo: AP
"But," Cohen qualifies. "There is a huge difference between ending the war in enemy territory and ending it with the enemy in our territory. It has never happened that a guerrilla organization managed to conquer territory, certainly not of a Western power like Israel."
"I really don't rule out the possibility that the next war will end when they sit firmly in our territory, and we have wounded, dead and abducted, including civilians from communities near the border. It's a completely different movie. It's not just a tactical issue, it's strategic. Nasrallah believes that if he ends the next war with his people on our territory, he will be able to enter negotiations based on the demand to change the international border," he said.
Learning from the Egyptian Model
In this context, Cohen notes that Israel must study the Egyptian model well on the eve of the Yom Kippur War in 1973.
Convoy of Hezbollah flags near the border in Metulla | Arab networks
"Shazli and Sadat have accustomed us to routine deployment of military forces along the Canal, so that on the day of order it will be easy for you to quickly launch an offensive, as the Egyptian commandos did when crossing the Canal. This is a model that fits Hezbollah's conduct today."
"Nasrallah's statements must be addressed, because over the years it has been proven that his statements are true," he notes. "In retrospect, he likes to say, 'I told you so' – the same was true with the abductees and other actions."
According to Cohen, although the Israeli public has heard a lot about Hezbollah's tens of thousands of Katyushas, rockets and precision missiles, the real problem Israel will encounter in the next war with Lebanon will be the organization's ground effort.
Hezbollah knows how to surprise Israel
The IDF, of course, is attentive to threats coming from Lebanon, and in recent years has been busy building a barrier along the border to prevent the planned invasion by Radwan's forces. But as we have already seen, Hezbollah knows how to surprise Israel, and its operatives manage to penetrate its territory – as the Palestinian terrorist who infiltrated Israel from Lebanese territory, planted an IED at the Megiddo junction, and tried to return to Lebanon proved recently.
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"The soldiers and commanders in the IDF today don't know Lebanon, they didn't fight it. I don't disparage elite and good units in the IDF, but the state of the ground army is not great, as we saw in the recent incident on the Egyptian border. I don't think we'll be able to get the Radwan forces out of our territory in two or three weeks. Our army is not sure that we are ready for this."
Without any intelligence knowledge, Cohen does not rule out the possibility that Hezbollah operatives patrolled our territory, prepared anti-tank and sniper positions for themselves, and planted IEDs for the day of command.
"That's just my assessment," he notes. "In light of the tunnels he dug into Israeli territory, and the terrorist who managed to penetrate as far as Megiddo with an IED and an electric bicycle – I really don't rule out the fact that they made preparations in our territory. I am a graduate of Lebanon, and I remember the frightened and shocked squads that infiltrated our territory."
High readiness to perform
"Even when an Israeli soldier crosses into Lebanese territory for the first time, he is shocked because he doesn't know the area. But suddenly someone who had traveled dozens of kilometers from the border entered Israel, and with nonchalance, great courage and confidence he tries to return to Lebanon. They feel safe in our territory, and I appreciate that they are highly prepared to carry out."
Cohen hopes that whoever needs to read this article, and maybe that way he will be able to ring the bells.
Work on the fence on the border with Lebanon, photo: Eyal Margolin - Genie
"Anyone who didn't grow up in Lebanon like my generation doesn't really understand things. The farther we get from Lebanon, the less prepared the army is to deal with Hezbollah. It made its mark back in 2006, and today the situation is much worse."
"Therefore, there is a chance that Hezbollah's move will succeed. In the near future, the transitional period before the war, all sorts of different events can take place, to the point of guerrilla warfare along the border, when Hezbollah doesn't really care if we deteriorate into war."
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